MLB Top Ten Left-Handed Pitching Prospects For 2017
With the season just around the corner, who are the top 10 left-handed pitching prospects in MLB?
An Introduction
These lists will be coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our MLB contributors at Call To The Pen.
Ben reviewed each MLB organization’s top 10 prospects in November and December, then also reviewed the top 125 prospects in the game in January. Throughout spring training, he’s also been contributing scouting reports on players that are part of his top 25 prospects in the game.
Each slide will feature two players with a brief write up, then one final slide with a prospect who is not in the top 10, but very possibly could find his way into the top 5 with an impressive 2017 campaign due the player’s high upside.
These rankings are based on dozens of conversations with multiple people around the game about different prospects, and certainly each list could be much longer, but for brevity, we’ll stick to 10!
Let’s get started with today’s position group, the best southpaws in the game:
Next: #9, #10
10. Stephen Gonsalves, Minnesota Twins
If you’d see Gonsalves getting off the team bus, you might think he’s a guy who will be pumping in ideal velocity from a starter based on his near-ideal size at 6’5″ and roughly 215-220 pounds.
However, Gonsalves is more a guy who fits the profile of a command/control lefty with a tick extra velocity than the typical guy in that profile.
He works from an interesting arm angle that helps his stuff to play up some, throwing in the low-90s with his fastball, getting good sink on that and his extremely effective change.
While perhaps only his change up would be considered a true plus pitch in grade, he also offers a curve and occasional slider to really keep hitters off base.
More than anything, Gonsalves seems to work off of his ability to put the bat in a spot off of where the hitter expected it to be, leading to poor contact from the hitter. In 2016, this led to a paltry .179 batting average against.
Gonsalves got to AA last season and likely will open in AAA to start 2017, but if he can produce like he did in 2016, he could push for a rotation spot very soon.
9. Justus Sheffield, New York Yankees
The “other” big prospect acquired by the Yankees in the Andrew Miller deal with the Indians, Sheffield was overshadowed in that trade by outfielder Clint Frazier (though they both have overshadowed the quality that the Yankees got in righties Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen as third and fourth parts of the deal).
Sheffield was originally selected with the 31st overall selection in the 2014 draft by the Indians, and the short (5’10”) lefty has had plenty of view he’s had to overcome along the way about whether he’d succeed due to his height and stuff.
Sheffield works with a fastball that sits in the low-90s and can run up to 96 with excellent movement and good sink. He works with a hard slider that really played up in the Yankees system last year to a plus pitch.
His change really could be his strikeout pitch with a crazy amount of arm deception and solid movement when he’s on.
Sheffield has the issue that many shorter pitchers do in his mechanics, as he struggles to stay on top of the ball to get the sink and action he wants on his fastball and slider all the time, and when he doesn’t, he can get hit hard and miss the zone badly.
His pitches are quite tough to square up, and if he can keep that up, he’ll at least have a future in the bullpen as a very good reliever, but I think he’s a certain starter and the type of guy who won’t turn 21 years old until May, so he’s got some growing and filling into his frame still to do.
Sheffield dipped his toe into AA in 2016, and he’ll likely start at the level in 2017, hoping to push his way forward on his command, especially of his potentially-plus change up.
Next: #7, #8
8. Luiz Gohara, Atlanta Braves
When a young pitcher draws C.C. Sabathia comparisons, there are typically two reasons – one, his size, or two, his stuff from the left side. The second comparison is obviously a positive one as C.C. will likely retire as one of the winningest pitchers in the last 20 years, but the first one – well, that can be an issue.
Gohara has drawn those comps the last two years as his weight ballooned from the lower 200s to as much as 270 pounds, reportedly.
Gohara worked hard over the offseason before 2016 to really improve his conditioning to establish his ability to stay healthy and go deeper into games, losing 30 pounds over the offseason and as much as another 40 over the offseason.
He’s currently listed at 210 pounds, and at spring ball, he’s likely roughly 225ish, but he’s not put on bad weight back onto his frame as much as he’s begun adding in positive build to help add muscle to his wide frame.
