Baltimore Orioles: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not at Camden Yards

The Baltimore Orioles are in first place in the American League East. Some on the team are playing as expected. There have also been some surprising liabilities.

As players began to close out the spring and get ready for the upcoming season, analysts and writers all over the nation have already offered their most educated guesses as to how the year will unfold. April is fun not only because baseball is back, but because it has a way of setting up a player like no other month could. We as fans enjoy watching players hit the ground running. We also like to see our rivals’ core players tumble like Black Tuesday.

Manny Machado and Welington Castillo are major factors for the Baltimore Orioles. The O’s are at the front of their division despite opposing performances. The organization has made a habit in recent years of taking preseason predictions and turning them into foolish nonsense by September. If you haven’t kept track over the last five seasons, here’s a summary.

Writers and analysts took a similar view on the Birds. The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox have been handed the American East division on behalf of them. The season is only two and a half weeks old, yet the Orioles are in the mix.

So, who’s hot?

Welington Castillo has stepped in beautifully for the dearly departed Matt Wieters. Baltimore traded defense for offense in this backstop switch. This move has paid off so far. Castillo is an above-average bat by catcher standards. He owns a career .256/.318/.416 slash, offering home run totals in the mid-to-high teens. The 30-year-old has started the year on a tear in comparison to his track record.

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Castillo is hitting .326/.341/.419 right now. Take a look at his batted ball profile over at FanGraphs. His ground ball rate is nearly 14 percent lower than last season. He’s pulling less and currently hitting the ball up the middle at a higher rate than he’s done in his four full seasons. This explains his surge in average. He’s in for a good year if he can keep a similar trend going and avoid too much regression.

Welington Castillo wasn’t supposed to be the driving force in the Baltimore Orioles lineup. He’s supposed to be a great presence in the latter half of the batting order. A team can score some serious runs when that sort of production comes from their sixth hitter. It makes the job easier for those around him. The only one who can’t find any sort of break is Manny Machado.

Who’s Not?

Machado is not. The star third baseman was just 9-for-51 through 14 games leading up to his first two-hit game of the season. A .176 average was certainly not what Machado was hoping to find in his Cracker Jack box. Walking at a 12.7 percent rate is encouraging. What’s more encouraging is the 24-year-old (shocking, right?) has a history of slow starts.

Remember how April has a way of setting up a player? Manny Machado is the perfect example. He may not have the stats to show it, but he’s hitting the ball hard with a 45.9 percent hard contact rate. He’s also hitting A LOT of fly balls at 51.4 percent. You can take that a few different ways. He could be touching the warning track with every other contact, or he could be hitting it a mile up and only 90 feet to the middle.

Whatever way the numbers may look, we know April never has our best interests in mind initially, and the first month eventually smooths out. For that, look at Machado’s 2015. He was hitting .167 on April 21. The second and third home run of the season came two days later and Machado never looked back. That season’s performance was worth 6.8 Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs.

Next: O's Trey Mancini Off to Hot Start

A fair guess is April 23 when Manny Machado’s hard contact will translate to serious extra-base damage. A hot Machado will bring a Baltimore Orioles offense from 20th in runs scored to somewhere much more comforting.