New York Yankees 2017 Team Preview: Additions, Subtractions, Outlook

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Most view the Yankees as still a year or two away from legitimate contention, but could their youth movement make an improbable playoff push in 2017?

By now, the New York Yankees‘ 2016 trade deadline strategy has been analyzed and dissected countless times over. For the first time since the late-90s dynasty days, the Yanks approached midseason as sellers, unloading several key players in exchange for prospects. Bullpen dynamos Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller, along with veteran slugger Carlos Beltran, landed a crop of young talent headlined by Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier, among others.

General manager Brian Cashman continued the process during the offseason, trading catcher Brian McCann to the Astros for a pair of minor league pitchers. While the Yankees’ farm system has been revitalized by these moves, it would be inaccurate to call this an all-out rebuild. A handful of veterans like Brett Gardner are still here, and the club also added a couple of known commodities on one-year deals in an effort to field a competitive lineup in 2017.

The goal is clear: build for the future while remaining a factor in the present. That plan rarely works out for franchises, but the Yanks have experienced surprising success trying to have it both ways. Even after last July’s sell-off, they remained in the playoff picture until the final month and finished over .500 for the 24th consecutive year.

As a rule, the Yankees will always claim that the World Series is their objective heading into a new season, but management would probably be satisfied with a similar scenario as last year. They’ll hope the young players already on the roster – led by last season’s late-summer sensation Gary Sanchez – will provide a jolt, while some of the vets bounce back from lackluster campaigns. If things break right, perhaps they can sneak in with a postseason spot.

To get a better sense of the Bronx Bombers’ chances in 2017, let’s review the prominent offseason personnel moves and examine how the team will look this year.

Next: Additions

Key Offseason Additions

The Yankees made their big splash by bringing Aroldis Chapman back five months after trading him to the Cubs. The flamethrowing closer signed a five-year, $86 million deal, the largest ever for a relief pitcher. Some might question whether the team needed to spend big on an elite closer at this point in their retooling, but Chapman is one of the best at what he does and the Yanks will look forward to seeing those 105-mph fastballs again.

Chapman converted 20 of 21 save chances in New York last year with a 2.01 ERA and 12.6 K/9 rate. Aside from that Game 7 hiccup in the Fall Classic, he was even better for the Cubs. Regardless of whether he’ll make a real difference to the club’s ultimate fate in 2017, the Yankees won’t have to worry much about the ninth inning this year and for the foreseeable future.

With Alex Rodriguez out of the picture, the Yanks aimed to boost their production out of the DH spot with Matt Holliday. He’s another addition that might not make total sense on paper, but as a one-year stopgap he could prove valuable to the team’s contention chances. The 13-year veteran was limited to 110 games last year for the Cardinals with a broken thumb, and his slash line sagged below its usual levels at .246/.322/.461.

He did manage to hit 20 home runs for the 10th time in the last 11 seasons, and the Yankees were encouraged by his exit velocity on batted balls in play. At an average of 94.7 mph, only Nelson Cruz (95.9) and Giancarlo Stanton (95.1) performed better by that metric in 2016. Now 37 years old, Holliday’s glory days are behind him, but the Yanks are betting that if he stays healthy he’ll provide some pop and leadership in an increasingly young lineup.

Chris Carter was an unexpected last-minute signing right before Spring Training. He tied for the NL lead with 41 homers last season, but his well-documented problem with strikeouts (career 33 percent K-rate) kept teams at bay. For one year at just $3.5 million, the Yanks thought him a decent insurance policy for youngster Greg Bird at first base.

Of course, Bird has been on an absolute tear this spring (7 HR) as Carter flails (.125 BA). Barring injury or a real rough patch for Bird, it’s hard to see Carter getting much playing time. And given the Yankees’ hopes for Bird and the rest of their young core, that’s frankly a good thing.

The club inked former Mets infielder Ruben Tejada and left-hander Jon Niese to minors deals. Tejada might have seen a role in the wake of shortstop Didi Gregorius‘ recent injury, but a poor spring with the glove ticketed him to minor league camp. Niese was always a long shot for a place in the bullpen, and the Yanks released him. However, he signed another minor league pact days later to continue working on building his arm strength.

Both names are worth keeping in mind, but don’t expect either to impact the big league club this year.

Next: Subtractions

Key Offseason Subtractions

The Yankees said goodbye to Brian McCann after three campaigns in the Bronx, shipping the seasoned backstop to Houston. Sanchez’s meteoric rise made the move all but inevitable. McCann’s bat never quite lived up to expectations for the Yanks, as he slashed a combined .235/.313/.418 (99 OPS+) after hitting .277/.350/.473 (117 OPS+) in Atlanta. That kind of offensive decline certainly isn’t unprecedented in a catcher advancing into his 30s. The team will miss his leadership and pitch-framing ability behind the plate, skills which should benefit an ambitious young Astros squad.

Mark Teixeira called it a career after 14 major league seasons. Despite a hot start to his Yankees tenure in 2009, injuries derailed him in recent years. He was on the road to a comeback (and maybe even some MVP recognition) in 2015, producing a .906 OPS and 31 homers before a shin fracture suffered in August cut his season short.