Gohara was a major story of the Arizona Fall League as he surpassed the triple digit mark in velocity on his fastball with a slider featuring more velocity than any pitcher in the fall league and tremendous break.
Depending on the game you saw Gohara this season, you have different opinions on the change. He did not use the pitch much in the fall league as he was working out of the bullpen and in short stints.
In his Midwest League work, Gohara flashed a plus change up with possibility of even more in the pitch as he got excellent movement on the change, creating another swing and miss pitch, but even more so, he was getting extremely weak contact on the pitch as hitters pounded the change into the ground.
His weight loss helped his ability to maintain his mechanics on the mound, improving his command significantly and allowing Gohara to get much deeper into games.
The Braves acquired Gohara from Seattle over the offseason and will likely move him into the Rome group of pitchers that are moving up to their new high-A affiliate in the Florida State League this year.
7. Brady Aiken, Cleveland Indians
Still sadly more famous for his draft issues after being the third ever #1 overall pick not to sign with his drafting team, Aiken returned from Tommy John in 2016, and only threw 46 1/3 innings.
Those short collection of innings, though unimpressive in “fantasy” numbers flashed exactly what scouts wanted to see from Aiken in his recovery.
Typically, a pitcher in his first year back from TJS experiences his velocity returns bit by bit, and in the second year, command and control do the same.
When a pitcher struggles to regain velocity in that first year, that’s usually a bad sign, and in Aiken’s first work back, he was throwing in the low-90s after working more in the mid-90s in high school with his fastball.
By the end of the season, however, his velocity had returned, and one of his last starts in the New York-Penn League was notable for seeing his curveball back to the present plus and future plus-plus pitch it was before surgery and his change up flashing plus.
Aiken has a great pitcher’s frame at 6’4′ and 205 pounds listed, and he has exhibited fringe plus command as an amateur, so if he can recover even above average command, he could quickly move up this list even further.
The Indians will likely be cautious one more season with Aiken’s innings as he throws in full-season ball for the first time, likely giving him some extra time off as he regains arm strength to be turned loose in 2018.
Next: #6, #5
6. Yohander Mendez, Texas Rangers
Mendez made a jump up three levels of the minor leagues to the majors in 2016, firmly establishing himself among the top lefty prospects in the game.
Mendez looks the part of a dominant starter at 6’5″ and 200 pounds, but he really doesn’t have that sort of a profile on the mound.
Mendez’s best pitch is his change, which is a present plus pitch and flashes plus-plus. He throws his fastball at 90-93, touching 95. He offers a slider and a curve, though both are more average to above-average pitches, not really big-time strikeout offerings.
Mendez’s success in high-A and AA in 2016 was predicated on his filling the zone with elite command, keeping hitters off balance and forcing weak contact.
Mendez struggled with maintaining that level of command/control once he got to AAA and the majors, and while his results in AAA were still excellent, it caught up to him in the major leagues.
Mendez will likely open in AAA in 2017, and the Rangers did acquire quite a bit more depth in starters this offseason, which should allow him to spend his time in AAA until he shows very well in AAA and earns his way to the Rangers.
5. Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
Hader has seemingly bounced all over the place in his time since being drafted in the 19th round of the 2012 draft.
For a guy with his velocity and breaking pitch, it’s surprising that he’s been moved as much as he has, going from Baltimore to Houston and now to Milwaukee.
Hader has a fastball that sits in the upper 90s that can bump against triple digits at the top end. His slider is of the wipeout variety. His mix of the two pitches has many in MLB hearkening back to the way Randy Johnson would work from the left side, especially when you get a glimpse of Hader’s low 3/4 arm angle from the first base side of the rubber.
Hader had absolutely dominant strikeout rates at AA and AAA in 2016, and many have him extremely high in rankings due primarily due to that high-end K-rate, however, he also posted a 5.22 ERA, gave up 5 home runs in 69 innings (after just 1 in 57 innings in AA), and really struggled to repeat his high-effort delivery in AAA, and that is the big risk with Hader.
His change is a pitch that currently sits below average at the least and possibly even a tick lower than that, and his issues with control could lead him to the bullpen, where he would be an absolutely dominant reliever, but that would definitely change his overall value.
