MLB Teams Bucking League-Wide Trends
By Jim Turvey
Tampa Bay Rays – We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Strikeouts
The league-wide strikeout rate has increased in each of the past 13 seasons. Over that time, the league-wide ERA has gone from 4.32 to 3.91. While the decrease in ERA has not been a perfect trend downwards (last season saw a bounce-back to a 4.19 ERA), there is a belief in baseball right now that the best thing a pitcher can do for himself is get strikeouts. If you are a pitcher for the Blue Jays you might rely on getting pop ups, and if you’re CC Sabathia you might rely on getting soft contact, but the safest way to get an out is to get the strikeout and remove fielders from the equation all together.
As such, it’s strange to see the Rays sporting a mid-2000s-esque 6.86 strikeout per nine rate so far in 2017. The Rays are the only team in baseball striking out less than seven batters per nine innings this season, a “feat” no team achieved in 2016. What’s most interesting about the 2017 Rays allergy to strikeouts is that the team finished eighth in the league in strikeout rate in 2016, coming in at a far more modern 8.56 strikeouts per nine.
The biggest culprit this season has been the bullpen. While the rotation averages a run-of-the-mill 7.47 K/9 (17th in MLB), the bullpen is a throwback, totaling just 5.88 K/9. The second-lowest K/9 among relievers this season belongs to the Pirates at 7.35 K/9 – that’s a massive gap.
It is among relievers where strikeout rates have truly shot through the roof in recent seasons, as teams load up on big arms who can give it their all for a few batters before moving on to the next big arm to do the same. The Rays have veered away from that model in 2017, with not a single reliever averaging more than a strikeout an inning.
Right now the Rays bullpen ERA (3.74) ranks right in the middle of the pack (16th in MLB), but they appear to be getting a bit lucky on their opponent BABIP and home run rate. Bullpen sample sizes are always small, especially this early in the season, so it will be interesting to see if the Rays keep up this trend and relative success.