Breaking Down Pre-Breakout Phillies
Based on expectations for each player and overall by management, 2017’s goal is .500 ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, who have plugged last summer’s holes with veterans: two outfielders, two relievers and a starting pitcher.
The Stat Ceiling:
In life, you can either go forward, backward or enjoy the plateau you have reached because reality has dawned on you.
As Opening Day appears on the horizon, Double D, a poster from another site, asked about the growth of some future stars. These ticket sellers are the ones fans come to root for and see hit, run, pitch and field. And while the rebuilding efforts are beginning to bear fruit, the paying customers want to experience rallies, comebacks, homers, saves and more victories than defeats.
With 136 innings last season, Vince Velasquez increased his workload by 47 1/3 frames or 54.3 percent. So, adding 60 innings would equal 196 frames, but the front office of the Philadelphia Phillies may prefer a limit of 180 innings. Yet if he can achieve a 12-6 record with a 3.30 ERA, what would you call that, Double D? A breakout year!
During bullpen sessions, pitching coach Bob McClure keeps reminding Velasquez to improve his secondary offerings. And even though the fireballer – who will only be 25 in early June – loves his 95-mph smoke, he probably parrots the right words during interviews, but his youthful mentality takes over when his fingers find the fastball grip by force of habit. And coach makes a mental note. Later, McClure will meet with the battery on the mound to point out the lapses he noticed from the dugout.
IN OTHER WORDS: “I became a good pitcher when I stopped trying to make them miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it.” – Sandy Koufax
Pitching:
- Velasquez: 24 Gms., 131 Inn., 8-6, a 4.12 ERA, a 2.2 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
- Nola: 20 Gms., 111 Inn., 6-9, a 4.78 ERA, a 2.8 fWAR and a 1.31 WHIP.
From the finesse half of this one-two punch, Aaron Nola has allayed fears of a major elbow problem and didn’t pitch as if his job was at stake. In other words, Double D, his main concern was his health and McClure reinforced that thinking. Last summer, Nola was 5-4 with a 2.65 ERA for his first 12 outings, which is 40 percent of a 30-start campaign. And if he can stay healthy with just a few difficult patches for 30 games, he could finish with a 12-8 mark and a 3.50 ERA.
Nola’s stats before his struggles:
- 3-2 with a 1.98 ERA for 41 innings versus the Reds, Padres, Brewers and Braves.
- 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA for 37 frames against the Nationals, Cardinals, Marlins and Tigers.
Despite a circuitous route to the majors, Tommy Joseph is not only ready for an entire 162 at first base, but he also plans to enjoy the numbers he will eye on the Bank’s scoreboard. Additionally, the former catcher is coming off an impressive season: a .257 average, 21 home runs and 47 RBI for 347 at-bats, which projects to 33 long balls and 75 RBI for 550 ABs. Of course, he’ll have more at-bats against same-handed hurlers, but so far he’s made the necessary adjustments to National League moundsmen. Well, Double D, a breakout year for him would be .270 with 30 four-baggers and 80 RBI.
After learning that he can’t be the entire offense and an RBI double isn’t second-best to a homer, Maikel Franco will not want to hear hitting coach Matt Stairs reminding him of wasted at-bats during every contest. Yes, Stairs’ strategy for Franco doesn’t include disappointment. But the interesting aspect of hitting .280 with 30 home runs and 100 RBI was his 2016 performance: a .255 average, 25 long balls and 88 RBI, which is short by an average of .025 with five four-baggers and 12 RBI. Aren’t 35 homers and 115 RBI possible?
Before each game, the batted balls, the clangs off the cage and Stairs encouraging or yelling at his regulars during batting practice will interrupt the tranquility in the empty stands. Your swing is too long! And he also informs Franco that he has to stroke some opposite-field doubles to beat the shift.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “One of the hardest parts of practice is the criticism a player takes from his coaches. Some players think a coach has it in for them when a flaw in style is pointed out … I know that when things start going wrong, for one, I get the coach to keep his eye on me to see what I’m suddenly doing wrong. I can’t see it or I wouldn’t be doing it in the first place.” – Willie Mays
Double D, a .300 average to achieve a breakout campaign is a rarity, but Odubel Herrera is one of a kind. Yes, other Rule 5 selections have made their mark in the major leagues, but each of those stars also had a uniqueness that set them apart. And Herrera falls into that category, but will a .310 mark get him into the batting title conversation? Ergo, the top 10!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Pitching:
- Velasquez, almost 25: 24 Gms., 131 Inn., 8-6, a 4.12 ERA, a 3.96 FIP, a 3.67 xFIP, a 3.62 SIERA, a 2.2 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
- Nola, almost 24: 20 Gms., 111 Inn., 6-9, a 4.78 ERA, a 3.08 FIP, a 3.08 xFIP, a 3.29 SIERA, a 2.8 fWAR and a 1.31 WHIP.
Next: Big Roster Test for Phillies GM
Hitting:
- Herrera, 25: 159 Gms., 656 PA, a .286 Avg., a .361 OBP, a .420 SLG, a .134 ISO, a .349 BABIP, 15 HR, 49 RBI, a .781 OPS, a 4.0 fWAR, 25 SB, 7 CS and a 6.3 Spd.
- Franco, 24.5: 152 Gms., 630 PA, a .255 Avg., a .306 OBP, a .427 SLG, a .172 ISO, a .271 BABIP, 25 HR, 88 RBI, a .733 OPS and a 1.4 fWAR.
- Joseph, 25.5: 107 Gms., 347 PA, a .257 Avg., a .308 OBP, a .505 SLG, a .248 ISO, a .267 BABIP, 21 HR, 47 RBI, an .813 OPS and a 0.9 fWAR.