Hader is likely to return to AAA to open the season, and if he can find a tick or trigger within his delivery that allows him to find that mechanical consistency he so badly needs, he would immediately be a front line starter candidate.
Next: #4, #3
4. Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
Coming into the 2012 draft, there was a good discussion as to which member of Fried’s high school rotation was the better draft prospect, he or teammate Lucas Giolito.
Giolito was injured and fell in the first round while Fried was selected at #7 overall by the Padres. In 2014, Fried also succumbed to Tommy John, and he was in the midst of that recovery when the Braves acquired him from the Padres.
He was allowed a full recovery from TJS, and his comfort level back on the mound last April was obvious after his time away. He also was able to handle a more increased inning load than most guys coming back from Tommy John in his first year back because he had the extra recovery time.
Fried struggled out of the gate, as would likely be expected for a guy who hadn’t pitched since July of 2014. However, Fried finished the season on a tear.
From June 1 through the end of the regular season for low-A Rome, Fried made 11 starts, throwing 54 2/3 innings, allowing a 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.52% walk rate, and 32.29% strikeout rate.
He then topped that off with two dominant pitching performances in the playoffs to close out both series of the playoffs, closing out the first-round series against Charleston and then dominating Lakewood to clinch the South Atlantic League title. Combined, he threw 14 2/3 innings, allowing 2 runs, 7 hits, 4 walks, and struck out an astounding 24 batters.
Fried has come to spring training showing he was ready to jump up the system now that he’s healthy, and the Braves agree, having already jumped him over high-A and assigned him to AA Mississippi, where he will likely open 2017.
3. Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves
Newcomb was a cold-weather high school player that went to college in the northeast as well, leading to him being fairly raw coming out of college.
The Angels moved Newcomb as part of the deal to acquire Andrelton Simmons from the Braves. Newcomb had ridiculous raw stuff, but the Angels had allowed Newcomb to work primarily as a thrower in his first two years rather than really working on his pitchability.
Atlanta went about immediately working on Newcomb as a complete pitcher in 2016, and his results on the season were not statistically pretty as a result of the changes he was making throughout the season.
The Braves worked on Newcomb’s mechanics in AA Mississippi to open the season, and when he showed he could handle the adjusted mechanics, he moved to working on his approach on the mound, taking a tick off of the top end of his fastball to allow more movement and work on more command.
You really saw Newcomb visibly change his comfort level on the mound in his last start of July, and from that start forward, a total of 7 starts, he had a 2.04 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.64% walk rate, and 31.48% strikeout rate.
At 6’5″ and 250+ pounds, Newcomb is a sizable man on the mound, yet he shows impressive athleticism off the mound after balls. He has shown the ability to repeat his mechanics at his size, which is often a challenge.
Newcomb’s struggle at this time is now really between his ears. He’s struggled with runners on base, and that’s a symptom of what was visible in watching him. He struggled with his control and attempting to “groove” pitches once a guy got on base. You can also see this as he allowed all 4 home runs that he allowed in 2016 with a runner on base.
Many see the stats and worry on Newcomb’s future, and that’s legit, but the Braves are very confident that they’ve found what they needed to in order to help Newcomb become an elite pitcher, and it’s up to him to keep moving forward with that instruction in AAA in 2017 now.
Next: #2, #1
2. Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds
Garrett split his time between the Reds and college basketball until 2014, so he was quite raw when he first began pitching exclusively.
Garrett made significant progress with his maturity and pitchability in 2016, allowing him to move to the front of this list and compete for a rotation spot in Cincinnati.
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He’s got a very athletic 6’5″ frame, as you’d likely expect from a former college basketball player, but he uses that athleticism well on the mound, helping him to repeat his delivery and play tremendous defense off the mound.
Garrett’s stuff has always been good, but it’s taken steps to reaching the projections he had when he entered the Reds system as a raw thrower in the last couple of years.
He now works with a fastball that works in the 92-96 range and can touch up to 97-98 in short bursts. He has a sharp slider with seemingly two levels of bite to the pitch, getting a late break just as it hits the plate on top of earlier break.
Garrett saw his change up and his control play up to fringe-plus in 2016 as he really utilized his athleticism to create a deceptive arm angle on the change and repeat that delivery consistently.
Garrett is expected to open the season in the Reds rotation.
1. Kolby Allard, Atlanta Braves
Teams were scared away by a back injury from Allard in the 2015 draft, but if the draft were re-done just one year later, it’s pretty certain that Allard would be a guy who would end up in the top 5 picks overall – and that’s with multiple members of the draft class having already reached the major leagues or establishing themselves as top 25 prospects!
Allard threw just six innings after being drafted in 2015 and then had a back procedure in the offseason. The Braves had Allard take his time in extended spring, building up arm strength before sending him to Rome.
He initially struggled in low-A, but after going back to extended and opening with the Danville team in the advanced rookie level Appalachian League, Allard was a different pitcher on the mound.
He works with a fastball that works in the low-90s and can touch 96 with excellent life late on the pitch in cutter-like fashion. He also has a plus curve that could certainly be graded at plus plus by some scouts, and his change played as a plus pitch as well throughotu the year.
What turned the corner for Allard on the season was his location. When he came up to Rome the first time, he struggled with commanding the ball, seeming to aim the ball into the zone. His second return to Rome showed a different pitcher, one willing to throw a curve that may tumble out of the zone, but 9 times out of 10 was going to induce a weak swing or swing and miss.
Allard showed that change in his pitching when he came out without his best stuff in a playoff start in the first round against Charleston. Without strikeout stuff on the day, Allard showed excellent mound maturity, going 6 shutout innings on 3 hits and 2 walks and just one strikeout.
He then gave an indication of just how dominant he could be in the championship series, when he went 6 shutout innings, allowing 6 hits and a walk, striking out 9 batters against Lakeland.
Next: Two To Watch
Adrian Morejon, San Diego Padres
The stories already coming out of spring training about Morejon are getting to the point of legend.
He was arguably one of the most well-regarded teenage pitchers to come out of Cuba, having been well known through Cuban national teams since before he was even a teenager.
The Padres gave the lefty $11M, which tells you just what was thought of Morejon as they gave more money than nearly anyone had received as an international pitcher previously.
Morejon’s polish on the mound belies his age, just 18 at the end of February. He has a fastball that is a plus pitch, sitting in the 92-94 range and touching 96-98 in short bursts.
His offspeed stuff is where he shows his maturity in pitching already at just 18 as he offers two distinct change ups, one a knuckle-change, and the second a more traditional change up. Both are above-average to plus pitches.
His best offspeed offering is his curve, a pitch he throws with tremendous depth but also has excellent command of within the zone, making the pitch a present plus pitch, but likely a double plus pitch going forward.
Morejon has not been assigned out of minor league camp yet, and it’s likely that the Padres will have him stay in extended spring until short-season leagues open, but it would not surprise if he went directly to low-A from extended spring, and with his mound maturity, he could move very quickly through the system if the Padres allow him to.
Jason Groome, Boston Red Sox
Coming into the draft season, Groome was MLB Pipeline’s top rated overall draft prospect, and on many boards, he was the top-rated pitcher available in the 2016 MLB draft.
On pure “stuff”, it’s easy to understand why as Groome is left-handed, sits in the low-90s with his fastball and can touch 97 with a plus-plus curve and a change that had effective sink, if not used much as an amateur.
However, Groome had some issues with eligibility in the spring that weren’t entirely his fault, but the way he responded to those issues did turn a number of teams off of him, as multiple teams early in the draft had taken him off of their board for the first round entirely.
Groome fell all the way to the Red Sox at #12, and he only tossed 6 2/3 innings in the Boston system before resting for the fall.
At 6’6″ and 220 pounds already, he has a mature frame for a guy just 18 years old, leaving not a lot of upside to him physically, but what is already there is certainly impressive.
Groome could open 2017 in low-A for Boston this season, and his pitching “stuff” could overcome the off-field stuff
Next: Top Ten Right-Handed Prospects
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