Minnesota Twins 2017 Season Preview: Additions, Subtractions, Outlook

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After a run at the Wild Card in 2015, the Minnesota Twins collapsed in 2016 to the point of the worst record in baseball. Is there a bounce-back in store in 2017?

The Minnesota Twins had an impressive run in 2015 with a youthful lineup and consistent pitching that led to a run at the playoffs.

In 2016, they opened the season by competing with the Atlanta Braves for the last team in the majors to win a game (they finally won in their 10th game, opening 0-9), finishing the year with 103 losses, their most in the history of the franchise in Minnesota (the Senators had three worse seasons from 1901-1960 before the franchise moved from Washington).

In fact, the only other time the Twins even lost 100 or more games since moving to Minnesota was in 1982. Though no one exactly WANTS to lose 100 games, listen to the young players on that Twins team – Tim Laudner at catcher, Kent Hrbek at first base, Gary Gaetti at third base, and Tom Brunansky in right field with lefty Frank Viola taking his first turns on the mound. The Twins also happened to draft a future Hall of Fame center fielder in 1982 named Kirby Puckett, so that 1982 season offered plenty of promise for a team that would win the World Series just five years later.

Whether the 2016 Twins have the same type of core is up for debate, but there are certainly the young offensive pieces to build a future contender. It’s the pitching where the Twins struggled mightily in 2016 – pitching and defense, that is.

The Twins pitching staff as a whole was the third worst per Fangraphs WAR produced by the staff in 2016. That, however, was one spot better than their defense fared, ranking second-to-last in team defensive runs saved, having given the opposition 45 runs on the season, according to Fangraphs’ tallies.

So how can the Twins change their fortunes in 2017?

We’ll take a look over the next few pages:

We’ll take a look at the team’s 2016-2017 offseason moves, both the key losses and key additions.

Then we’ll take a look at the team’s lineup and bench, followed by the rotation and bullpen.

We’ll follow that up with a run through of the people in charge of the team in the management, coaching and front office roles.

Finally, you’ll get a prediction of what we at Call to the Pen see as the Twins’ 2017 chances.

Let’s kick it off with the offseason moves…

Next: Offseason Movement

Key Offseason Additions

Probably the largest offseason signing was catcher Jason Castro. While not a “sexy” signing, Castro is well-regarded defensively, and he should provide the Twins pitching with the leadership they sorely missed last season.

For roughly the cost of one season of Castro, the Twins signed two veteran relievers to help shore up what was a rough bullpen in 2016, primarily due to issues with depth. Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow may not be guys who strike fear in opposing offenses, but they will likely not hurt the Twins either.

Scanning the waiver wire this winter, the Twins feel that they found a gem in utility infielder Ehire Adrianza. Adrianza offers defensive flexibility, though he doesn’t offer a ton with the bat.

The Twins did some wheeling and dealing in December’s Rule 5 draft to bring in righty Justin Haley, who was in the Boston Red Sox organization in 2016. He was selected by the Angels in the Rule 5, who then traded him to the Padres, and the Padres turned around and traded him to the Twins for the Twins pick, Miguel Diaz.

Haley is a guy who has started his entire minor league career with a cross-fire delivery, throwing across his body with a fastball in the low-90s along with a change and curve. He’s a guy who would play well in a long man role, which made him an ideal Rule 5 guy.

Key Offseason Losses

When the Twins signed catcher Kurt Suzuki to a three-year deal in the 2013-2014 offseason, they thought they had a solid starter locked up while they developed a future backstop.

After a solid first year under contract, Suzuki fell off offensively and defensively and the Twins did not bring him back this offseason, and he signed as the backup catcher in Atlanta.

At 30 years old, Trevor Plouffe has been part of the Twins organization for 12 seasons after being the 20th overall selection in the 2004 draft out of high school. It was a rather bitter pill for Plouffe to take when he was told by the new Twins brass of their intent to waive him via a voice mail.

Plouffe has found his way to Oakland and is likely to hold down their third base position this season after averaging 23 home runs and 34 doubles per 162 games over the last five seasons.

At the trade deadline last season, the Twins acquired reliever Pat Light from the Boston Red Sox for lefty Fernando Abad. The new Twins regime was not as impressed by Light, trading him away this offseason to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a player to be named or cash.

