Pittsburgh Pirates 2017 Team Preview
Projected Lineup/Starting Rotation/Bullpen
Based on FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), the Pirates last year finished 17th in offensive fWAR, 24th in starting pitching fWAR and 25th in relief pitching fWAR. This year, FanGraphs has the Pirates projected to finish 12th in offensive fWAR, 10th in starting pitching fWAR and 20th in relief pitching fWAR.
Lineup/Bench
Plate Appearances, AVG/OBP/SLG
585 PA, .282/.318/.407—2B Josh Harrison (1.8 fWAR)
500 PA, .275/.351/.426—1B Josh Bell (1.2 fWAR)
630 PA, .280/.375/.474—RF Andrew McCutchen (3.6 fWAR)
560 PA, .285/.339/.442—CF Starling Marte (3.2 fWAR)
630 PA, .262/.328/.426—LF Gregory Polanco (2.4 fWAR)
510 PA, .256/.329/.395—3B David Freese (0.9 fWAR)
384 PA, .268/.359/.359—C Francisco Cervelli (1.8 fWAR)
490 PA, .259/.318/.380—SS Jordy Mercer (1.0 fWAR)
574 PA, .260/.338/.458—3B Jung Ho Kang (3.1 fWAR)
192 PA, .250/.318/.318—C Chris Stewart (0.3 fWAR)
280 PA, .264/.348/.408—1B John Jaso (0.7 fWAR)
161 PA, .248/.292/.381—INF Alen Hanson (0.2 fWAR)
140 PA, .271/.324/.353—INF/OF Adam Frazier (0.2 fWAR)
The biggest wild card for the Pirates offense is Jung Ho Kang. In 229 games over two seasons, he’s hit .273/.355/.483, with 36 home runs in 837 plate appearances. This year, it’s unknown when he will be ready to play for Pittsburgh after he was sentenced to a suspended eight-month prison sentence in South Korea because of a third DUI arrest. The Pirates placed him on their suspended list, which likely means he won’t be ready to start the season. FanGraphs is projecting 574 plate appearances for Kang. I’ll take the under on that projection.
If McCutchen returns close to the player he was before last year, the team will have a terrific outfield combination of Cutch, Marte and Polanco. Josh Bell is a good, young prospect who should provide good on-base percentage at first base. Francisco Cervelli is another good on-base guy, but with very little power. The team’s best minor league hitting prospect, Austin Meadows, could be knocking on the door at some point during this season.
Starting Rotation
185 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.42 FIP—RHP Gerrit Cole (3.7 fWAR)
174 IP, 3.64 ERA, 3.55 FIP—RHP Jameson Taillon (3.1 fWAR)
171 IP, 4.01 ERA, 3.86 FIP—RHP Ivan Nova (2.4 fWAR)
129 IP, 3.73 ERA, 3.79 FIP—RHP Tyler Glasnow (2.0 fWAR)
110 IP, 4.49 ERA, 4.41 FIP—RHP Chad Kuhl (0.9 fWAR)
75 IP, 4.30 ERA, 4.09 FIP—RHP Drew Hutchison (1.1 fWAR)
The Pirates starting rotation is projected to be much better than last year. A full, healthy season from Gerrit Cole will greatly help the cause, as will the development of young pitchers Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow. If Ivan Nova can pitch as well as he did last year for the PIrates, he would be a solid mid-rotation starter. The back end of the rotation will likely feature a mix of pitchers, with Chad Kuhl, Drew Hutchison and Steven Brault being the most likely competitors.
Bullpen
65 IP, 3.91 ERA, 3.89 FIP—LHP Tony Watson (0.8 fWAR)
65 IP, 3.35 ERA, 3.57 FIP—LHP Felipe Rivero (1.0 fWAR)
55 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.57 FIP—RHP Juan Nicasio (0.5 fWAR)
55 IP, 3.90 ERA, 3.72 FIP—RHP Daniel Hudson (0.5 fWAR)
45 IP, 3.95 ERA, 4.00 FIP—LHP Antonio Bastardo (0.2 fWAR)
The Pirates traded away closer Mark Melancon last season after he gave them 260 innings with a 1.80 ERA going back to the 2013 season. He was a lockdown closer, on a tier with the best in the business. In his place, Tony Watson will likely be the first option to close games this year after he finished last year with a career-best 15 saves. Lefty Felipe Rivero was the main player the Pirates received from the National in the Melancon trade. He has great stuff. He struck out 92 batters in 77 innings and is projected to be the team’s best reliever this year. Hudson will likely start the year as the right-handed eighth-inning guy, with Nicasio in the mix for a setup role as well.