MLB Free Agency: Five pending free agents whose stock is down
As players look to improve their stock in MLB Free Agency, whose free agent stock has taken a hit so far this season?
Sure it’s early in the 2017 MLB season. Players are still trying to find their way. Heck, the New York Mets haven’t played a single game outside their division yet. You can’t win a pennant in April and May, but you can certainly lose one. The same holds true in terms of free agency.
Players can make money based off of how they perform in October and how they start their season can certainly impact their pending free agency as well. A player’s rough start can cause them to basically have an uphill battle all season long in order to get back to where their numbers have been in the past. It can cost them millions of dollars.
Some players do better in contract years than others. There isn’t a real science to it.
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Teams are smarter now and are better at not spending money on bad contracts. Look how long it took after last season for guys like Chris Carter and Mark Trumbo to find homes. It happens every year.
There are still time for these five players to right the ship and get back on track and save their seasons and their bank accounts, but right now, if these five were stocks you’d have to sell.
So who are five players who’s stock is trending downward? Let’s take a look and see.
All stats are going into play on 5/5/17.
Eric Hosmer– Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals haven’t exactly gotten off to the best of starts so far this season and have a ton of pending free agents. Earlier this season, I took a look at if Eric Hosmer’s pending free agency is impacting his play and how it’s impacting what his next contract will be. Since then, the results haven’t been that much better.
Hosmer, going into last night, was hitting .252 with just two homers and 10 RBI. His OPS was just .643. Plain and simple that isn’t enough production out of a corner infield spot, nor will it help get you paid in free agency next season.
Yes, Hosmer has postseason pedigree, but you won’t get a large contract because of that. He may have made the All-Star team last season, but had just a 1.2 WAR.
Hosmer can certainly improve and get his numbers close to last season’s career-high in homers and RBI. but even that may not be enough for a big pay day.
His stock may be down right now, but come the All-Star Break we could be looking at something vastly different.
Todd Frazier– Chicago White Sox
Staying in the AL Central, White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier is not helping his free agency case so far this season. Teams aren’t going to overpay for power anymore. The only player last off-season to get a contract over $100 million was Yoenis Cespedes and that’s because he can do a ton of different things.
Strictly power guys like Chris Carter, Jose Bautista and Mark Trumbo had a rough go of it finding deals last off-season. Before last season, Bautista was talking about a $100 million deal. He basically got a one year deal as did Carter. Frazier could be in the same category this coming off-season.
So far, the third baseman has really struggled. He’s hitting just .188 with a .696 OPS, three homers and 10 RBI so far this season after having a 40 homer campaign with a .225 average last season. He’s seen his average and OPS decline since 2015.
Frazier needs to get that average and OPS up in hopes of getting a nice deal after this season. Otherwise he could end up sitting out there in the market for a long time, with teams unwilling to shell out big money for just power and not much else.
Fernando Rodney– Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks this off-season decided to take plunge into the Fernando Rodney closing for your team pool, hoping he had a few more arrows left in that quiver of his. So far this season, there isn’t much water in that pool.
Rodney struggled after being traded from the Padres to the Marlins last season and those struggles have followed him back out west into the desert.
The 40 year old reliever is 1-2 this season with an 11.45 ERA. He has struck out 14 batters in 11 innings, however, he’s given up 16 hits and 15 runs with a WHIP of 2.09.
Rodney’s velocity has been fine so far, but maybe it’s his usage. Per Fangraphs, it’s up a little over four percent, and with him mainly being a two pitch pitcher, maybe a little more variance will help him be more effective?
It also may be that he’s 40 years old and Father Time is catching up to him. However, the Diamondbacks are off to a great start and need as much bullpen help that they can get. If Rodney can turn this around, it will not only help him, but the Diamondbacks as well.
Neil Walker– New York Mets
Walker was off to a solid start in 2016 when a back injury cost him a good chunk of the latter part of the campaign. Walker was entering a contract year last year and the Mets decided to extend him a qualifying offer, which he ended up accepting, giving him another one year deal.
His second go round in New York hasn’t gotten off to a great start for a Mets team that has been ravaged by injuries yet again this season.
Walker so far is hitting .220 with a .638 OPS, two homers and 12 RBI. His soft contact rate is up to 20% and his BABIP this season is just .241, down from .302 last season.
Even though the Mets offense has kicked it into gear lately, they still need Walker to start producing and he does as well in order to get himself one last big deal since he turns 32 in September. Walker’s free agent competition in Brandon Phillips and Jed Lowrie are off to much better starts than Walker.
Teams aren’t inclined to give older second baseman big deals, so Walker is going to need to improve with the stick in order to get a deal next year.
Curtis Granderson– New York Mets
Like Walker, Curtis Granderson’s slow start for the New York Mets has become an issue as well with all of their injuries.
Guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Granderson’s Mets teammate Jay Bruce and J.D. Martinez will all be free agents after this season. All of them are younger than the 36 year old Granderson.
He is going to have to hit better than the .137 he’s currently hitting with a .428 OPS. Last season, Granderson hit 30 bombs but only 59 RBI, because he spent so much time in the lead off spot.
Granderson’s walk rate is down almost in half from last season to just under six percent. He’s swinging at pitches out of the zone more and swinging more in general, but making less contact. Add it up and it’s a recipe for disaster.
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With Yoenis Cespedes out, Granderson will have his opportunites to get it going. However, when he comes back, and if Bruce and Michael Conforto continue to hit, Granderson won’t see the field as much which means it will be harder for him to get that contract next season.
All five of these guys have a history on the back of their baseball card they can turn to in free agency. However, all five need to show something more than they have shown thus far. Otherwise, all five of these guys will be fighting during MLB Free Agency next off-season to try and find a job and all five will have some trouble doing so.