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Is the 300-game Winner Actually Dead? Five Pitchers with a Chance at 300

By Jim Turvey

Apr 15, 2017; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher CC Sabathia tips hat to to fans after being taked out of the game against the St. Louis Cardinals during the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 15, 2017; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher CC Sabathia tips hat to to fans after being taked out of the game against the St. Louis Cardinals during the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 18, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher CC Sabathia (52) pitches during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 18, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher CC Sabathia (52) pitches during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports /

5 C.C. Sabathia

The man with whom we started this article gets a spot in the top five. The fact that we called his chance at 300 a “relative long shot” not 500 words ago shows that this list is filled with question marks. There is some reason to have faith with Sabathia, though.

First, as noted above, he shot out 200 wins faster than many of the eventual 300-game winners. He has also undergone a change in pitching profile that came about around the start of the 2015 season. Take a look at the percent of soft contact he induced, per season, since 2013:

2013 – 16.1%, 2014 – 16.3%, 2015 – 16.5%, 2016 – 24.0%, 2017 – 23.6%

Now take a look at his ERAs over that same time:

2013 – 4.78, 2014 – 5.28, 2015 – 4.73, 2016 – 3.91, 2017 – 1.47

Sabathia has seen great improvements over the past 13 months in suppressing hard contact, and it has resulted in a lot more success on the mound. Now that run suppression resulted in only nine wins in 2016, but Sabathia already has two wins in three starts in 2017, and if he can rack up three to four more seasons of 13-ish wins while still in his 30s, that would leave him within spitting distance of 300 as he moved into his 40s.

Sabathia will be a free agent after this season, and if he can maintain his solid run suppression numbers throughout the year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a three-to-four-year deal giving him that chance. If Sabathia ends 2021 as a 40-year-old with 265 wins, do you think he’d go for 300 somewhere? There are always teams willing to take on veteran pitchers for cheap, see: Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey in Atlanta.

I would still agree that Sabathia is a relative long shot for 300 wins, but it’s certainly not out of the question for the big lefty.

Percent chance for 300: 15%

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