MLB Top Ten Right-Handed Pitching Prospects For 2017

10. Brent Honeywell, Tampa Bay Rays

Honeywell has been known for one pitch during his career as he’s one of the few guys in all of baseball that throws a screwball, but Honeywell is a legit pitcher outside of just a unique pitch.

He has taken significant steps forward each season since being drafted in the 2nd round out of community college in Tennessee. He was just 19 when he was drafted but made a very good impression, throwing 33 2/3 innings with just a 1.07 ERA and 40 strikeouts to just 6 walks.

He continued his excellent control and pitching between low-A in the Midwest League and high-A in the Florida State League in 2015, throwing for a combined 3.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 5.14% walk rate, and 24.57% strikeout rate.

Honeywell really took another step in his dominance, making 20 starts between high-A and AA, throwing 115 1/3 innings with a 2.34 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 5.52% walk rate, and 25.83% strikeout rate.

Honeywell sits in the mid-90s with his sinking fastball with a pair of plus off speed offerings in his screwball and change up. He also has a cutter that is fringe-plus as he’s worked to learn the pitch.

Honeywell operates with five separate pitches, but he also knows how to alter his grip to get different movement on those pitches, giving him multiple looks.

9. Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

A “cold weather” pitcher from the plains of Iowa, Keller was a guy who had plenty of raw stuff but needed development when he came to the Pirates as a 2nd round draft selection in 2014.

He walked over 11% and over 15% in his first two professional seasons, with his 2015 year marred by a forearm strain that the Pirates handled very carefully.

This season, Keller took that big step forward, showing legit plus control, and even flashing plus-plus control. He dominated in the low-A South Atlantic League before making a run in the high-A Florida State League playoffs with Bradenton.

In 2016, Keller combined for 24 regular season starts, throwing 130 1/3 innings, posting a 2.49 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.72% walk rate, and 27.01% strikeout rate.

Keller’s fastball has impressive sink and movement, sitting in the low- to mid-90s with the ability to reach the upper-90s with the pitch. His change is also much improved, and the combination caused a ton of balls into the dirt this year.

Keller is still physically filling out, and with just one full season under his belt, needs to show his ability to handle the wear and tear going forward, but he has certainly jumped forward among the pitching prospects in all of the game.

Next: #7, #8

8. Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox

A year from now, this ranking could look significantly low, or it could look tremendously high. Kopech is on that precipice of either breaking out as an elite pitching prospect or solidifying his future role as a reliever.

His 2016 did not start off as you’d like, as Kopech broke his pitching hand in a fight with a teammate. This after he had missed 50 games in 2015 due to testing positive to a banned stimulant began to really raise questions about Kopech’s future in the game.

This all seemed to focus Kopech even further in his pursuit of dominance, however, as he returned with a fervor, ripping off an incredible 82 strikeouts in just 52 innings at high-A Salem before heading to the Arizona Fall League and being one of the top conversation pieces of scouts in that league.

Kopech is known for his true 80-grade fastball. Last season, one of his Salem teammates charted a 105 MPH fastball from Kopech during a start. While there are questions about the legitimacy of that pitch, that a teammate that sees him every single day saw that number and didn’t think, “Gee, the radar gun may be off on that pitch” just tells you how incredible his routine velocity is, as he sits bumping 100, routinely topping the century mark, even late into starts.

His slider has elite velocity, but right now he struggles to control the pitch, which takes away from the true potential of the pitch. He even flashed an above-average change at times with more movement effect than velocity/arm action effect on his change.

Kopech was a key piece in the Chris Sale deal this offseason with the White Sox and Red Sox, and he’s drawn rave reviews this spring for his coachability and how hard he’s worked to pick up things he’s taught in spring training.

If he can harness his incredible velocity and arsenal, he could be one of the top overall prospects in all of the game by the end of the season, let alone top pitching prospects.

7. Francis Martes, Houston Astros

Martes is definitely a current jewel of the Astros scouting department, having pried him away from the Marlins in their trade of Jarred Cosart in 2014. Raw at the time, the Astros have polished his tremendous four-pitch mix into an elite pitching prospect.

As a 20 year old for the entire 2016 season, Martes pitched the entire year at AA, throwing 125 1/3 innings with a 3.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.97% walk rate, and 25% strikeout rate.

Martes has an elite fastball that sits mid-90s and can touch upper-90s, though it doesn’t feature a ton of movement. Martes has worked to improve his control, showing good ability to spot the fastball throughout the zone to allow it play up.

He also works with a legit plus-plus curve, what is termed a “spike” curve, thrown with impressive velocity and late break. His curve and slider can tend to blend together a bit, though the slider has even more velocity than the curve and less depth to the break.

