Matt Garza is off to an amazing start. His 2.66 ERA is the 22nd best ERA in the entire league among pitchers that have thrown at least 20 innings. It is a stark difference from his previous two seasons when he had 5.18 ERA from 2015 through 2016. Is this something the Brewers can expect or is Garza playing with house money?
When the Brewers signed Matt Garza in 2014 for $50 million over four years, they were getting a pitcher whose last seven consecutive seasons ended with sub-4.00 ERAs. In fact, in 2011, Garza posted a 3.32 ERA with the Chicago Cubs. It was the lowest mark of his career and contributed to a career high 4.9 WAR.
Garza gave what the Brewers expected in his first with the club. In 163.1 innings of work, he finished the season with a 3.64 ERA and 3.54 FIP. However, his strike rate diminished and his walk rate was slowly creeping upward. It was a trend that continued into 2015 and 2016.
| Year | K/9 | BB/9 | K% | BB% | K-BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 6.94 | 2.76 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 11.2% |
| 2015 | 6.30 | 3.45 | 15.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% |
| 2016 | 6.20 | 3.19 | 15.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% |
| 2017 | 7.23 | 1.90 | 20.2% | 5.3% | 14.9% |
In 23.2 innings pitched, Garza is striking out more batters and walking them less. At 94 batters faced, it is safe to say his K% has stabilized this season. Walk rate stabilizes once a pitcher faces 170 batters. It is also far too soon to draw any conclusions about his ERA. However, his DRA and cFIP, provided by Baseball Prospectus, work well with small sample sizes and indicate that this season is not a fluke.
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For those that are not sabermetrically inclined, DRA is stat that measures pitcher performance but takes into consideration a lot more than just earned runs but it is scaled similarly to ERA.
Also, cFIP is another stat that provides predictive value. It is on a 100 “minus” scale so anything above 100 is below average and anything under 100 is above average.
Where does Garza lie this season compared to his past seasons?
| Year | cFIP | DRA |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 107 | 3.61 |
| 2015 | 116 | 6.18 |
| 2016 | 110 | 5.77 |
| 2017 | 97 | 3.93 |
Matt Garza DRA indicates that he is pitching well this season. His DRA is the 63rd best among all pitchers that have thrown at least 20 innings, according to Baseball Prospectus. Similarly, he is likely to continue pitching well as his cFIP is 55th best in the league, again with a minimum of 20 innings pitched. His advanced numbers indicate that he is not just pitching well, but he is expected to continue doing so.
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Of course, health has been a concern for the 33-year-old right-hander. He has not thrown over 200 innings since 2010 when he was on the Tampa Bay Rays. Nor has he made at least 30 starts since 2011. If he remains healthy, then the 2017 season could be one of his best in a while. It would work to his benefit as well. This season is potentially Garza’s last one in Milwaukee if the team does not exercise their $5 million option.