Philadelphia Phillies 2017 Team Preview: Additions, Subtractions, Outlook

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Coming off four consecutive losing seasons, the 2017 Phillies are not likely to snap that streak this year but appear to have a promising future.

The Phillies franchise has had two stretches during which they were regular playoff contenders. They made the post-season six times in eight years from 1976 to 1983, winning the World Series in 1980, then made the post-season again five years in a row from 2007 to 2011, with another World Series title in 2008. The 2011 team at the very end of that 2007 to 2011 stretch won the most games in franchise history, but lost in the NLDS to the St. Louis Cardinals. They haven’t sniffed the playoffs since.

One of the problems the Phillies had after being so successful was relying on the same core group of players as they aged beyond their peaks. The 2012 team had seven regular position players who were 31 years old or older. The 2014 team had a couple more young players mixed in but still had five regulars who were now 34 years old or older, including the three key position players during their recent glory years—Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard. It wasn’t until 2015 that they broke up this trio and went young, except for Ryan Howard and his albatross contract, which was impossible to move.

Last year’s regular lineup was almost all players under 30. Ryan Howard still got 362 plate appearances, but the 2016 Phillies were the team of Odubel Herrera (24 years old), Cesar Hernandez (26) and Tommy Joseph (24). Their pitching rotation was also young, with only 29-year-old Jeremy Hellickson being older than 26. The regular late-inning relievers were Jeanmar Gomez (28 years old), Hector Neris (27 years old) and David Hernandez (31 years old).

The Phillies got off to a good start last year. They peaked at seven games over .500 when they were 24-17 on May 18, and were at .500 until the very end of May. From that point on, it was a struggle. They had an ugly June, going 9-19, then were able to tread water in July and August (a combined 25-28), before going 11-18 in September and October. They ended up in fourth place, 24 games behind the Washington Nationals (but ahead of the Atlanta Braves, so there’s that).

So, how do the Phillies look for 2017? What were their important additions and subtractions? How does their lineup look? What are the expectations for 2017? Read on to find out.

Offseason Additions

Outfielder Howie Kendrick—In November, the Phillies acquired Howie Kendrick from the Los Angeles Dodgers for Darin Ruf and Darnell Sweeney. After primarily playing second base for most of his career, last year Kendrick played more games in left field for the Dodgers than anywhere else and will continue to play left field on the Phillies.

Unfortunately, last year was the worst full season of his career and he’s not getting any younger. For the first time since 2010, he was a below-average hitter and his defense in left field didn’t make up for it. He has a history of hitting lefties slightly better than righties (11 percent better than league average against left-handed pitchers compared to 4 percent better than league average against righties), but last year he was actually much worse against lefties than righties.

Outfielder Michael Saunders—Saunders was signed as a free agent in January. Back in the day, the Seattle Mariners had high hopes for Saunders. After too many injuries prevented Saunders from becoming a solid, everyday player, the M’s finally gave up on him before the 2015 season when they traded him to the Blue Jays for J.A. Happ. He was injured and missed most of that season, but came back last year to have a good season with the bat. He had a career high 24 home runs and tied his career best with 57 RBI. Unfortunately, he rated very poorly on defense. If that continues, he won’t help the Phillies’ young pitching staff.

Starting Pitcher Clay Buchholz—Buccholz was traded by the Red Sox to the Phillies for minor leaguer Josh Tobias in December. When you look at his numbers, you see why the Red Sox were frustrated with him. Over the last six years, he’s had the following ERAs: 3.48, 4.56, 1.74, 5.34, 3.26, 4.78. That’s a roller-coaster ride. The same can be said for his strikeout rate, which has bounced from 16.1 percent to 23.1 to 17.9 to 22.8 to 15.8 percent.

Projections use a player’s last three years and some regression to predict what a player will do, but Buchholz defies prediction. He doesn’t seem to have an average season. He’s either good or bad. If you believe in an odd year/even year pattern, then this will be one of his good years.

Relief Pitcher Joaquin Benoit—Benoit will turn 40 in July but it still looks like he has gas left in the tank. Last year he had a 2.81 ERA and struck out 25.5 percent of the hitters he faced. His walk rate was higher than usual, but he can still be a serviceable setup man.

Relief Pitcher Pat Neshek—Neshek should have a label on him for all managers to read: “Not for use against left-handed hitters.” Last year he allowed lefties to hit .240/.321/.646 against him, while righties hit just .169/.209/.254. If you’re in a tight spot and need to get a right-handed hitter out, Neshek’s your man.

Hitting Coach Matt Stairs—It’s hard to know how much a hitting coach can help a team, but the Phillies could definitely use the help. They ranked last in the major leagues in runs per game and slugging percentage last year, and second-to-last in on-base percentage. Of course, talent means much more than a hitting coach, but Stairs will do what he can to change the mindset of the team’s hitters.

