Feb 23, 2017; Goodyear, AZ, USA; Cincinnati Reds left fielder Adam Duvall (23) squirms around a tag attempt from catcher Stuart Turner (74) on a bunt during workouts at the Cincinnati Reds Player Development Complex. Mandatory credit: Sam Green/Cincinnati Enquirer via USA TODAY NETWORK
Sam Green/Cincinnati Enquirer via USA TODAY NETWORK /
The Cincinnati Reds “earned” the second pick in the 2017 draft with their 2016 season. Is there hope for fans in 2017?
The Cincinnati Reds definitely played like a team that was worthy of the second-worst record league in 2016, with a pitching staff that was historically bad and nowhere near enough offense to make up for it!
While the Reds were not the Cincinnati Reds “Big Red Machine” of the 1970s, they had enjoyed a period of success, having won two division titles and made the playoffs three times since 2010 before the 2014 Reds team seemed to fall apart at the seems and a rebuild happened.
After 98 losses in 2015 and 94 in 2016, Reds fans are very much ready to see some winning sometime soon.
Will 2017 start that positive trajectory? We’ll take a look over the next few pages:
We’ll take a look at the team’s 2016-2017 offseason moves, both the key losses and key additions.
Then we’ll take a look at the team’s lineup and bench, followed by the rotation and bullpen.
We’ll follow that up with a run through of the people in charge of the team in the management, coaching and front office roles.
Finally, you’ll get a prediction of what we at Call to the Pen see as the Reds’ 2017 chances.
Let’s kick it off with the offseason moves…
Next: Offseason Movement
Key Offseason Additions
Two of the biggest moves of the offseason were nearly opposite in their impact on fans of the team.
On February 12th, roughly 10 days before spring training opened, the Reds traded long-time second baseman Brandon Phillips to Atlanta for lefty reliever Andrew McKirahan and righty reliever Carlos Portuondo.
Phillips was a guy who provided flash and good effort for the team on the field every day and was good with the fans, but his on field performance did not match his salary any longer, and the team wanted to see what they had in multiple infield options, so moving Phillips was a priority of the offseason, one that took eating a lot of cash to pull off.
The other trade may not have struck at Cincinnati Reds fans’ hearts as hard, but probably involved the better player leaving the Reds as Dan Straily was traded to the Miami Marlins for three players, including strong-armed prospect Luis Castillo.
Very probably the biggest free agent signing of the offseason ended up being starter Scott Feldman. While he was signed to be depth in the rotation, injuries to other starters have led to Feldman being named the opening day starter for the Reds.
The Reds opened the 2017 calendar year by signing reliever Drew Storen to a contract on January 3rd. Storen, the former Nationals closer, had fallen on hard times in his performance in 2015-2016, but he could be a big asset if he can bounce back to his previous form.
In one of the first moves of the offseason, Arismendy Alcantara was claimed from the Oakland Athletics. He’s a former top prospect when he was with the Cubs organization, and he could provide a solid bench infielder.
Obviously not all of those guys will make the team, but Cincinnati is definitely being wise to give opportunities to all who could give value to the big-league club.
Key Offseason Losses
Straily and Phillips have been mentioned, and they’re definitely the biggest impact players that had been lost.
The Reds lost a few free agents that they didn’t seem to make much effort to pursue, like J.J. Hoover, Alfredo Simon, among many others.
The Reds did sell John Lamb to the Tampa Bay Rays. Lamb was part of the return for Johnny Cueto when he was traded to Kansas City in midseason, and while the Reds have been very pleased with the return of Brandon Finnegan and still have hope for Cody Reed, they were not pleased with Lamb in 2016. Lamb didn’t end up sticking with the Rays, either, being released roughly two weeks later before signing with the Angels.
Two interesting losses in the offseason were Tyrell Jenkins and Richie Shaffer. Both players were claimed from other teams when those teams tried to designate the players off of their 40-man rosters.
Hoping they could sneak one by, the Reds attempted to do the same thing, and both were claimed by other teams, landing Jenkins in San Diego and Schaffer in Cleveland.
The Reds also lost pinch hitter and backup outfielder Steve Selsky on waivers to the Red Sox.
Let’s take a look at the position players of note for 2017…
Next: Lineup/Bench
Everyday Lineup
When he’s healthy, Devin Mesoraco is the catcher. The issue is that happens about as frequently as Cincinnati-born Nick Lachey puts out a quality album.
Thankfully, the Reds have always had a solid backup, the current one being switch-hitter Tucker Barnhart, who is graded as one of the better defenders in the league.
The best hitter in the Cincinnati Reds lineup is Joey Votto. Votto had an incredible second half of the 2016 season. He finished with a line of .326/.434/.550 with 29 home runs.