With continued work on his change, Martes has put himself in position to be on the doorstep of the major leagues, likely opening in AAA in 2017. His floor is a very talented power reliever.

Next: #6, #5

6. Anderson Espinoza, San Diego Padres

Espinoza was originally signed by the Red Sox out of Venezuela for a bonus that broke records for a Venezuelan prospect. He quickly showed that he was more than worthy of that big time bonus.

In his first professional season at just age 17, Espinoza worked all the way to low-A, throwing 58 1/3 innings with a 1.23 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, a 6.01% walk rate, and a 27.9% strikeout rate.

This season, the Red Sox challenged him with an assignment to low-A in the South Atlantic League. He showed excellent peripherals but got bit by the BABIP bug, giving up a .350+ BABIP on the entirety of his 2016 season.

Mid-season, the Red Sox utilized Espinoza as the piece to acquire lefty Drew Pomeranz for their rotation. Espinoza moved to low-A with the Padres in the Midwest League and had similar results there with solid peripherals but a BABIP-inflated ERA.

His 2016 final line was 108 1/3 innings, a 4.49 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7.54% walk rate, and 21.55% strikeout rate.

Espinoza’s raw stuff may be the most elite that I witnessed all season with a fastball that sits mid-90s and tops triple digits with an easy, effortless motion.

His change could arguably be graded his best pitch, getting excellent sink and tremendous arm deception on the pitch. He also has a curve that sits plus and when it flashes is a plus to plus-plus offering.

When he puts it all together, Espinoza offers three double-plus offerings along with legit plus command/control, which is incredible to consider, as he’s only 19 this season.

Espinoza will face the challenge of the California League this season, and if he can conquer that, he could rocket up this list.

5. Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates

Arguably the most physically intimidating pitcher on the mound on this list, Glasnow stands 6’8″ tall with velocity that reaches the triple digits.

With his height, he gets tremendous plane on his fastball, though he doesn’t get tremendous movement on the pitch generally. Glasnow has a legit plus curve as well that can generate swing and miss and weak contact.

Glasnow has good mechanics that aren’t quirky or funky, but like most guys at his height, just a hair off in timing can really hurt in the entire process, and it’s evident in Glasnow tremendously.

Glasnow had an elite season in the minor leagues in 2016 between AA and AAA, posting a 1.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 116 2/3 innings with a 14.62% walk rate and 30.97% strikeout rate.

The strikeouts are legit and carried over to his major league debut in 2016, but so did the walks, and a pitcher simply cannot be successful with a walk rate at that level as a starting pitcher in the major leagues (his MLB rate was 12.38%).

Glasnow has shown well in his competition for the Pittsburgh rotation this spring, though the Pirates may choose to limit his exposure by putting him back in AAA to work on his command/control at that level rather than in the major leagues.

Next: #4, #3

4. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox

Considered a viable #1 overall selection in the 2012 draft before he had an elbow injury his senior year of high school that was going to require Tommy John surgery.

The impending surgery caused him to fall to the Nationals at #16, and the team and Giolito have worked well through a TJS recovery procedure that they seem to have mastered before he returned to the mound and began really dominating.

As he got closer to the majors, the Nationals tinkered more and more with Giolito’s mechanics, and finally in 2016, it became too much as he simply lost effectiveness.

Giolito’s raw stuff was still there, but mechanically, he was just so off that he really got teed up at the big league level, giving up 7 home runs in just 21 1/3 innings whereas in the minor leagues before 2016, he had allowed a total of 11 home runs in 253 2/3 innings.

When the Nationals began dangling him as a piece in trade talks this offseason as they pursued an outfielder or a closer, I thought there were three teams that I would really like to see Giolito land – Pittsburgh, Cleveland, or the White Sox.

Giolito has already received rave reviews from coaches and GM Rick Hahn for his work in spring and though he’ll open in AAA, he should not be there long before he makes a splash in the big leagues and establishes himself.

3. Reynaldo Lopez, Chicago White Sox

While I am going against consensus here for sure, Lopez is definitely the guy that I think the Sox stole from the Nationals even more so than Giolito.

Lopez was a light-priced signing at just $17,000 when he was already 18, so later than most Latin players. A small frame guy, he was a pure lottery ticket, and after a year of struggles to get onto the mound due to injury issues, Lopez broke out in 2014, when he posted a 1.08 ERA in 83 1/3 innings across short-season A-ball and low-A with a 0.82 WHIP.

Lopez had a solid season in high-A in 2015, but nothing tremendous, which caused a number of prospect folks to back off of him, though his stuff had actually improved tremendously as he stretched out further as a starter.