Offseason Subtractions

Catcher Carlos Ruiz—Ruiz was traded last August after more than 10 years with the Phillies. Even at the age of 37, Ruiz had a good enough on-base percentage to grade out nearly average as a hitter when league and ballpark effects are taken into account. He was also a positive behind the plate and a popular player in Philly.

First Baseman Ryan Howard—For all the criticism Ryan Howard has received over the last half-decade, he seems like a genuinely nice guy. And he was a good player for five years early in his career. It’s just that the contract he signed may have been the worst contract in baseball history. In April of 2010, he signed a five-year, $125 million contract extension. According to FanGraphs WAR, he hasn’t had a season since he signed that contract during which he was even league average. In four of those seasons, he was below replacement-level.

There’s just no way around how bad he was in the last half of his career. But, to end this on a brighter note, he was one of the team’s most charitable athletes and volunteered in the community regularly.

Relief Pitcher David Hernandez—Hernandez was the second-most used reliever in the Phillies bullpen last year, and was near the top of the list in strikeout rate, but the Phillies let him go and he signed a deal with the San Francisco Giants for $1.5 million if he makes the major league roster. Meanwhile, the Phillies will pay Joaquin Benoit ($7.5 million) almost twice as much as Hernandez earned last year ($3.9 million). They’ll also pay Pat Neshek $6.5 million. I’m not sure there’s enough difference among the three relievers for this to be a good idea, but at least it’s not my money they’re spending.

Outfielder Peter Bourjos—Bourjos only spent one year in Philadelphia before leaving as a free agent in the off-season. He was below average with the bat and, despite his reputation for being an excellent fielder, graded out below average with the glove. He took his talents to the South Side (White Sox).

Hitting Coach Steve Henderson—Henderson had been with the Phillies since 2012 before getting the axe at the end of last season. The Phillies scored the fewest runs in baseball last year, not that it can all be blamed on the hitting coach. You can only do so much with the talent you’re given.

Projected Lineup/Starting Rotation/Bullpen

Based on FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), the Phillies last year finished 28th in offensive fWAR, 11th in starting pitching fWAR and 27th in relief pitching fWAR. This year, FanGraphs has the Phillies projected to finish 26th in offensive fWAR, 14th in starting pitching fWAR and 23rd in relief pitching fWAR. That’s very modest improvement in hitting and relief pitching, with a slight step back in starting pitching. Specifically, here are the projected statistics for the Phillies’ hitters and pitchers from the FanGraphs Depth Charts:

Lineup/Bench
Plate Appearances, AVG/OBP/SLG
595 PA, .270/.342/.362—2B Cesar Hernandez (1.5 fWAR)
478 PA, .273/.331/.390—LF Howie Kendrick (0.7 fWAR)
595 PA, .277/.340/.402—CF Odubel Herrera (2.5 fWAR)
616 PA, .271/.323/.467—3B Maikel Franco (2.4 fWAR)
555 PA, .245/.332/.435—RF Michael Saunders (1.4 fWAR)
595 PA, .261/.305/.482—1B Tommy Joseph (1.1 fWAR)
225 PA, .244/.282/.383—SS Freddy Galvis (0.3 fWAR)
384 PA, .233/.290/.394—C Cameron Rupp (1.0 fWAR)

205 PA, .228/.270/.370—C Jorge Alfaro (0.2 fWAR)
419 PA, .251/.308/.384—INF Andres Blanco (0.2 fWAR)
385 PA, .231/.302/.386—OF Aaron Altherr (0.4 fWAR)
350 PA, .247/.323/.355—SS J.P. Crawford (0.9 fWAR)
150 PA, .239/.300/.349—OF Roman Quinn (0.0 fWAR)

There’s a glaring lack of power in this lineup. Maikel Franco, Michael Saunders, and Tommy Joseph are the power sources and the team can’t expect much more than 75 home runs combined among the three. Even getting that many home runs requires Saunders to be healthy for a full season. The bottom of the lineup is a black hole of on-base percentage, with neither Freddy Galvis nor Cameron Rupp projected to have an on-base percentage higher than .300.

The prospects who could make some noise this year include shortstop J.P. Crawford, catcher Jorge Alfaro, and outfielder Roman Quinn. Crawford was rated in the top 10 among all prospects in baseball by FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law and MLB.com. Alfaro is more in the 30-40 range.

