The 5 Best Free Agent Signings So Far

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Apr 30, 2017; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman (54) pitches against the Baltimore Orioles during the tenth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

After numerous MLB players signed free agent deals in the offseason, let’s take a look at the five best free agent signings so far.

The free agent signings this past offseason were much more subdued than the year before. In the 2015-2016 offseason, MLB teams signed seven players to contracts worth $110 million or more, including two contracts worth over $200 million (David Price and Zack Greinke). Prior to this year, only Yoenis Cespedes signed a deal worth more than $100 million.

One big difference was the lack of top tier starting pitchers. After David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, and Mike Leake all signed for $80 million or more in the 2015-2016 offseason, the highest-priced free agent starting pitcher signed before this season was Rich Hill, for three years and $48 million.

There was considerable cash doled out to top tier relievers, though. Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon all signed for $60 million or more. Outfielder Dexter Fowler left the Chicago Cubs for the rival St. Louis Cardinals thanks to a 5-year, $82.5 million deal. Ian Desmond got $70 million for five years to play in the hitter’s paradise of Colorado. Infielders Justin Turner and Edwin Encarnacion signed deals worth $64 and $60 million, respectively.

From the bargain bin, there are a few players off to good starts this year who were signed as free agents to minor league contracts, including Mark Reynolds, Anthony Swarzak, and Bud Norris. With most teams having played around 30 games, it’s time to take an early look at the deals inked before this year and determine which have worked out well so far. Here are the five best free agent signings (through the first 30-ish games of the season).

Apr 25, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Eric Thames (7) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a 2-run homer in the sixth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. MLB. /

1B Eric Thames, Milwaukee Brewers

3-years, $16 million

1.8 FanGraphs WAR

1.7 Baseball-Reference WAR

130 PA, 31 R, 12 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, .324/.438/.731

Thames has slowed down a bit since he began the season with 11 homers in his first 20 games. Over his last 10 games, he’s hit a much more down to earth .237/.356/.368. Overall, though, he’s been worth roughly 1.8 Wins Above Replacement. At the free agent rate of $8 million/1 WAR, Thames has given the Brewers almost the full value of his three-year contract in just 30 games.

The story of Eric Thames has been well chronicled. He’s been compared to another player with big-time power, Cecil Fielder, who also struggled in MLB, then had success overseas before coming back to MLB and taking his game to a whole different level. In Fielder’s case, his success came in Japan. Thames did his overseas work in the Korean Baseball Organization, where he averaged 41 homers and 127 RBI across three seasons.

With so few players having made the jump from the KBO to MLB, it was hard to know what to expect from Thames this year, but he had some optimistic projections. The FanGraphs Depth Charts, which uses a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections, with a manual playing time adjustment, projected Thames to hit 30 home runs in 136 games, with a .259/.335/.503 batting line. That line and the expected fielding ability of Thames was projected to be worth 1.8 WAR, which is what he’s already accomplished after one month.

Of course, baseball is all about adjustments. Thames exploded on the league with that monster start, but has slowed down over the last couple weeks. He’s likely to settle in and have a solid season from this point forward, but there’s always the possibility he could be Chris Shelton 2.0. Back in 2006, Shelton started the year with nine home runs in his first 13 games. He had an insane .471/.500/1.216 batting line. Over the rest of the season, he hit .242/.316/.348, with seven home runs in 102 games.

I don’t think Thames will follow that pattern. He’s slowed down lately, but he’ll adjust and the pitchers will adjust back and the dance will continue. Thames has shown enough over the last few years in Korea and in his first month back in the U.S. to expect he’ll remain on the list of top five free agent signings at the end of the season.

Apr 23, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Ivan Nova (46) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. MLB. /

SP Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh Pirates

3-years, $26 million

1.3 FanGraphs WAR

1.7 Baseball-Reference WAR

3-3, 42 IP, 27 K, 1 BB, 2 HR, 2.14 ERA, 2.48 FIP

The Pittsburgh Pirates traded for Ivan Nova last August 1 for a player to be named later, which turned out to be minor leaguer Tito Polo. Nova had a 4.90 ERA with the Yankees at the time of the trade but improved immensely after arriving in Pittsburgh. In his final 11 starts of the season, Nova posted a 3.06 ERA. He was granted free agency in November. About seven weeks later, Nova signed a three-year deal with the Pirates to remain in Pittsburgh.

Whatever magic was spun to make Nova a good starting pitcher last year has carried over into the 2017 season. Through his first six starts, Nova has a 2.14 ERA that is backed up by a 2.48 FIP. The change in Nova has been remarkable. Since joining the Pirates, he has simply refused to walk anyone and greatly cut down on his home runs allowed. Consider the numbers pre-Pittsburgh and with the Pirates:

Ivan Nova, with the Yankees:

53-39, 4.41 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.3 K/BB

Ivan Nova, with the Pirates:

8-5, 2.70 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 0.3 BB/9, 19.8 K/BB

In 106 2/3 innings with the Pirates, Nova has struck out 79 batters and walked just four. This season, he has one walk in 42 innings. Amazingly, that one walk was against an American League pitcher batting in a National League Park, the Yankees Jordan Montgomery, and it was in Montgomery’s first major league plate appearance.

