MLB: Ranking the Top 30 First Basemen Going Into the 2017 Regular Season

In the second portion of the 2017 MLB positional previews, we project the game’s top 30 first basemen heading into opening day.

In what normally is a premier offensive position in professional baseball, there is no shortage of first baseman that can absolutely rake. There’s also a good mix of veterans and young players that show MLB’s diversity of talent regardless of age.

All of these quality first baseman in the league made it particularly difficult to formulate this list. In fact, it’s one of the most talented positions in the game just by looking at the impact they each have on their respective teams.

Like in the catchers list, this ranking is merely supposed to project who will be the better player for the 2017 season only. Not who had the best year in 2016 or who has the best outlook over the next five; this list will only analyze how good each player will be for this upcoming season.

This relies on a bevy factors. Offense is the most indicative of where they will be ranked, but defense and playing time will also factor in. For example, if there is a talented minor leaguer that won’t get the number of at bats for a reasonable sample size, he wouldn’t qualify.

With that being said, backups are fair play as there are a number of bench players who compare favorably to projected starters.

So what will the breakdown of MLB’s first baseman look like? Click on to find out….

Watch List

This group focuses on players that are not in the top 30 because of the variety of factors that were previously mentioned. All are unproven, but have a certain amount if upside if they were to get regular at bats at the major league level.

Eric Thames (Milwaukee Brewers)

After failing to catch on in the major leagues, Thames was a premier player in the Korean Baseball Organization. Now he’s back and set to take over as the starting first baseman for the Milwaukee Brewers. This was a rather surprising decision considering that the team non-tendered Chris Carter, who was one of the top power hitters, for a guy that hasn’t since MLB action since 2012. While there’s high hopes for the 30 year-old, it’s tough to rank Thames on this list because of the lack of track record in the majors. He certainly could’ve improved since being away from the states, but that is something that I’ll have to see to believe before I project him as a top 30 player at his position.

Dan Vogelbach (Seattle Mariners)

The Mariners acquired this first baseman/designated hitter from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for a very solid pitcher in Mike Montgomery. Obviously, Seattle thinks that the rookie can contribute at the major league level, but it looks like he’ll have to do that in a part-time role. He’ll open the season in Triple-A, but he figures to be a good platoon partner with Danny Valencia at first base. Vogelbach does have a considerable amount of power in his game, even though there’s genuine concern about his defense at first base. He’s not a real dynamic player, but his home run capabilities will be something to watch out for with the MLB regular season approaching.

Sam Travis (Boston Red Sox)

Travis is somewhat overlooked when it comes to the Boston Red Sox farm system. However, now that Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and Anderson Espinoza are all gone, Travis now takes center stage along with the likes of Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers. At 23 years old, the right handed hitter is almost ready to make an impact at the major league level. He’s blocked by the likes of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, but if one of those veterans were to falter Travis could come in handy as a talented young hitter who could fit in quite nicely with the young core the Red Sox already have in place. Travis’ impact all stems from opportunity, and if he gets it, he could surprise some folks with his strong all around offensive skills.

Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Bellinger is one of my personal favorite prospects in all of baseball. Not only can he play first base, he’s also capable of holding down both corner outfield positions. However, for all intent and purposes, we’ll put him on the watch list as a first baseman. Adrian Gonzalez is getting up there in age and we don’t know how much longer his body will be able to continue to hold up during a 162 game season. Like Travis, Bellinger’s 2017 MLB impact is dependent on a veteran in front of him either struggling or going down with injury. If Bellinger does get a chance to receive frequent MLB at bats, I’m confident that he will produce solid numbers right at the onset because of his power and advanced approach at the plate.

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30. Matt Adams (St. Louis Cardinals) 

Last season was not kind to Matt Adams. His teammate, Matt Carpenter, took over full-time at first base and that left the left-handed power hitter on the bench to be the Cardinals top pinch hitter. It wasn’t long ago that Adams was considered a building block of the St. Louis lineup, but he’s saw a stark decline since 2014. Adams was never great at drawing walks, but he was able to keep his average high enough where that wasn’t a problem. Now that he’s hitting in the .240’s, his lack of walks are showing even more. At 28 years old, Adams is still in his prime and is a capable power hitter. His hard contact rate remained high in 2016 and does not strike out nearly as much as his uppercut swing would indicate. Just because he’s a backup doesn’t mean that he wouldn’t be a starting first baseman somewhere else. But his play over the past two seasons as relegated him to a lesser role in St. Louis.

