Houston Astros: Dallas Keuchel Returning to Ace Form

The Houston Astros are off to a quick start with the most wins in the American League. That’s because their ace Keuchel has returned to form.

The Houston Astros‘ Dallas Keuchel is on fire.

It seems like the 2015 Cy Young Award winner is back on track after a down season. Surprisingly, not a lot has changed in his repertoire, he’s simply executing more soundly than last season.

Keuchel truly arrived on the scene in 2014. The then 26-year-old southpaw had a breakout season, going 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He proved he was a workhorse, reaching 200 innings and throwing five complete games, one being a shutout.

It all came together in 2015. Keuchel exploded for a league-best 20 wins, also leading the league in WHIP at 1.017. He set a career-high in strikeouts-per-nine (8.38) and a career-low in walks-per-nine (1.98). The lefty also hurled a career-best 232 innings, culminating in a surprise playoff run for the Houston Astros and the club’s first Cy Young winner since Roger Clemens.

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Those innings may have caught up to him last year. He dealt with injury and a bit of a fall-off, going just 168 innings. He was infinitely better in a limited second half, but his overall numbers were a disappointment.

There wasn’t a major drop-off in velocity last season. Keuchel has never been a flamethrower; his four-seamer is more of an 89 to 90 mile-per-hour offering and his cutter is in the 87 to 88 range. Keuchel’s best weapon has been his sinker, and that’s where some of the problems may have arisen.

Keuchel’s sinker (and slider that features some sink) is the cliched worm-killer. He strands runners behind high ground ball rates. Last season were both career-lows, as a 56.7 percent ground ball rate stranded just 68.4 percent of his runners. If you compare that to his two seasons prior, he had nearly a 62 percent ground ball rate stranding nearly 78 percent of his runners. Those differences are monumental.

Now Houston’s ace is back to his old self. His five-pitch arsenal is working at the same velocity and the sink has returned the ground balls. Keuchel’s ERA of 0.96 is awe-inspiring, but a 3.03 FIP while stranding 99 percent of his runners suggests that won’t last. Still, it can be expected to be a happy medium, returning Keuchel to his mid-to-high 2.00s ERA.

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The Houston Astros have talent by the truck load. Many projected them (including yours truly) as a World Series contender. All they needed was the return of their ace.

It certainly seems like Keuchel is back on track.