Taking over at second base for Brandon Phillips, at least to start the season, will be Jose Peraza. Peraza had a BABIP-fueled impressive season last year, hitting .324 with 21 stolen bases. He definitely has speed to burn, though.
Eugenio Suarez hit 21 home runs and stole 11 bases, but he posted just a .317 OBP and struck out 155 times, so the Reds are likely hoping he can show a bit more in 2017.
Zack Cozart had 500+ plate appearances in 2016, after managing just 214 in 2015. His presence in the lineup is absolutely key, though he could be a very useful trade piece midseason if he can be healthy and productive early in the year.
The biggest surprise of the 2016 season was the production of outfielder Adam Duvall. Offensively and defensively, he was a revelation, playing near Gold Glove-caliber defense while hitting 33 home runs and 31 doubles on the season.
Billy Hamilton dealt with nagging injuries throughout the season, yet he was still able to blaze 58 stolen bases with just 8 caught stealing on the season. He and Peraza on the base paths together could be an absolute nightmare for opposing pitchers, as long as they can get on first base.
A host of guys filled in once Jay Bruce was traded midseason, but the guy who showed best was Scott Schebler, and he’ll likely open 2017 with the last outfield job. Schebler is a grinder type without huge tools, but he does all the little things right on the field and will hold the outfield until someone else shows they’re ready for it.
During the season, you could see Cozart and/or Suarez moved as part of trades. Suarez’s trade would likely open a spot for Nick Senzel, the #2 overall pick in the 2016 draft.
If Cozart is moved, Peraza could slide over to short and allow Dilson Herrera, acquired for Jay Bruce, to play second base. Herrera is an elite defender with passable offensive skills that should allow him to be a contributor for a long time up the middle.
The outfield has one spot in flux, seemingly just waiting for Jesse Winker to decide he’s ready to step forward and claim it. Winker’s an average defender, but he’s got an incredible contact ability and the frame that would suggest significant power. If he could put that together, he could be a huge offensive asset for the Reds.
Bench
Arismendy Alcantara was once a top prospect with the Cubs, and he’s currently out of options, which has led to him being a front runner for a bench spot.
Stuart Turner is the other guy seemingly fixed into a spot as he’s the Reds’ Rule 5 selection and must be kept on the roster or returned to the Minnesota Twins.
Outside of that, a couple of non-roster invitees could end up grabbing bench spots this spring as Desmond Jennings and Ryan Raburn have shown well over the spring. Their best competition is a fellow non-roster guy that was with the Reds last season, Hernan Iribarren.
Outside of the aforementioned Winker, Senzel and Herrera, there’s not much on the farm that will likely impact the everyday lineup in 2017. I personally like outfielder Aristides Aquino, but it’d be a surprise if he jumps over Winker and Phillip Ervin in the outfield pecking order.
Now, let’s turn to the pitching…
Next: Rotation/Bullpen
Starting Rotation
Due to injuries to Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani that will cause them to miss the opening of the season, the opening day rotation could include three pitchers still eligible for the Reds’ top prospect list, so that gives an idea how young the pitching could end up being.
Scott Feldman is a well-traveled vet that was signed over the offseason, and he’s been named the opening day starter. He also has nearly a decade on every other member of the rotation as he is 34 and no other member of the rotation will even be 25 when the season opens.
Brandon Finnegan had a very solid first season in the rotation for the Reds. He came up with the Royals in their bullpen, and the Reds handled him well in transitioning him back into the rotation. Many scouts look to Finnegan as a guy who could really break out in 2017.
The final three spots in the rotation are currently penciled in to Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed and Amir Garrett. Garrett is the Reds best pitching prospect right now, and there are a few who think he’s the best prospect overall. He’s a former college basketball player that got a late start on baseball as he played college basketball as well as baseball, but he’s really impressed in the last few years.
Stephenson and Reed both had big-time struggles in 2016, but both have high pedigrees and could be expected to provide better showings in 2017.
The intriguing name in camp has been former Red Bronson Arroyo, who is in camp as a non-roster invitee at 40 years old. Arroyo has been discussed as an option as the 5th starter and could be an intriguing option.
One pitcher that was also in camp to open spring that could be intriguing is Vladimir Gutierrez, the pitcher the Reds signed from Cuba in 2016. He has a very mature profile on the mound, and he could end up shooting through the system quickly.
Other names that are making solid bids for the Cincinnati Reds opening day rotation include Rookie Davis, Sal Romano and Tyler Mahle, all making good impressions as prospects fighting for a rotation job.
Bullpen
With a young staff, the bullpen is going to be taxed with throwing more innings, so the Reds have discussed being flexible with their bullpen roles on guys, allowing them to throw multiple innings in appearances.