29. Yonder Alonso (Oakland Athletics)

Back when he was a former San Diego Padres prospect, many MLB people saw Alonso as a potential above average first baseman. Now in Oakland, Alonso still hasn’t reached that level of play. Overall, he’s a capable starting first baseman, but he’s given us no reason to think that he’s anything more than that. His numbers are pretty average across the board. I do think that the Oakland Coliseum is dropping his home run numbers when looking at the spike of doubles he had since joining the Athletics last year. He’s a good placeholder for the franchise’s next cornerstone first baseman, although that’s certainly not an encouraging phrase in regards to the high expectations that were placed on the soon-to-be 30 year-old many years ago.

28. Ryan Zimmerman (Washington Nationals)

It’s honestly quite sad to see the sharp decline of Ryan Zimmerman over the past few years. He’s still beloved by Nationals fans who know him as the face of the organization, but he is certainly not that anymore based on his play. Zimmerman finished 2016 with a WAR below -1.0 and was unable to get above the .300 on-base percentage line. He did hit 15 home runs, which was sorta the saving grace of his 2016 campaign, but all his other indicators showed a player that will soon have to be relegated to a bench role. I don’t think that will necessarily be in 2017, but in terms of starting first baseman, he’s on the lower end of that scale. Zimmerman should see a slight uptick in his batting average considering that he was a little unlikely to finish with the numbers he did considering his hard contact percentage was rather good. However, Zimmerman will remain to be a shell of is former self in 2017.

27. Jurickson Profar (Texas Rangers)

I’ve had a soft spot for Profar since he was the number one overall prospect in MLB back when he was a rookie. He was projected to have above average hitting skills all around and was a versatile defender to boot. The only problem is that Profar has struggled all around when he’s seen sustained time at the major league level. However, he’s only 24 years old and he did have some good stretches over the course of the 2016 MLB regular season. Some positives were that his K-BB ratio was good and he was able to appear in 90 games in a season for the first time in his MLB career. The negatives did outweigh some of what he did well. His low hard contact rate and his lack of power is troubling considering that he was projected to be an average power hitter at the very least. There’s still some upside in his game, but he has to show it soon because he has the likes of Mike Napoli, Ryan Rua and Joey Gallo breathing down his neck for playing time.

26. Chris Carter (New York Yankees)

According to Joe Girardi, Chris Carter has lost the Yankees first base job to youngster Greg Bird. This decision was made primarily because of Bird tearing up spring training and Carter slumping badly. With this being said, this doesn’t mean that Carter isn’t worthy of the 26th spot on this list. We all know that the right-handed power hitter is one of the most home run or bust hitters in baseball, but the power is just so elite that he should be at least at this level of MLB first basemen. Carter strikes out a lot and has been doing so this spring as well. He does walk at a high rate though, which somewhat negates his career batting average numbers. Carter should receive enough playing time to justify this place on the list because he should hit around 25-30 home runs in 2017. It just won’t be pretty everywhere else.

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25. Mitch Moreland (Boston Red Sox)

Moreland has been a mainstay with the Texas Rangers during his time in MLB. Now he will reside in Boston in order to help them at first base. The left handed hitter has had his moments in his career, hitting for solid power and flashing a pretty solid glove at the position. His best seasons came in 2012 and 2015 where he hit in the .270’s along with double digit home runs. However, Moreland has never been a well known player to just the casual fan. His numbers last year were helped by his 22 long balls, but he was held back from truly thriving with his batting average and on-base percentage being on the lower-end of the spectrum. As a veteran his numbers in Boston shouldn’t change that much, but I don’t think the Red Sox expect them to.

24. Tommy Joseph (Philadelphia Phillies)

As a 24 year-old rookie last season, Joseph was one of the bright spots on a Phillies team that sat at the bottom of the National League. It was clear by midseason that Joseph had overtaken Phillies great Ryan Howard, even though it really didn’t take much to do so. In just 107 games, the first baseman hit 21 home runs and ended the 2016 season with a slugging percentage over .500. He also did that while not striking out at a very high rate. His hard contact percentage would also signal that this type of power isn’t a fluke. Joseph was never thought of as an extraordinary talent as a minor leaguer, but he definitely showed that he can hold his own in his first MLB season. He’ll get the majority of the at bats at first base and he should be a solid option for the rebuilding Phillies.

23. Greg Bird (New York Yankees)

2015 Stats

Here’s a player that could significantly surpass his place on this list. I was a little more cautious with Bird’s ranking because he did miss the entire 2016 season with injury, which should always bring some pause even if any proclaims that they are now fully healthy. Apart from the injury, Bird has shown signs of really breaking out into a quality everyday first baseman. In his first action as an MLB player, Bird showed a good approach at the plate and a power stroke that looks to play against big league pitching. Granted it was only for 46 games, but it was clear that Bird has the talent to be a starting first baseman at the highest level of baseball.

