MLB Team X-Factors for 2017, Part V: NL Central

As we take a look at the one player who will have the greatest impact on each MLB team, we continue with the National League Central.

The National League Central. Many baseball fans already have the division written in stone. The Chicago Cubs at the top, the Cincinnati Reds at the bottom, and it doesn’t really matter anywhere between that.

Let’s be careful, though. As many have noted, division winner turnover is a real thing, and there are many teams that we have believed to be absolute locks who have thoroughly disappointed. It seems to happen to the Boston Red Sox every other year.

We think of this as the Cubs division right now because we are in-the-moment creatures. Before 2016, the Cubs were struggling to get over the hump, struggling to topple a Cardinals dynasty that had won three straight division titles. Before 2016, the Pittsburgh Pirates had made the playoffs (at least the wild card game version) the last three years and seemed like a team with an upward trajectory. Last season certainly may have been a sign of things to come (Cubs mini-dynasty starting, Pirates star aging fast), but there’s also a very good chance we look back on 2016 as a slight blip in the radar. A one-off in which the Pirates fell flat before returning to the postseason once again. A rare Cubs title for what is still a cursed franchise.

The NL Central may seem like it is set in stone, but as we all know, just when we think we have things figured out, the universe throws us a (Corey Kluber-esque) curveball.

So who are the players who could swing the NL Central in 2017? There are plenty of them, but here are five who seem the most primed to do so this season.

Chicago Cubs – Wade Davis

It is mighty difficult to imagine any one player on the Cubs truly making enough of a difference to drop the Cubs out of the playoffs (despite the luscious introduction to this article). The Cubs have as much team talent as any club in recent memory. What happens if Kris Bryant slips from an 8-win player to a 4-win player (which I would say is quite unlikely)? Well the team falls all the way down from 103 wins to 99 wins – still a great team. What happens if Kyle Hendricks sees his ERA jump from 2.13 to 3.59 (his xFIP in 2016)? Well maybe that’s one or two losses, but the team would still be prohibitive favorites to win the NL Central.

The team is so ridiculously stacked that an article had to be written with the premise that a Joe Maddon team building exercise would have to result in Kris Bryant being eaten by a snake to see the Cubs miss the postseason this year.

Besides a snake going rogue (and the other, less ridiculous ways Kram laid out), there is one other way I could see it happening. A complete and utter bullpen collapse. We all know how volatile bullpens can be and as smart as Theo and co. are, no one has proven they have solved year-to-year reliable bullpen arms just yet. The Cubs had the eighth-best bullpen ERA in 2016, but they ranked just 14th by FIP. The club will also be without the second half brilliance (1.01 ERA, 15.5 K/9) of Aroldis Chapman who the Cubs brought in to solidify the bullpen at the 2016 trade deadline.

This year’s closer for the Cubs will be Wade Davis, he of the vaunted “HDH” Royals killer bullpen that led to them to much success in 2014 and 2015. Davis is fresh off a season in which he saved 27 games and finished the year with an ERA of 1.87. So why is he such an x-factor? For one, we just noted how volatile bullpen arms can be. Despite his nice ERA, Davis also posted an xFIP of 3.68 last season, also know as a worse xFIP than Keone Kela (3.64 xFIP) a Phillies reliever who ended the season with an ERA of 6.09 – relievers are weird guys.

There’s also the matter of Davis’ health. Davis began to deal with arm injuries in the second half of 2016, with his fastball velocity dropping as he tried to battle through the injury until the Royals sent him to the DL twice in the span of a month midway through the season. That sort of an injury can be terrifying for a 31-year-old reliever, even one as dominant as Davis has been in his career. If Davis is ineffective or goes down to injury, Hector Rondon would likely end up in the closer’s role for the Cubs, a sentence which is sure to send a shiver down the spine of all Chicago fans.

Even in that scenario, the Cubs would probably just trade one of their still numerous top prospects for Edwin Diaz or something and go back to being immortal within seconds. But one can dream.

Cincinnati Reds – Brandon Finnegan and Cody Reed

In a sense, choosing an x-factor that is going to actually change anything for the Reds in 2017 is nearly as challenging as the Cubs; just for the exact opposite reason. Barring a minor miracle (or whatever was in the water in 2015, Year of the Anti-Projections), the Reds are going to be irrelevant from Day One of 2017. FanGraphs Depth Charts has them projected as the third-worst team in baseball, and that somehow feels generous. There’s not a lot to see here right now.

Two of the names that should be watched, however, are Finnegan and Reed. These two represent two of the first pieces to hit the majors from the fire sale that the Reds are likely to be involved in over the next few seasons. These two pitchers were obtained from the Royals when the Reds decided to cash in Johnny Cueto at the 2015 trade deadline. Finnegan was already at the major league level and Reed wasn’t far off; for Reds fans, these two represent the first pieces of the next potential Reds Contending Team.

The two had vastly different 2016 seasons. Finnegan spent the entirety of the season at the big-league level, and he actually had some nice success. The 5’11” lefty threw 172.0 innings and finished the year with an ERA+ of 107 (or an ERA of 3.98, if you prefer). He was second on the team in wins, innings pitched and strikeouts. With Dan Straily (the leader in all three) out of town, Finnegan is the returning ace. There are plenty of questions if even that slightly-above-average season from Finnegan was legitimate, though. Finnegan’s FIP (5.19) and strikeout rate (7.59 K/9) were far from ace level and raised some serious questions heading into 2017.