Unfortunately, he didn’t pick up where he left off in 2016. Teixeira slashed a paltry .204/.292/.362 through 116 games while continuing to battle neck and knee ailments. With his contract ending, he saw the writing on the wall and elected to walk away after a fine career. Greg Bird has a tough act to follow at first base, particularly in terms of defense, but this spring’s impressive display suggests he’s up for the challenge.

Alex Rodriguez retired last August, but he’s worth a mention here. Like Teixeira, a rejuvenated 2015 proved to be fool’s gold for A-Rod. He slashed just .200/.247/.351 in 65 games while clogging up the DH spot for more useful players. A-Rod is still on the Yankees’ payroll this year, but even an aging Matt Holliday (and whatever other names receive time at DH) shouldn’t have trouble outproducing his 2016 numbers.

After a mercurial two-year stint in New York, Nathan Eovaldi was released in November and later scooped up by the Rays. He’ll miss the entire 2017 campaign after undergoing a second Tommy John surgery. The Yanks had high hopes for the hard-throwing Eovaldi, but he never really panned out (4.45 ERA in 279 IP). The club will look for the options it currently has rattling around in the middle and back-end of the rotation to do better.

Next: Outlook

2017 Outlook

The Yankees generated an 84-78 mark last season, but their Pythagorean record (informed by a -22 run differential) claims they should have been five games worse at 79-83. They came within five games of a Wild Card berth, but their ability to stay afloat late in the year was due in large part to Gary Sanchez’s torrid stretch in which he mashed 20 homers in 53 games.

The Yanks weren’t that impressive on either side of the ball, placing 22nd in the league in runs scored (680) and 15th in ERA (4.16). Do they stand to improve much in either regard this season?

The offense will largely depend on just how good Sanchez and Bird can be at this early juncture in their careers. Sanchez’s eleventh-hour Rookie of the Year charge and Bird’s red-hot spring have a lot of fans with stars in their eyes, but it’s important to remember that all young players struggle at times. Remember, after hitting .389 in August, Sanchez dipped to .225 in September. Nevertheless, even with the potential growing pains, Bird and Sanchez should provide much more than A-Rod and Teixeira did in 2016.

For the Yankees, 2017 feels more like the prelude to better days ahead.

Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury will be counted on for bounce-back seasons. That might be a bit optimistic as both will turn 34 this year, but they need to contribute more than the .713 and .703 OPS marks they offered in 2016, respectively. And while they’ve each lost a step or two, they can still likely do better than a combined 36 stolen bases, especially if the Yankees want to manufacture runs more effectively.

Right field will also be somewhat of a wild card. Though there was some recent buzz that Aaron Hicks might actually get the job, the Yanks made the right choice in naming Aaron Judge the starter. The big man has big power but has struggled with plate discipline, as evidenced by his 44 percent strikeout rate in 27 games with the club last year. He’s had a solid spring and will try to keep the momentum going into the regular season.

Didi Gregorius’ injury during the World Baseball Classic was a tough blow after the shortstop belted a career-high 20 home runs last season. Ronald Torreyes should be an adequate fill-in, but if Didi’s tentative May return is delayed for whatever reason, his absence will be felt more and more.

The starting rotation is arguably the biggest question mark for the Yankees in 2017. Masahiro Tanaka (who can opt out of his deal after the season) was a Cy Young dark horse last year, and the Yanks will hope he can stay healthy again and turn in another ace-like campaign. But after him, the picture is quite murky.

CC Sabathia defied his doubters by producing a respectable 3.91 ERA over 30 outings last season, but can the 36-year-old lefty do it again? Will the Yankees ever know exactly what they’re getting when Michael Pineda steps on the mound? The final two spots in the rotation will be filled from among Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Chad Green and Bryan Mitchell. Each has flashed promise, but who knows what you’ll get from them over the course of a full year.

More from Call to the Pen

With Chapman back in tow, the Yanks will be depending on their bullpen to once again pick up the slack from a suspect starting staff. Offseason arbitration battle aside, Dellin Betances should continue to thrive in a setup role, though the club will aim to conserve him a bit more to avoid a late-season burnout. And while he’s no Andrew Miller, Tyler Clippard performed well after his trade from Arizona last year and should form something of a lesser “big three” with his fellow bullpen stars.

So what does it all add up to? Fangraphs’ Depth Charts projects the Yankees at an even 81-81 this season. Baseball Prospectus estimates an 82-80 finish. Considering all the questions and variables surrounding this team, that seems fair. Around 85 victories feels like the high-water mark, and that’s if most things go right. The Red Sox are the clear front-runners in the AL East, and the Blue Jays and Orioles also appear to have a leg up on the Yanks at the moment.

Even if the lineup, fueled by strong years from the likes of Sanchez and Bird, outperforms last year’s version, the rotation is simply too ambiguous to trust right now. One or two of the young arms that fill the back-end of the group will need to step up to improve the team’s outlook. The bullpen should be among the game’s best, but how many leads will they be inheriting?

If the Yanks are in the thick of the playoff race come July, they could boost their chances via trade. (Those Jose Quintana rumors haven’t gone away yet.) On the other hand, if they again see themselves slipping from contention, expect them to acquire more prospect talent by shopping vets like Gardner, Clippard and Chase Headley.

Next: Top 30 First Basemen Entering 2017

For the Yankees, 2017 feels more like the prelude to better days ahead. They should have a puncher’s chance this year, but the real fun is a bit further down the road.

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