Like many young hitters, there are concerns with the strikeout numbers, but his potential power output, especially in Yankees Stadium, is something that all baseball fans should keep a close eye on as the regular season progresses. He will likely have to split time with the newly signed Chris Carter, but he’ll have his opportunities to continue to validate his 2015 performance.

22. Steve Pearce (Toronto Blue Jays)

Pearce is an interesting player. His breakout year came in 2014 when he was with the Baltimore Orioles. He actually can play all around the diamond, but he figures to mainly profile as a platoon partner with Justin Smoak at first base. Pearce is a superior player compared to Smoak, and really is a solid player overall. Pearce had another really good season in 2016. He hit in the high .280’s and has walked to pump up his on-base percentage. Pearce also doesn’t strike out and has a track record of putting up solid power numbers. The reason he didn’t crack the top 20 is not only because the position is deep, but that he can’t consistently been at this level throughout his MLB career. Prior to 2014, Pearce was a Triple-A player. And even though the utilityman has clearly figured things out in the majors, he’s ceiling remains low, although he is a really nice player overall.

21. Danny Valencia (Seattle Mariners)

Valencia is incredibly similar to Steve Pearce. Both can play multiple positions, are set to be platoon player this coming season and have seen their careers take off after a few years of relative ambiguity. This is why these two are essentially tied with each other on this list. However, they must be ranked and I’m going to give the edge to Valencia. The reasons being…he’s younger and coming off of two good seasons rather than one. Now that may seem a little odd, but these players are just so close. Valencia will primarily play first in 2017 and should continue to scorch left-handed pitching in the batters box (.318 BA in 2016). Valencia has a pretty swing and can easily power balls over the fence when he’s seeing pitches well. The only downside is his strikeout numbers, but he’s still underrated in my opinion.

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15. C.J. Cron (Los Angeles Angels)

Directly following Valbuena is the player who was the everyday first baseman for the Angels in 2016. Cron is much younger and offers more upside than his new first base counterpart. He’s gotten better each of the seasons he’s been in the big leagues and I expect that trend to continue in 2017 being that he is only 27 years old. Cron hit a combined 32 home runs over the last two years and is capable of producing extra base hits as well. His .278 batting average may be a bit high considering his skillset, but I expect that he will finally eclipse the 20 home run mark if he gets enough playing time to do so. He’ll have a chance at solidifying the everyday job with Valbuena on the sidelines to start 2017.

14. Wil Myers (San Diego Padres)

Wil Myers was absolutely one of the biggest surprises in the first half of the 2016 MLB season. Since his outstanding rookie season in 2013 with the Tampa Bay Rays, Myers hasn’t looked like the top prospect he was when he first entered the league. Myers made his first all star team thanks to a big first couple months of the season, but unfortunately this was followed by a fairly huge falloff in the dwindling months of his 2016 campaign. Now this could be racked up to the fact that the Padres were at the bottom of the standings and there was nothing to play for, but players on bad teams have still overcome this in the past. However. I am a believer in Myers hitting ability. I think that his aggressive approach can produce flashy power numbers, but it was clear that his average was probably higher than it should have been in the first half of last year. Still, he did end up with 28 home runs in a pitcher friendly park, which shouldn’t be discarded when looking at where he stacks up against other first baseman.

13. Eric Hosmer (Kansas City Royals)

Eric Homer and Salvador Perez have been the consistent faces and leaders during the recent success of the Kansas City Royals organization. At just 27 years old, the left handed hitter faces a contract season and there is pressure for him to deliver with a mega-contract in sight. It was bit of an odd season for Hosmer in 2016 as he opted for more of a power approach rather than his normal all around batting average based hitting game. He racked up career highs in home runs and strikeouts, which would signal that he was looking to up his power numbers. I don’t know what his mindset is coming into this season, but there is no doubt that he has a good track record with the bat and is clearly a good bet to not move far from this position on the list come the beginning of next season.

12. Adrian Gonzalez (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Another staple at first base, Adrian Gonzalez has aged gracefully. Far from his prime years with the San Diego Padres, the tall left hander is entering his age 35 season. While he is getting older, there are no signs that the first baseman is slowing down. In 2016, he hit for a high batting average and posted a solid array of numbers around that. He knows that pitching that he is facing like the back off his hand and he is a veteran in every sense of the word. We’ve seen older players continue to produce late in their 30s and it’s looking more likely that Gonzalez will be on of those guys. He’s absolutely not as explosive or dynamic as some of the other players on this list. But just because he is unspectacular that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t deserve to be placed this highly on these rankings.