Starting Rotation
170 IP, 4.32 ERA, 4.30 FIP—RHP Jeremy Hellickson (2.3 fWAR)
162 IP, 3.64 ERA, 3.51 FIP—RHP Aaron Nola (3.3 fWAR)
156 IP, 3.88 ERA, 3.78 FIP—RHP Vince Velasquez (2.9 fWAR)
153 IP, 4.08 ERA, 4.14 FIP—RHP Jerad Eickhoff (2.3 fWAR)
103 IP, 4.25 ERA, 4.28 FIP—RHP Clay Buchholz (1.5 fWAR)

Like last year, the Phillies’ rotation looks to be the best part of their team. That being said, these guys are young for the most part and can’t be counted on for 200-plus innings. Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez project to be the team’s top pitchers, although a repeat of last year by Jeremy Hellickson would put him in the mix for staff ace. Eickhoff was much better in his eight-game stint in 2015 than he was in a full season last year. The big issue was in home runs allowed. He gave up 30 big flies in 33 starts. If he can get that under control, he can easily post an ERA under 4.00. Clay Buchholz is a question mark who is coming off an ugly year (4.78 ERA in 139 1/3 innings).

Bullpen
65 IP, 4.32 ERA, 4.27 FIP—RHP Jeanmar Gomez (0.2 fWAR)
65 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.68 FIP—RHP Hector Neris (0.8 fWAR)
55 IP, 3.38 ERA, 3.88 FIP—RHP Joaquin Benoit (0.6 fWAR)
55 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.84 FIP—RHP Pat Neshek (0.5 fWAR)
40 IP, 4.21 ERA, 4.32 FIP—LHP Joely Rodriguez (0.1 fWAR)

The FanGraphs Depth Charts project a slight improvement for the Phillies’ bullpen. Last year’s team leader in saves, Jeanmar Gomez, is the favorite to go into the season with the end-of-game role. It was a big surprise for him to rack up 37 saves last year and he did it in a non-traditional way for a modern closer. His strikeout rate ranked 122nd out of 130 relievers who pitched 50 or more innings and his walk rate was near the middle-of-the-pack. One thing he does somewhat well is get ground balls. Hector Neris is actually a more effective pitcher. If Gomez struggles, Neris could become The Guy.

Benoit and Neshek are veterans that the team hopes can stabilize the staff with their veteran-ness. Joely Rodriguez is one of a few potential left-handed relievers. He’s projected for the most innings of the lefty options. The team also recently acquired switch-pitcher Pat Venditte, who can throw left and right-handed. He has a career ERA near 5.00, but he’s fun to watch.

2017 Outlook

With a few weeks until the start of the season, a number of websites have projected standings available. Let’s see how the Phillies fare in the NL East:

FanGraphs Depth Charts

NL East
91-71 Washington Nationals
85-77 New York Mets
78-84 Miami Marlins
73-89 Atlanta Braves
72-90 Philadelphia Phillies*

NL Wild Card
87-75 San Francisco Giants
85-77 New York Mets
84-78 St. Louis Cardinals
82-80 Pittsburgh Pirates
78-84 Miami Marlins
78-84 Colorado Rockies
77-85 Arizona Diamondbacks
73-89 Atlanta Braves
72-90 Philadelphia Phillies*
70-92 Milwaukee Brewers
70-92 Cincinnati Reds
66-96 San Diego Padres

Baseball Prospectus

NL East
89-73 New York Mets
88-74 Washington Nationals
77-85 Miami Marlins
76-86 Atlanta Braves
73-89 Philadelphia Phillies*

NL Wild Card
88-74 Washington Nationals
88-74 San Francisco Giants
81-81 Pittsburgh Pirates
78-84 St. Louis Cardinals
78-84 Arizona Diamondbacks
77-85 Miami Marlins
77-85 Colorado Rockies
77-85 Milwaukee Brewers
76-86 Atlanta Braves
74-88 Cincinnati Reds
73-89 Philadelphia Phillies*
69-93 San Diego Padres

More from Call to the Pen

Clay Davenport

NL East
89-73 Washington Nationals
85-77 New York Mets
79-83 Miami Marlins
75-87 Atlanta Braves
71-91 Philadelphia Phillies*

NL Wild Card
86-76 San Francisco Giants
85-77 New York Mets
82-80 Pittsburgh Pirates
81-81 St. Louis Cardinals
79-83 Miami Marlins
77-85 Arizona Diamondbacks
75-87 Atlanta Braves
74-88 Colorado Rockies
74-88 Milwaukee Brewers
73-89 Cincinnati Reds
71-91 Philadelphia Phillies*
66-96 San Diego Padres

An optimistic Phillies fan can look at the projections with hopes for a third place finish in the NL East if the Phillies win a few more than projected and the Marlins lose a few more. The Braves are projected to be just a few games better, so fourth place is more attainable. A pessimist might notice that the Phillies are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league, with only the San Diego Padres projected to be worse by all three sources.

Next: Padres 2017 Team Preview

Either way, the playoffs don’t look like a possibility in 2017. The important thing is to develop the young players who are just reaching the big leagues, like Crawford, Alfaro, and Quinn, and hope for improvement from the young core that is already there (Herrera, Franco, Hernandez, and Joseph). The pitching staff should keep the team in games even if the offense struggles. This may not be a successful year as far as wins and losses are concerned, but progress should be made in other ways.

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