Which Finnegan is the real Finnegan? (Classic x-factor question.) The Finnegan who threw over 170 innings with a better than average ERA, including a second half in which his ERA was an impressive 2.93? Or the Finnegan who – even in that vaunted second half – posted a 4.45 FIP that showed he may have just been mighty lucky, especially considering the homer-friendly home ballpark in which he makes half his starts?

As for Reed, 2016 didn’t hold many positives. There was the simple fact that he made his MLB debut – a lifetime goal achieved to be sure – but he was properly greeted when he got there, racking up a 7.36 ERA in 47.2 big-league innings. He also sported a less-than-ideal 0-7 win-loss record for those who care about those things. (And, as the man of record, Reed almost certainly cared about that thing.) The numbers suggest that Reed was a bit unlucky (6.06 FIP, 4.29 xFIP), but anyone who saw him pitch knows he has a lot of work to do.

And that’s alright. Reed is still not 24 years old, and he is less than 50 innings into what might end up as a nice career. He was a top-100 prospect in baseball each of the last two seasons, and he should get a legitimate chance at the full-time rotation in 2017. For what it’s worth (maybe a little bit more than nothing with a young player), Reed has looked excellent this spring, striking out 20 batters in 16.2 innings with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 0.96.

For Reds fans to start to have faith in the rebuilding process guys like Finnegan and Reed will have to start producing in 2017 and beyond.

Milwaukee Brewers – Jonathan Villar

For a team that is supposedly rebuilding, the Brewers look mighty fun in 2017. Their outfield of Domingo Santana–Keon Broxton–Ryan Braun is one of the most fun in all of MLB. (If Boston, Miami and Pittsburgh are all still around, I can’t give an outfield with Braun the most fun label.) Their rotation offers a bit of intrigue while also being bad enough that most their games should be fun and high-scoring. In the infield, there’s a slugger trying to prove himself after becoming the Babe Ruth of Korean Baseball (Eric Thames); a super utility player hoping to pull off his best Ben Zobrist impression (Travis Shaw); the team’s top prospect (Orlando Arcia); and our man of the hour (hold that thought).

Many of these Brewers looked poised for breakouts. Santana, Broxton, and Arcia all have incredibly high ceilings that will tantalize Milwaukee-ites (Milwaukee-ans?) for years to come.

Villar is different.

Villar flashed that incredible ceiling in 2016. The 6’1” shortstop (who will move to second base this season) was worth 3.9 bWAR in a season in which he hit 19 home runs and stole 62 bases. He did a bit of everything for the club, playing three different infield positions and improving on his already strong walk rate to finish the season with the best on-base percentage on the team (not to mention better than Corey Seager and Mookie Betts).

With players like Santana, Broxton, and Arcia, even if they break out in 2017 they will have to prove themselves once again in 2018 before fans are true believers. Villar is one step further on the ladder. If he repeats his incredible 2016 season in 2017, the Brew Crew will know they have a true gem and future piece to build around.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Austin Meadows

The Pirates are in an interesting spot right now. The club is fresh off a 78-win season, their first losing effort since 2012. The previous three seasons saw the Pirates average 93.3 wins a season, while making the wild card game all three times. After 20 years without playoffs (1993-2012), it was a great time for the franchise. Of course, they lost two of those Wild Card games, and failed to reach the NLCS the other time, but the future was bright. That was before 2016, at least. The team lost 20 games off their 2015 win total and suddenly their superstar (Andrew McCutchen) looked mighty human. After averaging 6.4 WAR/season from 2011-2015, McCutchen was barely replacement level in 2016, coming in at either 0.7 bWAR or -0.7 fWAR depending on which defensive metrics you trust more.

It would be easy to name McCutchen as an x-factor for 2017, and in a sense he is. But if the man pictured above can shoot out of the gates in 2017, it will open lots of possibilities for the club. Meadows, the number nine overall pick of the 2013 draft, is a 21-year-old outfielder who topped out at Triple-A in 2016. He is currently the number six prospect in all of baseball (per Baseball America), and while it might seem he’s not quite destined for the bigs in 2017 (just 37 games at Triple-A in 2016), this is a player who has zoomed up through the Pirates farm system so far. He started 2016 in Short-Season Single-A, moved to Double-A after just five games and finished the year just one stop short of the big leagues, with the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate (Indianapolis Indians).

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If Meadows has success at Triple-A in 2017 (he had a solid .460 slugging percentage in 2016), the Pirates will have a couple options. The most likely option (albeit a somewhat sad option) would be to look for trade offers for McCutchen. The Pirates began shopping their face of the franchise over the winter but no offers were big enough. If Meadows starts off hot, they will have even more reason to move on from McCutchen as they will have yet another young stud outfielder to slot in next to Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte.

The Pirates could also decide to cash in on Meadows. While it might seem unlikely to sell on the cheap, young option (Meadows) rather than the aging star on a big contract (McCutchen), Meadows would fetch a higher return. If the Pirates headed into the trade deadline in contention for a playoff spot, they might look to shore up the rotation by flipping Meadows for Jose Quintana, with David Robertson thrown in for good measure. Prospects always have a bit of risk, so the Pirates might just want to cash in their nice shiny chip while it still has its luster.

Either way, these plans rely on Meadows having a strong 2017 and not slipping from the lofty prospect standing he current maintains.