Texas Rangers 2017 Team Preview: Additions, Subtractions, Outlook

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The Texas Rangers led the American League in wins last year, but are they in for a letdown in 2017? Let’s examine their offseason and how they’re set up for the new campaign.

Though they were unceremoniously bounced from the ALDS in three games by the Blue Jays, last year’s Texas Rangers enjoyed a very successful season by most measures. They led the American League with 95 wins (just edging the Indians and Red Sox), capturing their second straight AL West division title with a comfortable nine-game cushion over the Mariners.

The Rangers may have been quite fortunate to dominate the regular season in such fashion, however. They finished the campaign with a modest +8 run differential. Four of the five other division winners all sported a differential of at least +100. In fact, the Mariners and Astros – who placed second and third behind Texas in the AL West – also well outpaced the Rangers with margins of +61 and +23, respectively.

The club’s Pythagorean record (what their record “should” be based on run differential) was a rather startling 82-80, a substantial 13-win disparity from their actual season mark. That record would have landed them in third place in their division. While 95 wins suggests a powerhouse team, the Rangers scored and prevented runs like a squad barely over .500. So which team were they really, and what can we expect from them heading into 2017?

The Rangers’ biggest enemy this season might be natural regression.

While the Rangers’ biggest enemy this season might be natural regression, they also lost some key players from last year’s run during the offseason. General manager Jon Daniels attempted to address the vacancies, but how the new additions will stack up against their predecessors remains to be seen.

Texas put plenty of runs on the board in 2016, finishing seventh in MLB in that category with 765. Their main weakness was their pitching staff, which allowed the 10th-most runs in the league (757). If the Rangers’ hurlers can improve their performance as a unit this season, the team could stay afloat, even if the offense takes a step back.

To get a better idea of what’s in store for the Rangers in 2017, let’s take a look at the notable player arrivals and departures, and how it all adds up.

Next: Additions

Key Offseason Additions

Who says you can’t go home again (and again)? Yes, Mike Napoli is back for his third stint in Texas on a one-year deal with a club option. The 11-year veteran enjoyed a resurgent season with Cleveland last year, hitting 34 homers and driving in 101 runs, both career highs. While he struck out at a 30 percent clip, his power output more than made up for it. However, at 35 years old, it might be a bit too much to expect Napoli to duplicate those numbers in 2017.

He should still produce in a hitter-friendly environment like Globe Life Park (career .929 OPS with Texas), but there’s a reason teams weren’t exactly falling over themselves to sign Napoli this winter. He’ll be a positive presence in the Rangers clubhouse, though, replacing the leadership of a few departed players.

The Rangers signed James Loney to a minor league contract in January to bolster the ranks at first base, but he’ll likely be in for a fight to make the Opening Day roster. Napoli figures to split time between designated hitter and first base, with Ryan Rua also in the mix. Former top prospects Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar could get opportunities there, too. Once a fairly underrated bat, Loney managed an uninspiring .265/.307/.397 slash line in 100 games for the Mets last season.

Texas also took another minor league flyer on Josh Hamilton on the small chance that he could recapture some of his former glory. That’s looking even more unlikely after lingering discomfort in his left knee required him to undergo yet another surgery. If the former MVP makes an impact on a major league field again, it will be a legitimate surprise.

Tyson Ross could be the biggest x-factor of the bunch.

The Rangers made a series of low-risk speculative additions to their pitching staff, bringing in Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner on one-year deals and Dillon Gee on a minors contract. In the case of Ross and Cashner, the team will have to wait to really see what they can do. Ross is still recovering from thoracic outlet surgery, and Cashner is expected to also open the season on the DL with a shoulder injury.

Ross could be the biggest x-factor of the bunch for Texas. He missed virtually all of last year, but over the three previous seasons he posted a 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 2.63 K/BB ratio for the Padres. In 2014 and 2015 he made over 30 starts and came just a few innings shy of the 200 mark. If he can get back to that kind of production, he would fit in nicely alongside Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish in the rotation.

Cashner, meanwhile, has struggled outside San Diego, and Arlington might not be the best place for him to re-discover his mojo, despite being in his home state. He’s managed just a 4.72 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the past two seasons.

Next: Subtractions

Key Offseason Subtractions

The Rangers said goodbye to some prominent names in their lineup. After seven years in Texas, Mitch Moreland moved on to Boston. He’s not coming off the best season, slashing .233/.298/.422 in 147 games, but he did pop 22 home runs and has been a decent source of power in the past, cranking at least 20 round-trippers in three of the last four campaigns. He also provided strong defense at first base, and the Rangers will miss his glove over the current group vying for playing time there.

Ian Desmond was a pleasant surprise in Texas last year.