Let’s take a look at the position players of note for 2017…

Next: Lineup/Bench

Everyday Lineup

While Castro could even be an offensive downgrade from Suzuki, his excellent defensive work should be a huge upgrade, especially as the Twins intend to bring up some young pitching over the next two years and want to have a solid backstop to work with them.

Hometown hero Joe Mauer moved off of catcher after the 2013 season, one of his best offensive seasons that was once again limited due to both his catching schedule and injuries he received at the position. His offense has declined dramatically since that season.

The Minnesota Twins currently have Mauer under contract through 2018 at $23M per season, and when that contract is up after 2018, it’s likely he will be jettisoned as part of the way to open up what is becoming a glut of 1B/DH types in the major and minor leagues in the Twins system.

It may be a surprise that we’re finally discussing Brian Dozier on this page, and not in the “offseason losses” portion of the preview. After by far his best offensive season, when a ridiculous second half fueled a 42-homer season, Dozier was heavily shopped this season by the Twins, who had lengthy conversations with the Dodgers before breaking off.

Dozier is still under contract with the Minnesota Twins through 2018 for $6M this season and $9M in 2018, which would be a very attractive contract to move at the deadline if the Twins still have that desire and he’s still producing.

After a failed experiment in the outfield, Miguel Sano was really forced to third base. To his credit, he’s shown hard work over the offseason to be ready to handle the position in 2017.

Sano struggled to keep up the level of production he showed in his short season of 2015 into the 2016 season, but his power is unquestioned, and he should be a 30 home run hitter with a full season of at bats.

Shortstop has been an absolute mess in the Twins organization for a number of years. Jorge Polanco may not set the world on fire, but he provides the best combination of glove and bat of any option the Twins currently have.

If the highlight didn’t include a member of their infield, it seemed highlights of the Puerto Rico team from the WBC featured Eddie Rosario doing something positive, whether it was making a big defensive play in the outfield or providing an offensive spark.

It may feel like Minnesota Twins fans have been waiting on Byron Buxton forever, but he is only 22 years old. He struggled mightily to open the 2016 season before going down to the AAA level. When he returned in September, he did so with a vengeance, hitting .287/.357/.653 with 9 home runs in that final month of the season.

Buxton already provides elite defense and speed, and if the power potential he’s always had can manifest even to a 15-20 home run guy over a full season, the Twins could live with a lesser batting average.

German-born Max Kepler has seemingly been the “afterthought” prospect behind Buxton and Sano over his minor league career, but he’s been no slouch by any means.

In 2016, Kepler established just that at the major league level. He hit 17 home runs, flashed impressive athleticism offensively and defensively, and showed off a big time arm in the outfield.

The trio of Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler in the outfield could give the Twins one of the better defensive outfields in the league, which could significantly impact the team as their infield defense was notoriously bad in 2016.

Byung Ho Park had a poor introduction to the American game, but not in the way most thought. Many figured he’d struggle to produce power at a level even half of his Korean output, but figured his contact ability would allow him to be useful.

Instead, Park showed very solid power, smacking 12 home runs in just 62 major league games, but he simply was swinging for the fence every time, and the ball found way too many weak spots in his swing, leading to a .191 batting average.

He’s shown very well this spring, however, and the Twins hope the work he did in shortening his two-strike approach can help him to be an impact power bat in the middle of their lineup as he’s likely beaten out Kennys Vargas for the DH role.

Bench

With the looming influx of the Rosario/Buxton/Kepler outfield, the Minnesota Twins shipped outfielder Aaron Hicks to the Yankees last offseason for catcher John Ryan Murphy. Murphy didn’t get much time in the majors in 2016, but the Twins hope he can be the defensive backup to emphasize the point of Castro in the starting role.

Beyond Murphy, the bench will likely be made up of which three out-of-options players impress the most this spring and/or can clear waivers.

Currently, the utility man position will be determined between Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana. Escobar offers the better glove, especially around the infield and more consistent bat while Santana has more experience in the outfield and has more upside with the bat, as evidenced by his impressive 2014 season.

Ehire Adrianza also enters the mix as a defensive-minded infielder, though his experience in the outfield is limited.

Among guys who are more outfield-only, Robbie Grossman and J.B. Shuck are the guys who are out of options in camp. Grossman would seem to have the leg up as he has experience in center field. However, the Twins could decide to keep neither and go with all three of Escobar, Santana, and Adrianza.