That should work well with guys like Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen and Tony Cingrani in the bullpen as all three came into the major leagues and had some level of success as a starter.
Storen has the pedigree of a former elite closer, though it’s been hinted that Iglesias will be the guy getting the most save opportunities. Blake Wood is one of the few guys who had a successful season out of the pen in Cincinnati in 2016, so he should fit back into a more traditional one-inning role with success.
Currently, the other roles in the bullpen are a bit of a fight among righty Barrett Astin, lefty Wandy Peralta, righty Tim Adleman, righty Louis Coleman, righty Austin Brice and lefty Lucas Luetge. Most likely three from that group will have a big league job.
Now onto the guys calling the shots…
Next: Manager/Coaching Staff/Front Office
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Manager
Bryan Price spent his third year at the helm of the Reds in 2016. He was signed to a one-year contract with an option for 2018.
Price has only posted a 208-278 record in his three years with the Reds, and many thought the one-year deal was a sign of that, giving the Reds the opportunity to pursue another manager if there is not improvement in 2017.
Price has had run-ins with the Cincinnati media, and there is some curiosity if the extension for 2017 was even a good idea, so his seat is certainly warm as he enters the season.
Coaching Staff
The Reds have some experience in the coaching staff in former manager Jim Riggleman as bench coach and long-time coach and former major leaguer Billy Hatcher as third base coach.
The Reds are most notable for their approach of really working with two coaches for both pitching and hitting, something many teams have just a single coach in charge of.
Don Long is the head hitting coach, and he’s entering his fourth season in the organization. His assistant is Tony Jaramillo who worked in the minor league system for eight years before getting his current job before the 2016 season.
Mack Jenkins is the head pitching coach, and this will be his first full season in that role. He worked as Price’s assistant pitching coach when Price was the head guy for three years, and he’s been part of the Reds organization in some capacity for 31 years now.
Reds fans will remember Ted Power as a former reliever with their team for five seasons in the 80s and early 90s, but he’s currently working in his first full season as the assistant pitching coach after being promoted to the position mid-season in 2016.
Front Office
The Cincinnati Reds gained some attention when they hired Dick Williams to be general manager in 2015 after former GM Walt Jocketty moved up to the role of President of Baseball Operations.
The attention was first for comical reasons as many recalled the former major league manager of the same name who had plenty of fire and fervor with the media of his own during his managerial career, harking back to the Price incident.
Instead, the coverage then began to be mixed as it was revealed that this Dick Williams was in fact a Cincinnati native in his mid-40s who was related to two of the minority owners of the club. Reds fans smelled something bad about nepotism within the organization.
Whether that is true or not, Williams has acquitted himself well in a rebuild, with his first draft in 2016 producing some tremendous players, his scouting staff finding an undrafted free agent that was draft eligible (and would have been around a 2nd/3rd round pick if teams had known) and signing him in T.J. Freidl, and then making some very slick moves in trading guys like Dan Straily for multiple young pieces to help in the rebuild.
Next: Prediction
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2017 Prediction
Now comes the fun part…
Baseball Prospectus’ Pecota projection system foresees the Reds finishing last in the NL Central with a 74-88 record, which would put them tied for the fourth-worst record in the league.
Fangraphs’ Steamer projection system sees the Reds finishing with the third-worst record in the league at 70-92.
The most recent Westgate odds from Las Vegas have the Reds tied for the fourth-worst shot to win the World Series at 100-1.
Needless to say, it’d be a surprise to see a 90-win projection here, to say the least.
I know Reds fans would like me to be the guy to break that, but it’s just not there. I do see some excitement this season, however. The Cincinnati Reds won’t be running out expensive veterans mixed with quad-A players to rack up 90 losses in 2017.
The team should be exciting and there should be plenty of opportunity to see the young players that will make up the core of the next great Reds team.
My prediction will be 5th place in the NL Central again, but I do think that the team could improve, even if the standings place remains the same.
The projection here is for 73 wins, avoiding 90 losses by ever-so-slim a margin, and seeing some significant steps forward from at least two of their young starting pitchers along with an emergence of a dominant reliever to lead the bullpen.
On the offensive side, I honestly think moving Cozart for more young talent and bringing up Jesse Winker to be the high on-base table setter, even if he isn’t a blazing fast runner would make the Reds lineup dynamic. Peraza and Hamilton could hit second or eighth, Dilson Herrera would be on the team to bring elite defense and hit seventh in front of the elite runner in the eight-hole.
While the wins and losses may not be heavily in the Reds’ favor in 2017, the team should be much more palatable to watch!
While it’s fitting that one of the most memorable moments of the Cincinnati Reds in 2016 brings you to tears, this will bring you to tears for the right reasons:
