Apr 12, 2017; Anaheim, CA, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Jurickson Profar (19) dives back after over running first base in the fifth inning of the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
With no place to play Jurickson Profar and a need in their rotation, where would be the best fits for the Texas Rangers to shop Profar?
When former elite prospect Jurickson Profar was recently sent down to the minor leagues, many began to piece together that his future in Texas could be limited. In the same week, the Texas Rangers placed rotation leader Cole Hamels on the disabled list with what looks like an extended injury. Could Profar help to heal the pitching needs of the Rangers?
A Quick Look at Profar
Many would wonder why Profar would even be a valued piece. With a .135/.289/.135 slash line this season and not a single extra base hit or stolen base, it’s a worthy question.
However, when you dig deeper into this season’s numbers, you’ll see more there. Profar had an 8/8 BB/K ratio over 46 plate appearances, good for a 17.4 percent rate in both categories. That’s a more than acceptable strikeout rate, and a near-elite walk rate.
Profar was also posting a .172 BABIP on the season when he was sent down. His hit profile was absolutely in line for his normal distribution in both his line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rate, and also in his distribution around the field. He also had an excellent rate of 83.3% of his contact being graded as either medium or hard contact, which definitely would portend to better offense coming.
The main issue has been finding a defensive home for Profar. While he was a top prospect (top 10 consensus prospect before 2012 and the #1 consensus prospect before 2013), Profar looked certain to take over a middle infield spot, but now the Rangers are set for a number of years in both positions with Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor.
After multiple seasons missed with arm issues, a move to third base seemed risky, but he did handle the position well last season. Of course, the Rangers have future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre there once healthy.
In the outfield, the team has found a number of players to fill those spots as well. While the Rangers could find a position certainly in the outfield over guys like Delino DeShields or Ryan Rua.
That said, Profar is already in arbitration, and he has two more seasons of arbitration left. In a similar situation, Chris Davis was just entering arbitration when the Rangers traded him, not having seen what they had in him, and they’ve since regretted not getting better value in that deal. Waiting beyond this year could lead to a similar situation with Profar.
Let’s take a look at who the Rangers could target in exchange for Profar in the market…
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have opened their season in terrible shape both on the field and in the injury department. If the Blue Jays would decide to come to the point of a fire sale, Profar would be an impressive first acquisition piece.
The Blue Jays would offer three veteran options in trade that could certainly interest the Rangers. Marco Estrada is an impending free agent, but he’s certainly the guy who’s thrown the best in the last few years of the group, and he’s having a very good year this year as well with a 3.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 12/45 BB/K ratio over 45 innings.
Francisco Liriano would give the Rangers a lefty for their rotation, but the impending free agent is also the most volatile. Just ask the Pittsburgh Pirates. In 2013, the Pirates brought in Liriano, coming off back-to-back 5+ ERA seasons and saw him post three seasons of 3.38 ERA or better before blowing up in 2016 with a 5.46 ERA over 21 starts before the Pirates traded Liriano at a dirt cheap price, only to see him pitch back to his previous form with the Blue Jays to finish the season, posting a 2.92 ERA over 10 appearances and 49 1/3 innings with a 16/52 BB/K ratio.
This season, Liriano has posted a 4.44 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and a 20/30 BB/K ratio over 26 1/3 innings. It’d be likely the Blue Jays would have to include a piece to get Profar coming their way.
J.A. Happ is also a lefty, and he’s the only one of the group that’s signed for 2018. He’s also been injured this season, so it’d a bit of risk for the Rangers to pick him up. However, in spite of his 4.50 ERA over three starts, Happ has been very good, not allowing a single walk yet on the year, with a 0/20 BB/K over 16 innings.
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Atlanta Braves
The Braves took the intriguing route in their rebuild of adding in a trio of veteran starters that are primarily intended to be around only for 2017. On top of that, the team has a deep rotation at AAA of guys that could interest many teams as feasible major league starters.
On the veteran side, 40+ year-old starters Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey wouldn’t seem to be the type of guys that would interest the Rangers, but when healthy, Jaime Garcia has shown to be a very effective starter from the left side, and he’s shown fairly well so far this year, posting a 3.99 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 13/17 BB/K ratio.
The Braves could pair Garcia with one of their guys at AAA that have experience at the major league level and could be a future rotation piece, but with the depth in their upper minors could be expendable for the team. The most intriguing for opposing teams would likely be righty Matt Wisler, who has had mixed results over his first 45 starts in the majors. Righty Aaron Blair struggled in his MLB debut in 2016, but he has been a top-50 prospect as recently as before the 2016 season, so he could also be a piece that would work well with Garcia in a deal for Profar.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays spent all offseason dodging questions about their ace, Chris Archer. I would have to imagine he would be off the table for Profar straight up for sure, and it would likely require a pretty significant package beyond Profar to get Archer to Texas.
However, both Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi could make sense for the Rays to consider in a deal for Profar, if not for Profar plus another small piece.
Profar does seem like a piece that the Rays would value with his ability to play shortstop (he’s only played the shortstop position) among other infield positions and outfield positions. His position flexibility is something the Rays definitely value, which could push the trade.