Nova is well on his way to being worth the three-year contract he signed with the Pirates. He could be another Ray Searage success story. We’ll have to see how the rest of the season plays out, but right now Nova is the second-best free agent signing of the offseason.

Apr 29, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner (10) hits a solo home run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. MLB. /

3B Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers

4-years, $64 million

1.7 FanGraphs WAR

1.5 Baseball-Reference WAR

125 PA, 14 R, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 1 SB, .376/.448/.505

Before joining the Dodgers, Turner was a mediocre utility player for the Mets. In 301 games with them, he hit .265/.326/.370. The Mets let him become a free agent in December of 2013. The Dodgers signed him the following February. He only played in 109 games in 2014, but hit .340/.404/.493 and was worth 3.2 WAR. He followed that up with a 4.1-WAR season and a 5.6-WAR season, thanks to strong hitting and great defense.

The Dodgers made Turner a qualifying offer last offseason, which would have meant a one-year, $17.2 million contract. He turned it down and instead signed a 4-year, $64 million deal with the boys in blue. With that long-term contract in hand, Turner is off to a terrific start in the early going of this season.

While he only has one home run so far, a .430 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) has helped fuel a .376/.448/.505 batting line. Turner won’t continue to have a BABIP that high—his career mark is .320—but he should continue to provide great value to the Dodgers. He’s projected to be a 5-win player once again. With his production so far, he’s well on his way to providing surplus value to the Dodgers over the life of that contract.

Apr 24, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies first baseman Mark Reynolds (12) hits a two run home run during the sixth inning against the Washington Nationals at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports. MLB. /

1B Mark Reynolds, Colorado Rockies

1-year, minor league contract ($1.5 million)

0.7 FanGraphs WAR

0.9 Baseball-Reference WAR

124 PA, 20 R, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 0 SB, .321/.379/.661

Reynolds was the Rockies regular first baseman until he suffered an injury to the hamate bone of his left hand last August. He missed just 20 days for an injury that usually requires six-to-eight weeks of recovery time. He came back strong and hit well over his next 12 games before he suffered an injury to the same hand that ended his season in September. In the offseason, he was offered a contract to play in Korea but turned it down to remain closer to his family. The Rockies signed him to a one-year minor league deal on February 1, with an invitation to spring training.

At the time, there didn’t seem to be a spot for Reynolds in the Rockies lineup. The outfield looked to be set and the team had signed Ian Desmond to play first base. Reynolds was a man without a position. Then Desmond was hit by a pitch in a spring training game and Reynolds had a spot at first base. He’s taken full advantage of the opportunity presented to him.

Heading into Tuesday’s game, Reynolds was hitting .321/.379/.661, with 11 home runs and 27 RBI in 31 games. According to FanGraphs, he’s already been worth 0.7 WAR, which translates to a dollar value of $5.6 million. He’s being paid just $1.5 million for the entire season. The Rockies couldn’t be happier with his production so far.

Meanwhile, Ian Desmond came off the DL at the end of April and took over in left field, allowing Reynolds to stay at first base. There will be a roster crunch at some point, though, when David Dahl comes off the DL to play left field. The Rockies have Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez as full-time players in center and right, so it’s possible they’ll move Desmond between first base and left field, with David Dahl playing left field against right-handed pitching and Mark Reynolds playing first base against left-handed pitching.

Apr 11, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies relief pitcher Greg Holland (56) delivers a pitch against the San Diego Padres in the ninth inning at Coors Field. The Rockies defeated the Padres 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. MLB. /

RP Greg Holland, Colorado Rockies

1-year, $7 million

0.8 FanGraphs WAR

0.7 Baseball-Reference WAR

13 SV, 14 IP, 17 K, 5 BB, 0 HR, 1.29 ERA, 1.64 FIP

Greg Holland was a dominant closer for the Kansas City Royals in 2013 and 2014 when he saved a combined 93 games and had a 1.32 ERA in 129.3 innings. He was part of the team’s lockdown reliever trio that helped push the 2014 team all the way to Game 7 of the World Series, which they lost to the San Francisco Madison Bumgarners. Holland wasn’t quite his usual self the following year. It would be revealed in September that he had a significant tear in his ulnar collateral ligament.

After Tommy John surgery in September of 2015, Holland missed the entire 2016 season. Holland was looking for a free agent deal in the offseason prior to this year. While Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon all signed multi-year contracts worth more than $15 million per year, Holland signed a one-year deal worth $7 million. He got less total money than mid-level relievers Brett Cecil (4-years, $30.5 million) and teammate Mike Dunn (3-years, $19 million). Even 42-year-old Koji Uehara (1-year, $6 million) got almost as much as Holland.

Next: Cahill Getting Comfortable

So far, he’s been an incredible bargain. He’s been a perfect 13-for-13 in save opportunities and has 17 strikeouts in 14 innings. His 1.29 ERA is right in line with where he was at his peak in Kansas City, even though he pitches in the best hitter’s park in baseball. Of course, when you get ground balls 51.6% of the time and strikeouts 32.1% of the time, that doesn’t leave many balls in the air that will do damage.

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