Cleveland Indians: 2017 Expectations for Michael Brantley

Michael Brantley will be on the Cleveland Indians roster that opens the 2017 season next week, but what will we see from the outfielder after missing nearly all of last year?

Michael Brantley wasn’t part of the Cleveland Indians‘ playoff run last year; in fact, the outfielder made only 11 appearances in 2016 as he battled a persistent shoulder injury. So unless you’re plugged into everything Tribe, you’re forgiven if he happened to slip your mind. However, if things go according to plan, fans shouldn’t have to wait long for a refresher on what Brantley can do on a baseball field.

Indians manager Terry Francona confirmed that Brantley will be on the team’s Opening Day roster, according to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. There was some question as to whether that would be the case, as Brantley has seen limited playing time this spring as he continues to recover from a pair of shoulder surgeries.

Despite the relatively sample size, Brantley has more or less looked like his old self in Spring Training. In 26 at-bats, he has slashed .385/.429/.692 with two home runs, two doubles and five runs batted in. If he remains healthy (admittedly a big “if”), can we expect the former All-Star to pick up where he left off before the injuries derailed him?

Even when he was healthy and at the top of his game, Brantley was one of the league’s more overlooked stars. By 2014 he had already played parts of five big league seasons, but it wasn’t until that year that he truly broke out. Brantley hit .327/.385/.506 with 20 homers, 45 doubles, 97 RBI and 23 steals in 156 games. He earned an All-Star Game appearance and Silver Slugger Award while finishing third in AL MVP voting behind winner Mike Trout and Victor Martinez.

While he took a modest step back in 2015, Brantley proved that the previous campaign was no fluke. He posted a .310/.379/.480 slash, 15 home runs, an MLB-leading 45 doubles, 84 RBI and 15 stolen bases over 137 contests. After producing 6.3 bWAR over his first five seasons, Brantley was worth 10.2 in the next two.

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Unfortunately, that’s when the trouble started. Brantley underwent shoulder surgery in November of 2015, a procedure initially estimated to keep him out five-to-six months. Of course, he was never quite ready to come back last season and was finally shut down in August when he required a second surgery.

The Indians are cautiously optimistic that Brantley is now ready to return to the lineup for good. Perhaps more important than the promising spring numbers is the fact that he played in three consecutive games this week, seeming to hold up well under the increasing workload. But should the Tribe anticipate the return of vintage Brantley?

Due to turn 30 in May, Brantley is by no means over the hill, but he could be nearing decline territory even if he wasn’t trying to fend off a serious health issue. He posted BABIPs of .333 and .318 in 2014 and 2015, respectively. He averaged a more conventional .297 mark over the previous four seasons. If Brantley experiences some regression in that regard, another .300+ batting average isn’t necessarily guaranteed.

Cleveland is also going to continue taking it easy with Brantley, not only early but likely throughout the season. That could curb some of his production, although for a sensible reason. This year might be more about proving health and getting re-acclimated rather than doing any heavy lifting.

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The good thing is that the Indians did pretty darn well in 2016 even without Brantley. Their offense only got stronger with the offseason addition of Edwin Encarnacion, and the possibility of a rejuvenated Brantley is more like icing on the cake rather than a dire need.

However, some early contributions would be appreciated in the absences of Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall. And come playoff time, Brantley could be a difference-maker going up against a loaded team like the Red Sox.

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