Top 10 MLB Catcher Prospects for the 2017 season
With the season just around the corner, who are the top 10 catcher prospects in MLB?
An Introduction
These lists will be coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our MLB contributors at Call to the Pen.
Ben reviewed each MLB organization’s top 10 prospects in November and December, then also reviewed the top 125 prospects in the game in January. Throughout spring training, he’s also been contributing scouting reports on players that are part of his top 25 prospects in the game.
Each slide will feature two players with a brief write up, then one final slide with a prospect who is not in the top 10, but very possibly could find his way into the top 5 with an impressive 2017 campaign due to the player’s high upside.
These rankings are based on dozens of conversations with multiple people around the game about different prospects, and certainly each list could be much longer, but for brevity, we’ll stick to 10!
Let’s get started with today’s position group, the men who wear “the tools of ignorance.”
Next: #9, #10
10. Chase Vallot, Kansas City Royals
Vallot received notice coming out of high school in 2014 because he had a big power bat, winning a home run derby at a Perfect Game showcase the summer before his draft season.
He also possessed a powerful arm behind the plate, and the Royals hoped that the combination of both would allow him to become a passable catcher with big time offensive skills.
Instead, the team has seen Vallot develop into one of the most highly-regarded defensive catchers in the game, exhibiting solid blocking skills, though his error rate was high in 2016.
The Royals know Salvador Perez won’t last forever, and being able to see a guy like Vallot hit for the power he has along with a solid walk rate (.367 OBP in 2016) with good defense would be a huge bonus to take over when it is time to replace Perez.
9. Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins
There were three things I heard from people who were present at the Arizona Fall League about catching – first, that the defense by most catchers in the AFL was rough, to say the least. Second, that the ones that did field didn’t seem to know how to swing a bat. Last, that Mitch Garver fit into neither of those two categories.
Garver has been underrated since the Twins took him with a ninth round selection in 2013, assumed to be a senior selection for cheap to help pay for the rest of their draft, the catcher out of New Mexico just went about displacing higher-regarded catchers along the way.
This offseason, the Twins allowed former third round selection in that same 2013 draft, Stuart Turner, to be available in the rule 5 draft while protecting Garver.
Garver’s got an excellent reputation as a framer, and he has a very strong arm as well, giving him an excellent skill base behind the plate. Add in his solid power bat when at the plate, and you can see why there are some in Minnesota that think Garver could supplant offseason signee Jason Castro as soon as the middle of 2017.
Next: #7, #8
8. Garrett Stubbs, Houston Astros
When his listed height of 5’10” makes you chuckle because you know it’s at least 2″ of exaggeration, it gives an idea of just the size Stubbs is behind the plate.
Yet, while small in stature, he’s certainly been no slack in his ability to offer significant defensive value and see his bat take steps forward at every level, finishing with a flurry in 2016 at AA, posting a .918 OPS in 137 plate appearances to close the season.
Stubbs gets excellent marks for his work ethic, handling of a pitching staff, and generally great demeanor in the clubhouse, but teams want more than just intangibles, so when he offered a .300+ bat and double digit home runs in 2016, that drew plenty of attention.
The position may be full at the major league level for now with Brian McCann and Evan Gattis, but Stubbs could push his way up once those guys are gone (McCann in 2018 if his 2019 option is not picked up, and Gattis currently in arbitration and eligible for free agency after 2018).
7. Tom Murphy, Colorado Rockies
Before a rough injury this spring, Murphy was in line to at least split the catching duties in Colorado this season if not have the lion’s share of the work behind the dish.
He should return in mid-April, but with the return coming from a fractured forearm, it’s no telling how quickly he’ll be at his best again and ready to play full strength.
When he’s healthy, Murphy offers legit power behind the plate, slugging .647 in AAA in 2016. Granted, that was in the PCL, but his power is legit.
Murphy is also not a zero with the glove, posting some of the best framing metrics in the upper minors in 2016.
He may not be the most sure receiver behind the plate, and you’d like to see him take a walk now and again, but Murphy has a very solid base that could be impacting Colorado by May for certain.
Next: #6, #5
6. Jose Trevino, Texas Rangers
The Texas native was drafted by his home state club out of college in Oral Roberts in the sixth round. However, as happens frequently at the catcher position, the guy looked at as a cheaper sign for organizational “filler” turned out to be a guy who is getting a lot of high grades right now.
Trevino has always shown the offensive skills that would make him stand out behind the plate with a minor league career line of .276/.316/.431 since being drafted in 2014. Last season, he smacked 30 doubles to go with his 9 home runs.
The thing most have appreciated about Trevino offensively is that while he’s not going to draw a ton of walks, he’s generally controlled the strike zone, striking out just 49 times in 433 at bats last season.
Behind the plate, Trevino is known for his excellent blocking skills and his big arm, though I’ve received comments that he’s also a tremendous framer.
Trevino will be in AA to start 2017, and if he shows well, it’s certainly likely that he could be the guy to take over for the big league club when Jonathan Lucroy becomes a free agent after the 2017 season.
5. Chance Sisco, Baltimore Orioles
Sisco’s smooth left-handed swing has often had folks invoking names like Joe Mauer when talking about his future as far as being a catcher with the type of swing that could win a batting title.
However, Mauer was an elite defensive catcher until injuries hurt that, but Sisco has never really had that reputation. Sisco has measured below replacement in every metric measured by Baseball Prospectus’ catching metrics at every level he’s been at (not every level records all data).
There are reports that his defense made strides last season to passable, and certainly if there is an organization that would play him in spite of poor defense, he’s in it, as evidenced by their signing of Welington Castillo this offseason.