There are three guys that I heard great things about in Twins camp that will end up in the minors simply because they have options but could see big league time this year.

Mitch Garver may just be the guy the Twins have been hoping to develop at catcher. He’s savvy behind the plate, not electric defensively, but consistent and rarely makes a mistake, handling pitchers well, and he offers a solid bat as well.

Outfielders Zach Granite and Daniel Palka both made positive impressions for different reasons. Granite is the prototype center field/speed guy who offers elite defense and speed and could be an ideal 4th outfield type to back up all three outfield positions.

Palka has really blossomed in the last two seasons as a hitter, and he shot up the Twins system after being acquired for catcher Chris Herrmann from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2015-2016 offseason.

Palka is a corner outfield/first base guy primarily, but his power is incredibly impressive from the left side, and he’s improved his ability to take a walk as well. He could be in the mix for the DH role if Park struggles out of the gate and he comes out on fire in AAA.

Now, let’s turn to the pitching…

Next: Rotation/Bullpen

Starting Rotation

At the front of the Twins rotation, Ervin Santana is perhaps not what one would consider an “ace”, but he’s steady, a guy who will tally innings every season with effective performance.

He’s signed for two more seasons and an option at a reasonable rate for his production level, so he’s been rumored as a trade candidate, but he could also be a solid staff leader for what will likely be a young staff during that time.

When the Twins acquired Hector Santiago from the Angels last July, many felt the deal was wise simply to get Ricky Nolasco out of Minnesota, a bad fit from day one. With Santiago having just one more year on his contract, he seemed an easy trade candidate at the deadline this season as well.

However, those who saw Santiago pitch in the WBC saw what the Twins did at the end of the season, a pitcher with more to offer than had previously been seen. Santiago has been up and down in his career, but the four-stretch start they saw from August 29 through September 15 showed just how good Santiago can be.

If you scanned fantasy websites before 2016, a very common fantasy sleeper was Twins starter Kyle Gibson. Gibson has tantalized with stuff just on the edge of a #2/#3 starter for multiple seasons and looked after 2015 like he was ready to take that step.

However, after an injury left his 2016 a major mess that ended up a step back, Gibson is now considered a placeholder in the rotation until a younger guy takes his spot. While cheap now, Gibson entered arbitration this offseason for the first time, and he could price himself out of Minnesota Twins plans with his performance in 2017.

Very possibly, the worst decision of the Terry Ryan era as GM of the Minnesota Twins was overreacting to Phil Hughes‘ 2014 season with a $58M extension that has been a mistake since it was signed. Hughes is signed through 2019 at prices that could be quite untradeable at his performance over the 2015-2016 seasons.

Competing for the 5th spot in the rotation this spring, Adalberto Mejia has taken the lead in the competition over Jose Berrios and Tyler Duffey. Mejia is not likely to be a guy who is a front-line starter down the road, but he has consistent stuff that would play well in a back-end role in a rotation.

Berrios will be an interesting consideration as he’s going to be going to AAA to open the season, but the Twins have stated that this was due to him not getting enough innings on his arm this spring while with the WBC. He will be up quickly, however, if Mejia struggles or there is any injury in the rotation.

The Minnesota Twins have been building up a stable of young starters, and currently, they have Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Jay, and Fernando Romero that are all receiving some level of top-100 notice in prospect lists with Gonsalves and Jay both being left-handed and having pitched in AA giving them a leg up on a possible rotation spot if the team were to sell off starters at the deadline.

Romero returned from injury last year and produced like the ace that the Twins have been hoping to develop for years in their rotation and he’ll likely end up in the upper minors this season.

Bullpen

When he was needed in 2016, Brandon Kintzler stepped up into the role of closer and showed very well keeping the ball on the ground in that role. While not dominant, he is consistent in the bullpen and can hold the role.

Minnesota native Glen Perkins has been through a rough 18 months. After trying to pitch through a shoulder issue at the end of 2015, he couldn’t make a go of it in 2016, leading to a very emotional letter to the fans when he underwent surgery.

Perkins has been making progress this spring and should return this year. Whether he will take over his role as closer again or simply return to the role of reliever is another question, and with an option for 2018 the only future obligation the team has, Perkins could be on his way out soon.