Lopez has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and can top triple digits with surprising plane from a high arm angle in spite of his 6′ height. He tended to work too much high in the zone with the pitch in the majors, which is not where his pitch is most effective.

His best secondary pitch is a sharp-breaking curve that has excellent velocity and late break for good depth. His change flashed plus, and has some excellent late cut movement when he’s on with the pitch, something he’s added in the last season.

Lopez seemed to struggle to convince the Nationals of where his pitches were most effective as the locations that were incredibly effective in the minor leagues were nowhere near where his pitches were called in the major leagues.

With the White Sox, pitching coach Don Cooper will have a chance to maximize the righty’s electric repertoire in the rotation, and GM Rick Hahn has stated that Lopez will likely be the first starter called up from AAA this season if one is needed.

Next: #2, #1

2. Yadier Alvarez, Los Angeles Dodgers

A lot of heads turned and shook when the Dodgers signed Alvarez to a $16M bonus in July of 2015. Figuring it was simply the Dodgers throwing around money just to spend money, Alvarez was seen as a guy with some stuff but huge questions that would require tremendous time to work out in the minor leagues.

Instead, Alvarez was incredibly polished on the mound, showing a mound maturity that belied his lack of experience that many teams used as a reason to bow out of bidding for Alvarez.

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The crazy thing is that after putting up a 2.12 ERA over 59 1/3 innings with a 1.03 WHIP, 8.75% walk rate, and 33.75% strikeout rate in 2016, Alvarez has worked to actually deepen his arsenal.

Primarily a fastball/slider guy when he signed with a spotty change, Alvarez now has multiple looks to that change based on how he grips the ball, and he has added a curve as well.

Alvarez sits his fastball in the mid-90s, topping it out in triple digits. His slider sits in the mid-80s and was clocked over 90 on the season, one of the highest velocity sliders in the minors with excellent break as well.

Alvarez pitched with the Arizona Rookie League and low-A Midwest League in 2016 as he put in only the amount of innings that the Dodgers allowed, being careful to protect his arm.

Alvarez will likely open with high-A in the California League in 2017, and he will continue to build up innings, but with the polish he showed and incredible stuff, he could be in the Dodgers rotation sooner rather than later.

1. Alex Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals

Yes, he’s going to be out all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery and likely going to miss some of 2018 as he completes rehab as well.

However, if he’s fully healthy, Reyes is a legit top 5 prospect in the entire game, and he’s certainly the best pitching prospect in the whole game. It’s hard to move him down from this spot unless there is an evidence that he will come back as less of a pitcher from TJS (not assuming full return is guaranteed by any means, either, obviously).

Reyes had a rocky 2016 season where he missed 50 games for a marijuana suspension, then struck out 93 hitters in 65 1/3 AAA innings before coming up to the big leagues and simply putting up a 1.57 ERA over 46 big league innings to finish the season with 52 strikeouts.

Reyes when he’s healthy has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and tops triple digits, even late into his starts. His power curve is an elite “out” pitch, able to generate swing and miss or weak contact.

Reyes’ change made huge strides in 2016, as he actually added velocity to the pitch, using the pitch as more of a movement pitch than a velocity offset, and it became incredibly effective, especially in his major league team.

We won’t get to see Reyes in 2017, but hopefully he can return to the mound in 2018 early on in the season, and his elite stuff can return to form as he is an electric pitcher to watch on the mound.

Next: One To Watch

Riley Pint, Colorado Rockies

Those who read Jeff Passan’s book “The Arm” (highly suggested read) already know some of Pint’s background as he is a high level athlete in high school that was able to pop out 102 MPH fastballs, leading to him being the #4 selection in the 2016 draft.

Pint has more than just pure velocity, however. He offers a four-pitch mix that flashes all four as above-average pitches to even plus-level when he’s on.

His best off speed pitch is likely his change up, something he rarely used in high school but showed a good feel for in his first pro season, with excellent fade on the pitch.

His power curve is the pitch everyone knows, working in the upper-70s, and he can push the velocity to the low-80s to get a near slider effect. He also offers a slider that has similar velocity, so the two pitches can run together at times.

Pint has work to do on repeating his delivery, but the Rockies have already worked with him on small tweaks that over time will help him redefine his mechanics without losing his effectiveness, something they have been noted for doing with other recent power arms they have selected (though those pitchers were college arms and had more experience on their arms).

Pint should see full season ball in 2017 most likely, and how he takes to his mechanical adjustments could lead to him truly blowing up prospect lists.

Next: Top Ten Outfield Prospects

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