2 Clayton Kershaw
Now we get to the real contenders. These next two pitchers have very legitimate chances at 300 wins, even though both are still quite a ways off.
Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball right now, full stop. He has done the unthinkable over the past decade, lowering his career ERA each and every season. That’s no small feat considering his career ERA has been below 3.00 ever since 2011. Over the past six full seasons (plus the nub of the 2017 season), he has a 2.07 ERA, which translates to a 178 ERA+.
The 29-year-old has finished in the top five of the Cy Young vote each of the past six seasons, and he somehow seems to only be getting better with time. Last season was his lowest-ever ERA and we would have broken the single-season strikeout-to-walk ratio if he had qualified for the pitching title. (So far in 2017, he has 22 strikeouts and just one walk. Twenty-two! And one!)
But that previous note right there is the only reason he’s not number one on this list. Kershaw has missed a bit over time over the years, missing six starts in 2014 and 12 starts in 2016. That might not seem like much, but keep in mind that our man Randy Johnson averaged 30 starts a season for his 17-year main prime. Kershaw isn’t far behind if we average his last six seasons, but over the past three seasons has just averaged 27. That three-start difference over an extended period of time can be the difference, and in a chase that is already going to be a monumental task, every start matters.
That being said, there’s still a lot to love with Kershaw’s chances at 300. In an era of disappearing 20-game winners, he has reached that plateau twice; Johnson only got there three times total in his career. The Dodgers are going to be contenders for the foreseeable future, and Kershaw is going to be a Dodger for the foreseeable future thanks to his massive 7-year, $215 million dollar contract that kicked in before the 2015 season. Even when his contract is up after 2020, it’s nearly impossible to imagine the Dodgers not coughing up the dough to keep their main man around, especially considering some of the payrolls they have floated in the past.
Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball to watch right now, hands down. We don’t need a potential chase for 300 wins to need to tune in, but one day we may see such a chase occur.
Percent chance for 300: 33%