Sisco has been a fairly universal top 100 prospect this offseason, and I do think he’s the type of guy who will have value moving off of the position with his bat, but he’s obviously much more valuable if he can just be passable on defense.
He’ll open 2017 in AAA with an eye to likely taking over in Baltimore should Castillo miss any significant time.
Next: #4, #3
4. Zack Collins, Chicago White Sox
The top-rated college catcher in a fairly deep crop of college catching in the 2016 draft, Collins was much more noted for his stick than his glove.
In fact, many thought he would take the route that the Angels took with former Virginia catcher Matt Thaiss in moving him immediately to first base, but instead the White Sox chose to put Collins behind the plate and let him work.
Collins has a fairly large frame for a catcher at 6’3″ and 220 pounds, but he did receive solid marks for his blocking and his handling of pitching staff once he got to high-A.
He’ll likely open in AA, and with little in front of him in the Chicago White Sox organization, it’s entirely feasible that he could catch games in Chicago at the end of 2017.
Whether he’ll still be behind the plate in 2019 or 2020 is the question on everyone’s mind, however, and while the bat should play just fine with some solid power and an excellent eye, his glove work still has a long way to go.
3. Jorge Alfaro, Philadelphia Phillies
It seems like Alfaro has been around forever, having been the focus of discussions on the old Up and In podcast at Baseball Prospectus with Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks. Goldstein has been with the Astros for a number of seasons and Parks has been with the Cubs for a few years now as well.
Alfaro is still working his way to the major leagues, and his raw tools are still as sexy and loud as they were in the days when Kevin and Jason were talking about him.
There are few catchers (majors or minors) who possess either Alfaro’s raw arm strength or his raw power, but nearly every catcher possesses much better plate discipline than Alfaro, and that’s really been the holdup in his advancement at the plate.
Behind the plate, a big part of the issue is simply consistency. One game, Alfaro is on top of every pitch, making every throw, working for every pitch for his guy on the mound. Then the next game, seemingly, he’s going through the motions back there.
That dichotomy was frustrating enough for the Rangers that they moved on from Alfaro, making him part of the package to land Cole Hamels. Now with Philadelphia, he will be behind Cameron Rupp, who knocked out 16 home runs and played solid defense at the major league level in 2016.
Alfaro will need to make improvements in his plate discipline (he struck out five times for every walk in 2016 in the minors and eight times in the majors) and consistency, but he’s shown the ability at the high minors at this point, which leads to think the next step is conquering the major leagues.
Next: #2, #1
2. Carson Kelly, St. Louis Cardinals
A third baseman by trade when he was drafted in 2012 out of high school, the Cardinals let him work at the hot corner for his first two seasons and then went about the task of converting Kelly to a backstop.
The transition really could not have gone much better. There are many around the game who would rate Kelly’s defense as the best of any legit catching prospect in the entire minor leagues.
While he was drafted for his power potential in his bat, Kelly has developed into more of a bat control hitter with impressive ability to work a count and slap a hit.
His power did begin to show some in 2016, however, as he hit six home runs and 17 doubles in 96 combined games in the minor leagues before a late season call up to the majors.
What really impressed most scouts was the way Kelly played in the Arizona Fall League. He hit .286/.387/.455 with an astounding 13/4 BB/K ratio, but he also smacked 4 doubles and 3 home runs in just 94 plate appearances.
St. Louis does have some guy named Yadier Molina behind the plate currently, and based on his performance in the World Baseball Classic, there’s still plenty in that tank, so it could be that the Cardinals use Kelly as a significant piece in a trade, but he could be a very seamless transition from Molina to the next generation of elite Cardinal catcher if the team chose to hold on to him.
1. Francisco Mejia, Cleveland Indians
Before his big 50-game hit streak this summer, many casual prospect fans had little idea of who Mejia was. He was a guy who had never played above low-A ball, and the Indians started him there to repeat the level in 2016.
After hitting .243/.324/.345 in 2015 at low-A, Mejia only slashed .347/.384/.531 at the same level before being promoted to high-A, where he really didn’t stop hitting all season.
The final tally on his year was a .342/.382/.514 slash line with 29 doubles and 11 home runs in just 102 games.
As impressive as those offensive numbers were, Mejia has always been known for his elite defensive skills, and he took big strides forward in that regard as well.
By the time I started working on my top 125 list, there was really little thought as to who the top catcher in the minors was – the question was who to put #2 behind Mejia.
He’ll likely open at AA in 2017, and at just 21 all season, Mejia will be an early bloomer for a catcher, a rare thing indeed. He could see Cleveland as soon as 2018 for significant playing time.
Next: One to Watch
Keibert Ruiz, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ruiz was an excellent scouting find by the Dodgers, signing him for just $140,000 in the summer of 2014 out of Venezuela.
Ruiz was able to open with the Dodgers’ Dominican Summer League team in 2015, and he hit well, slashing .300/.340/.387, but nothing like he did with two stateside rookie levels in 2016.
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Ruiz showed excellent bat control, hitting .374/.412/.427 with 22 doubles and two home runs while also posting a very respectable 6.12 percent walk rate and 11.02 percent strikeout rate.
While Ogden is an offensive environment to some sorts, that was well beyond even environment-aided expectations would have been for Ruiz’s bat as his carrying tool was always supposed to be his excellent work behind the plate.
While Ruiz has an arm that is graded anywhere from average to just a tick below plus, everything else he does behind the plate is considered elite, and he even gets himself into solid position to back pick runners and keep them honest, helping control the run game in that way.
I would not be surprised in the least if the Dodgers open him in full season ball next year, which is impressive as he’s just 18 years old. If he continues to progress the way he did in 2016, this is a guy who will shoot up the ranks in 2017.
Next: Brendan Rodgers Scouting Report
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