Ian Desmond was a pleasant surprise in Texas last year, changing positions and rebounding after a rough 2015. He slashed .285/.335/.446 with 22 home runs, 86 RBI and 21 stolen bases, earning the second All-Star nod of his career. A shortstop by trade, he didn’t embarrass himself in center field. Desmond raised some eyebrows when he inked a five-year deal with the Rockies, where he will once again try his hand at a new position – this time, first base. A broken hand will delay the start of his season, however.

Carlos Beltran may have only been with the Rangers for 52 games, but the 19-year veteran made an impact. He hit .280/.325/.451 over 206 plate appears, adding seven homers and 29 RBI. Texas traded for him from the Yankees at the deadline, eyeing his veteran leadership as a key component of a potentially deep postseason run. That run didn’t materialize, of course, and while the Rangers may have liked to keep the productive Beltran around even at age 40, he signed a deal with the Astros, staying in the division and returning to the club he played with in 2004.

The Rangers also lost a couple of longtime pitchers to free agency, but they’re unlikely to miss either. Derek Holland, now with the White Sox, has shown potential in the past, but injuries and ineffectiveness have hampered him over the last three seasons. He put up a mediocre 4.30 ERA during that span and crossed 100 innings last year for the first time since 2013.

Colby Lewis dealt with his own injury problems last year (strained right lat muscle) which limited him to 19 outings. He posted a respectable 3.71 ERA, but a 4.81 FIP told a different story. Due to turn 38 in August, teams have kept their distance and he remains unsigned.

Next: Outlook

2017 Season Outlook

All things said, the Texas Rangers are a tough team to pin down heading into the 2017 season. Their win total last year was largely misleading, and they could have easily been a middle-of-the-pack club. In terms of offseason player movement, it doesn’t really feel like they’ve made themselves better. As a result, they will need things to break right with the team they have in place.

They’ll depend on Mike Napoli to pick up a lot of the offensive slack, but he won’t be alone. Second baseman Rougned Odor unexpectedly clubbed 33 home runs last year; what will he do for an encore? At only 23 years old, he could still be trending upward. Texas should also benefit from having Jonathan Lucroy for an entire season. The catcher generated an .885 OPS with 11 homers and 31 RBI in just 47 games for the Rangers after last season’s trade.

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The team will look for more good things from Carlos Gomez, who signed a one-year deal to return to Texas. After disappointing in Houston, the outfielder impressed for the Rangers, producing a .905 OPS, eight home runs and 24 RBI in 33 contests. Getting the good Gomez as opposed to the bad one would be a nice boost for this club. Can Shin-Soo Choo be counted on for anything? Texas would welcome a healthy, productive year from the veteran on-base threat to further bolster the lineup.

Much will likely hinge on the younger players as well. Nomar Mazara slowed down in the second half of his 2016 rookie season, and he’ll try to put together a more consistent campaign this year. Jurickson Profar and Joey Gallo will both look to assert themselves at the big league level in 2017 and make good on past prospect rankings.

The one player the Rangers won’t have to worry about? Future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre, of course. Even in his late 30s, the third baseman is about as reliable as they come. He owns a .308/.358/.516 slash line since joining the Rangers while averaging 148 games played per season.

The one player the Rangers won’t have to worry about? Adrian Beltre, of course.

In the rotation, Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish – if healthy – form one of the best one-two punches in baseball. Playing for a new contract, Darvish should be extra motivated to turn in a great season. The Rangers will need someone else to step up and offer a solid third arm, though. Tyson Ross is an interesting thought, but at this point would you even bet on him pitching more than half the season? Likewise, it’s hard to see Andrew Cashner as more than a number-four or five guy.

Martin Perez, 26 next month, could perhaps fill the role if he takes that next step. Though his 4.39 ERA last year certainly wasn’t impressive, the lefty did log nearly 200 innings. If he can miss some more bats (4.7 K/9 in 2016), his numbers might improve to a more satisfactory level.

The bullpen will see Sam Dyson return as the closer, and you can’t complain much about the job he did last season. He converted 38 of 43 save opportunities to the tune of a 2.43 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The righty needs to remain sharp in the ninth inning, especially if the team is to continue winning close games. Jeremy Jeffress, acquired from the Brewers last year, will assume a setup role but has the ability to close if Dyson falters. He posted a 2.33 ERA over 58 frames combined between the two clubs. Hard-throwing Matt Bush could also see important innings.

Next: Pirates 2017 Team Preview

Reaching 95 wins again is a pipe dream, and honestly, even 90 seems like a stretch unless everything goes right. Fangraphs’ Depth Charts projects the Rangers to finish 83-79. A sizable fall, but somewhere around 85 wins might indeed be what they can realistically hope for. In any case, the Astros and Mariners have probably leapfrogged Texas after this offseason’s moves, and even the Angels could be worth keeping an eye on.

A year after posting the best record in the American League, earning a playoff spot looks like an uphill battle in 2017.

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