11. Ian Desmond (Colorado Rockies)

In a surprise twist, Ian Desmond will suit up as a first baseman in 2017. After a signed on with the Colorado Rockies during the MLB Winter Meetings, it was clear that manager Bud Black wanted the former shortstop and outfielder to switch positions once again. This is rather surprising because Desmond had come a long way defensively over the past year in the outfield. The upside to signing Desmond is that he brings another dynamic hitter to the Rockies lineup. After Desmond took a prove it deal with the Texas Rangers last offseason, which was met with much success. Desmond finished the year with a WAR close to 3.0 and added a batting average in the .280s to boot.

Earlier in his career Desmond was praised for his power potential because he was a shortstop. Although he won’t be a premier power hitter at his new position, Desmond will still be a solid mid 20s home run guy, maybe even more considering that he’s playing in Coors Field now half the time. The only factor holding him back is that he hasn’t been too consistent of a player throughout his career and he’s never really had the best on-base rates considering his aggressive approach.

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10. Carlos Santana (Cleveland Indians)

Terry Francona made the decision to keep Santana at first base this season, while placing Edwin Encarnacion as the team’s everyday designated hitter. Santana, who started his career as a catcher, has kind of flown under the radar because of the growth of Francisco Lindor and just the depth at the first base position. Santana will turn 31 this May, so the slugger is no longer a spring chicken. He did hit better than he ever has in 2016. With an outstanding 1:1 K-BB ratio and 34 bombs to his name, it’s clear that Santana is a middle of the order bat in any lineup. Combine this with a high on-base and slugging percentage and you get a guy who clearly has figured out MLB pitching after spending a few years in the show.

I’ve always personally thought that Santana’s swing got a little too wild, but there is no doubt that he knows what he’s doing in the batter’s box. I really don’t expect his batting average to be as high but if he can hit .250, keep his K-BB ratio consistent and hit around 25 homers, that would make for an above average year.

9. Chris Davis (Baltimore Orioles)

Chris Davis is a combination of pure awe and also pure frustration. At times, the menacing left-handed first baseman looks like he just can’t be stopped, hitting home runs to all parts of the ballpark and pretty much getting a solid piece of any pitch even if it’s out of the strike zone. This is the guy that lead MLB in home runs twice over the past four years. Then there’s the other Chris Davis. This player strikes out once in every two at bats and is swinging at pitches that are constantly in the dirt.

Balance these two players and you get a guy that could really go either way at any time while still giving you really the same production come season’s end. In what was considered a “down” season, Davis launched closed to 40 balls over the fence and posted a tremendous hard contact percentage of 40.3 percent. While he does rack up the K’s, he still does well to walk at a high rate too. I expect a somewhat bounceback season from the Orioles slugger as that seems to be the pattern that he is going on in recent times.

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8. Jose Abreu (Chicago White Sox)

I appreciate Jose Abreu for the player that he is. Consistent, under-the-radar and really good at pretty much every aspect of the game. His best season to date was his 2014 rookie campaign when he hit over .300 and jacking 36 bombs in 145 games. Then the next year Abreu got to the 30 home run mark while keeping a batting average in the .290s. He fell off somewhat with the power last season, hitting “only” 25 big flies. This slight decline does not concern me whatsoever given the fact that Abreu has proven himself to a a true middle of the order hitter. He has an easy swing that can carry balls over the fence and all around the field. He’s not limited by dry spells, which ultimately puts him ahead of Chris Davis. Abreu should once again, even with a subpar lineup around him, put up top ten first baseman numbers in 2017. Expect a high batting average an above average power because that’s the player he’s shown himself to be since he joined MLB.

7. Brandon Belt (San Francisco Giants)

The Gants were wise to lock up Belt to a long-term extension during last regular season. He’s a key cog in a lineup that includes many solid hitters, however he is arguably the best outside of Buster Posey, obviously. As a hitter, Belt opts for more of the doubles game than power. Even though some of this may come from the affects of playing in SAFECO Field. Nonetheless, I’m sure that the Giants are more than happy with his output. Belt is a player that you can rely on to produce throughout a MLB season. Four out of his past five seasons have been really good years and I expect that type of production to continue in 2017. The reason Belt is over Jose Abreu is simply because WAR signifies that he is a more valuable player because of the defensive deficiencies in Abreu’s game.

