Apr 25, 2017; San Francisco, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder Cody Bellinger (35) catches the ball against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers prospect Cody Bellinger got the call up to the majors and made his debut Tuesday night. What should we expect?
Player Profile
The Los Angeles Dodgers selected Cody Bellinger in the fourth round of the 2013 draft out of high school in Arizona. Bellinger has baseball roots, with father Clay Bellinger being a member of two World Series champion Yankee teams at the end of the 1990s and beginning of the 2000s.
A high make up guy, Bellinger was projectable when he was drafted at 6’4″ and just 180 pounds. He had a solid arm off the mound as well, and some thought he could be an outfielder or first baseman.
The Dodgers focused his minor league time at first base, as he played first base entirely in his 2013 debut in the Arizona Rookie League, where he hit .210/.340/.358 with a 15.9 percent walk rate and 23.59 percent strikeout rate.
He opened with the advanced rookie league team in Ogden in 2014 and fought through an injury, but put up big numbers, hitting .312/.352/.474 on the season with three home runs, six triples and eight stolen bases along with a 6.44 percent walk rate and 17.17 percent strikeout rate.
Bellinger showed enough in 2014 to jump all the way to high-A, and he put up monster numbers in the California League with Rancho Cucamonga, hitting .264/.336/.538 with 33 doubles, 30 home runs and 10 stolen bases. The biggest concern in Bellinger’s stat line was his 150 strikeouts in 544 plate appearances, leading to a 27.57 percent strikeout rate against a 9.56 percent walk rate.
Bellinger made his first list after that big season, but only on the Baseball America prospect list, ranking #54 overall.
He went about proving himself worthy of national attention in the 2016 season, spending most of the season with AA Tulsa before a three-game finish with AAA Oklahoma City and a tour through the Arizona Fall League.
On the regular season, he combined to hit .271/.365/.507 with 26 home runs and eight stolen bases, and the biggest improvement was his 60/94 BB/K rate over 477 plate appearances for a 12.58 percent walk rate and a 19.71 percent strikeout rate.
His time in the Arizona Fall League was quite impressive as well, as he slashed .314/.424/.557 with three home runs over 85 plate appearances with a 16.47 percent walk rate and 21.18 percent strikeout rate.
His big season in the high minors and AFL led to his ranking skyrocketing. Baseball America had Bellinger #7 overall, MLB Pipeline had him #13 and Baseball Prospectus had him #26.
I had Bellinger ranked #23 overall in my preseason top 125 list, and if there’s one player in the top 50 I would have bumped higher after receiving more reports ahead of spring training (my list came out the first week of January, and most national lists came out a month or more later.
Bellinger certainly has lived up to that high ranking thus far in AAA, hitting .343/.429/.627 with four doubles, five home runs and seven stolen bases in 77 plate appearances along with a 11.69 percent walk rate and 28.57 percent strikeout rate to earn his call up.
Next: Bellinger's scouting report
Scouting Report
Size/Build
Bellinger is listed at 6’4″ and 210 pounds, and he’s actually leaned down some this winter to get to where that’s probably an accurate weight. I would have pegged him for 220-230 in 2016, but he’s leaned down this season, and the results have been obvious.
Hitting
Contact (55) – Bellinger approaches each at bat from an open stance, with his right leg back as the pitch is released, coming to a power position with his feet as his swing starts.
Bellinger’s load is short, but he does load low with an uppercut finish to his swing, which generates plenty of power. This has led to some swing and miss and holes that pitchers exploit initially at a new level, but Bellinger has extremely high baseball intelligence, and he has shown the ability to adjust quickly.
While I’m not sure that there’s a consistent .300 hitter in his swing, he has the ability to hit for high average when he’s really locked in.
Power (65) – It’s hard not to put a pure plus-plus grade on this tool with Bellinger. He adjusted his swing to the more pronounced upper cut swing after the 2014 season, and the power results were immediate.
There are few who create the type of backspin on the ball that Bellinger does, which can be a blessing and a curse. When the swing path stays pure uppercut, that can be an issue. Bellinger has done an excellent job of keeping his uppercut finish while adjusting his load position to focus for a more line drive approach in certain conditions, and that has allowed him to drive the ball in all conditions, something many guys with his swing struggle with.
Eye (60) – Bellinger’s baseball instincts are most evident in the adjustments he makes in his approach at the plate. Bellinger does very well with zone recognition, though he struggled at times at a new level with pitch recognition as he would see higher quality movement at each level than the previous level.
He does adjust quickly, however, and that is evident as he drops his strikeout rate throughout the season at a new level.
Speed (55) – Bellinger was probably more of a 50-grade runner in the offseason, a guy who used baseball smarts to steal bases well, but didn’t have tremendous speed to note. He’d stolen 80 percent of bases attempted due to that level of baseball smarts before 2017.
After an offseason of trimming down what little there was to lean off of his frame, Bellinger has really shown the ability to maximize his speed. He does take long strides, understandable at his height, so he’s not a guy that you’d expect to be a big base stealer in the major leagues, but his instincts have allowed him to be among the leaders in the Pacific Coast League early this season with seven steals without a caught stealing thus far.
Defense (60) – In the limited views I’ve had of Bellinger in the outfield, I’ve seen excellent used of his long legs to range for the ball, but his instincts off the bat are still a work in progress.
Bellinger at first base, however, would be a true 70-grade defender, which is a crazy number to put on a first baseman, but his range, instincts, and ability to stretch and catch the ball is incredibly impressive at first base. Were he to move back to the position eventually, he’d be a legit Platinum Glove contender as a first baseman.
Arm (60) – Bellinger does have a plus arm, touching 90 MPH off the mound in high school. What I have been very impressed with from Bellinger at first and the outfield is his accuracy. He’s already shown the ability to position himself on catches to maximize his throws after a catch. His natural arm strength will be able to read more as he gets more time in the outfield.
MLB Player Comp
The uppercut nature of his swing, his physical stature, and his mental strength in adapting his game reminds me strongly of Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman.
They come to their swing from different stances, as Freeman is more coiled in his stance before unleashing his swing and Bellinger is more upright and open in his stance.
Both men, however, can put a hurt on the ball when they tag it, and I do think it will be a thing where Bellinger may have a year or two of rougher strikeout numbers at the big league level as he adjusts to the league, but I’d expect that K rate to settle in around 20-ish percent.
Freeman had a similar adjustment at each level he reached in the minors and in the majors, with his walk rate being what adjusted, dipping to single digits early in his MLB career and reaching nearly 20 percent in the early season in 2017 after being consistently 12 percent.
With his call up, Bellinger will get his opportunity to show the Dodgers that he can handle an every day lineup spot. He has the offensive tools to do such, and his outfield ability should pick up with his excellent baseball smarts.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Bellinger is moved back to first base when Adrian Gonzalez‘s contract is up after the 2018 season simply due to his elite defense at that position along with his bat certainly fitting the position.