In the middle of the bullpen, the Minnesota Twins have a trio of veterans that may not overwhelm or overpower opponents, but Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, and Craig Breslow should be very solid.

Taylor Rogers and Michael Tonkin will serve in the bullpen as well, though Tonkin may have a role as much due to his lack of options than earning his role.

Rule 5 pick Justin Haley fills out the end of the bullpen as the long man.

In the minors, the Twins do have a group of power arms ready and waiting in Buddy Boshers, J.T. Chargois, Alex Wimmers, Jake Reed, and Nick Burdi that could begin impacting the bullpen as soon as midseason.

Now onto the guys calling the shots…

Next: Manager/Coaching Staff/Front Office

Manager

It’s certainly been a roller coaster ride in his first two seasons for Minnesota native Paul Molitor in his first two seasons as manager for his hometown Minnesota Twins.

Molitor graduated from the same high school as Joe Mauer and attended the University of Minnesota before playing a Hall of Fame career in the major leagues, a career that ended with three seasons with the Twins as a player where he picked up his 3,000th hit.

Molitor finished third in the American League manager of the year voting in 2015 after winning 83 games, but after losing 59 games, there were some who were curious if he’d have a job with a new regime in Minnesota, but while his contract was not extended beyond this season (the last year of the deal), the new regime kept Molitor on board.

Coaching Staff

Pitching coach Neil Allen is in his fourth season as the Twins pitching coach after an 11-year pitching career in the major leagues as a reliever. He’s received plenty of notice for his work with young pitchers and had been the pitching coach of the Futures Game in 2013 when he was still a minor league pitching coach.

James Rowson is in his first year as the hitting coach in Minnesota, though he’s been a coach at the professional level for 16 seasons. He has long-time Twins coach Rudy Hernandez as his assistant hitting coach, a position he’s held for two previous seasons.

The most fun coach may just be former Minnesota Twins reliever Eddie Guardado, the bullpen coach. Guardado has been noted for his fan interaction in the spring and in the bullpen as this marks his third season as the Twins’ bullpen coach.

Front Office

Front office change has been mentioned a few times here, and it is a significant part of the 2017 preview for the Twins.

General Manager Terry Ryan resigned in midseason 2016, leaving his assistant Rob Antony to run the team for the rest of the season as interim.

The Cleveland Indians have been a front office talent machine recently, churning out front office personnel for other teams at a high rate, and the Twins tapped into that market, naming Derek Falvey as their Chief Baseball Officer and Executive Vice President along with Thad Levine as the General Manager.

While Falvey comes from the Indians organization, Levine comes from the Texas Rangers organization and has been in major league baseball since 1998 with the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers as well as the Rangers.

Next: Prediction

2017 Prediction

Now comes the fun part…

Baseball Prospectus’ Pecota projection system foresees the Twins finishing third in the NL Central with a 78-84 record, which would place them 14 games behind division winner Cleveland, but just seven games out of the second wild card spot, per their projections.

Fangraphs’ Steamer projection system sees the Twins finishing with the seventh-worst record in the league at 75-87.

The most recent Westgate odds from Las Vegas have the Twins tied for the fourth-worst shot to win the World Series at 100-1.

In other words, not another 100-loss season, but probably not 100 wins either. So where in there would things fall?

More from Call to the Pen

The Twins outfield will absolutely be fun to watch in 2017 with Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario all guys that fantasy owners and pure baseball fans alike can appreciate.

There should also be plenty of interest in Minneapolis as the July trade deadline nears as the Twins do have plenty of excellent pieces that could have value to a contending club that could fetch pieces a rebuilding club will want.

The big event for Minnesota Twins fans, perhaps unfortunately, will be the Major League Baseball draft in June, when the Twins have not only the first pick, but also the 35th and 37th selection, giving them an opportunity to truly grab a collection of talent into their organization early in the draft.

The prediction here is for the Twins to win 77 games, finishing the year third in their division as one of either the Tigers or Royals falls off hard in the second half and the Twins play steady ball and bump ahead of them by season’s end.

That’s not a huge season, but it would also represent an 18-game improvement over 2016!

Next: Top Right-Handed Prospects

As a look back at the 2016 season shows, there were not a ton of highlights, but one of the most exciting was seeing the dynamic speed of the team’s hopeful future superstar on this play, recorded as the fastest home-to-home time in the league in 2016:

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