Currently Odorizzi is throwing the best of the pair and has the most control of the pair as well. He would likely be the guy the Rangers would prefer. Cobb is a free agent after 2017, so he could be a guy the Rangers could get someone along with Cobb for Profar in a deal due to his impending free agency.
Minnesota Twins
While Ervin Santana could require a package more than the Rangers are willing to offer for his services, the Twins still have a pair of options that could be a good fits in a deal.
The best option could very well be lefty Hector Santiago. While he’s had a speckled career, Santiago has truly adjusted his approach this season, and it’s paid off in droves, as he’s posted a 2.78 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. Santiago re-discovered his screwball in the offseason, and it’s given him a deep arsenal of pitches that has allowed him to be quite effective this year. Santiago is a free agent after 2017.
The other possibility would be righty Phil Hughes. While Hughes is signed through 2019, giving the Rangers some security in his contract, it is questionable whether they want that security with Hughes as he’s struggled to repeat the success he had in 2014 that earned him that contract. Last season’s injury-riddled 5.95 ERA is likely in the mind of any team talking to the Twins, and it’s likely they’d want the Twins to eat significant money or to pitch in a prospect to go with Hughes in order to move Profar for him.
Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics could be an interesting trade partner due to being an in-division rival that the team would have to face frequently, so it could lead to both sides trying to push hard to get more from their division rival to make the trade work.
While Sean Manaea and Kendall Graveman seem likely off-limits, the Athletics have a group of very positive performers in their rotation that are also young pitchers that the Rangers could have under control for a few years, including Jesse Hahn, Andrew Triggs, and Jharel Cotton.
The big fish would be Athletics starter Sonny Gray, who has a previous history in 2014-2015 of combining for a 2.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, a 7.69 percent walk rate, and a 20.35 percent strikeout rate. Gray struggled through an injury-riddled 2016. He recently made his first start of 2017 and is arbitration eligible this winter as well.
I am not sure if a piece would have to be added to one side or the other to make it work, but Gray for Profar would be one of those risk/reward deals on both sides that could be intriguing for both teams.
Kansas City Royals
At the time of this writing, the only team in the American League Central division under .500 is the Kansas City Royals. With nearly half the team eligible for free agency after the season, the Royals are looking at their final year for a run, and if they’re struggling this heavily, the team may begin to sell off pieces to start rebuilding.
The big story early in the season for Kansas City has been the pitching of lefty Jason Vargas. Vargas has made just 12 starts since 2014, but he’s healthy this season, and he’s looking tremendous, with a 1.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 7/35 BB/K ratio over 35 2/3 innings.
Vargas is a free agent after this season and could be a guy that due to his previous health stuff and impending free agency, the Rangers could negotiate in the inclusion of one of KC’s bullpen pieces, like Joakim Soria.
Jason Hammel was signed this winter to a three-year, $16M guaranteed deal that could be worth $26M. He’s struggled early, but Hammel has a proven track record of being a solid #4 type of starter. The Rangers very well may want a bullpen piece included with Hammel to bite on that deal, however.
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Chicago White Sox
The White Sox’s early season success notwithstanding, this is a club that is looking to improve their team through trading assets, and in a conference call this spring, GM Rick Hahn specifically discussed rebuilding through major league ready pieces and/or quality pieces in trades rather than trying to get bigger quantity of prospects in a deal.
The Texas Rangers could be a team to push forward and go all-in on lefty Jose Quintana, especially in order to keep him away from their division rival, the Houston Astros. A move for Quintana will require much more than just Profar, but a deal using Profar, Joey Gallo, and one of their elite young players like Anderson Tejeda or Leody Taveras as the key components of a deal.
Perhaps the best option would be Miguel Gonzalez, the right hander that the White Sox signed before 2016 and have enjoyed tremendous success from the last two seasons. Gonzalez is a free agent after the season, but his excellent work deep into games will allow him to eat innings for the Rangers, and he’s been throwing well this season, with a 3.18 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 39 2/3 innings through six starts.
One interesting name would be former Ranger lefty Derek Holland. The Rangers bought out Holland’s 2017 option and then the White Sox signed him to a one-year, “prove it” deal after multiple seasons of injury issues with Texas from 2014-2016.
Holland is healthy this season, and his production has been excellent, sporting a 2.02 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 12/30 BB/K over 35 2/3 innings.
San Diego Padres
The Padres are a great example of finding guys under valued by the market and plugging them in when the team is not intending to compete.
Right now, the Padres have three guys who could draw interest on the trade market due to early season mixed success and a likely low price on them, meaning the Rangers would likely get something back more than just the veteran starter, perhaps a bullpen piece.
The veterans of interest begin with the excellent performance so far from righty Trevor Cahill. Cahill has posted a 3.60 ERA over 30 innings with a 1.17 WHIP and a 11/37 BB/K ratio.
Jhoulys Chacin has struggled in his most recent starts after starting out the season well, but his peripherals are still solid, with a FIP over a run lower than his ERA. He’s currently sitting on a 5.26 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over 39 1/3 innings.
The guy who may be the best fit for what the Texas Rangers need is Clayton Richard. Richard is a left-handed pitcher and has thrown 40 2/3 innings this year. His ERA was bumped up in the last few starts, but he’s been able to keep many hitters off base today, and he could be an asset to the Rangers, though like any of these guys, he’d likely bring with him a bullpen piece as well.