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6. Matt Carpenter (St. Louis Cardinals)

Matt Carpenter is another first baseman who came up as another position (third base). Carpenter has solidified himself as the Cardinals best all around hitter post Albert Pujols, which is quite a big feat. The left handed hitter may not look physically imposing as some others on this list, but don’t let that fool you, he’s a monster in the batter’s box. Not only does Carpenter possess both extra base hit and home run power, he is just a tough out in general. He has hit for a high average during his career (.284) and he consistently posts on-base percentages that frequently are 100 points higher than his batting averages for a particular season. Carpenter’s hard contact percentage was also insane in 2016, which verifies all of the other offensive statistics he has produced last season and in the years prior. He may be the most underrated hitter in MLB, but that shouldn’t be the case because he is a premier hitter in this league when considering what you see and what you research.

5. Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds)

Joey Votto is the walk king. He has walked over 100 times in three out of the past four years. The veteran hitter certainly isn’t just a walk machine, but that’s what he’s been known as in MLB circles. His ridiculously high on-bae percentages jump off the page when looking at season leaders throughout the season. In fact, Votto only trailed MVP Mike Trout in on-base percentage by the end of the 2016 season. His high batting average does signify that he’s an above average hitter when facing MLB pitching. His 29 home runs also indicate that he can hit balls over the fence at a high rate as well.

Votto will waste away in Cincinnati by choice as he decided that he wanted to be the face of the franchise there. While that may push him down in perception in terms of the elite players at the position, Votto remains one of the best overall bats with perhaps the best approach at the plate in all of baseball. Vote would be the best player at many other positions, first base is just that strong at the top.

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4. Miguel Cabrera (Detroit Tigers)

Cabrera has probably the best pure right handed swing that the game has ever seen. This swing has played well as he has gotten older even after a slight power scare in 2015, when he hit 18 homers over 118 games. Now he’s back after a 38 home run season in 2016 and has solidified himself as one of the best pure hitters in the game again. There’s really not much to say about Cabrera with the track record that he has. He not only can hit for average by change his swing to adjust to the pitch. He can also hit a ball out coming from anywhere over the plate. Now that he’s in his mid 30’s, people should keep a close high on his physical condition considering that he has never been an extremely fit player. But as of now, he’ll still be a major pain in the neck for any pitcher that has to face him.

3. Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves)

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Freddie Freeman posted the highest WAR of any first baseman in 2016. On an Atlanta Braves team that is constantly looking towards the future, they have one of the best hitters in the game now in Freeman. At just 27 years old, the former top prospect took a major step forward last season.

Freeman has always been talented with the bat in his hands, but his production last year signified a major jump in the first base rankings. He posted a batting average over .300, a slugging percentage over .565 and an outstanding .968 OPS. His hard contact percentage was great as well and he capped his season off by hitting a season-high 34 home runs.

All of this shows why Freeman’s WAR was high in addition to the fact that he did this with only a few real protections around him in the Braves lineup. The reason he’s not number one is because that his track record shows that he is not as high of a level player as he was in 2016, even though the jump in production may be real. There are just two other players that I expect to surpass him in the tiers of MLB first baseman.

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2. Anthony Rizzo (Chicago Cubs)

On a team for of young bucks, Rizzo seems like the player that will emerge as the Cubs leader for their team’s young core. At only 27 years old, Rizzo is an elder statesman when compared to the likes of Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell. Rizzo’s offensive numbers were elite in 2016. He hit over .290 for the first time in his career and maintained the high walk rate that he had posted throughout the six years he’s been an MLB player. He’s hit 30 home runs over the last three years and I expect that this trend will continue this coming regular season. His relatively hard contact low percentage is a little bit of a problem, but not much of an indicator considering how consistently productive he’s been as a big league hitter. With the type of lineup that he has around him, he should get a lot of hittable pitches to help continue his ascension up the MLB ladder.

1. Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Paul Goldschmidt did not have his very best year in 2016, at least offensively. The 29 year-old has garnered the reputation has one of the best hitters in baseball since his breakout 2013 campaign. Since then, he’s made the all star team every single year by posting on-base percentages in the .400’s while also garnering strong home run totals. His strikeouts have been a little bit off a drawback, but then again, no player is perfect (outside of Mike Trout of course). His home run rate was slightly down in 2016, but there was a lot of turmoil going on in the Diamondbacks organizations throughout all those months, which I’m sure put a stress on the ballclub.

The fact is that Goldschmidt’s superior mix of on-base percentage and power put him at the top of the list in terms of projected who will be the best all around player at the position come season’s end. There are multiple candidates that could fill this top spot, but the combination of all around hitting skills, track record, consistency, power and overall game is what makes Goldschmidt the most likely to be the best best first baseman in MLB come the final day of the regular season.

Next: Top 30 Catchers Going Into 2017

How would you rank the first baseman before the start of the MLB season? Let us know in the comment section below. Also, be on the lookout for the top 30 second baseman.