Fantasy baseball forecast: Getting ready for May 15-21
Well, it’s Sunday again, which means it’s time to get your lineups set up for another week of fantasy baseball dominance.
This Sunday we’re going to focus on starting pitchers, but primarily those that will be starting two games during the upcoming week. There are quite a few big names out there like Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco, Marco Estrada and Yu Darvish that fit the bill, but we’re solely going to focus on pitchers that are owned in less that 50% of ESPN leagues.
Due to this super serious limitation that I came up with on my own, there are a couple of pitchers that may be worth taking a look at in your particular league, but which don’t fit our specific criteria here.
The first is Wade Miley, who is expected to start on Wednesday in Detroit. The well-travelled southpaw is off to a solid start this season, rocking a 1-1 record to go along with a 2.45 ERA and a 10.55 K/9 rate. With Baltimore being one of baseball’s best teams in the early going, Miley could definitely be in line for a win, rack up a bunch of strikeouts, and help keep your ERA total low for the week.
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On the downside, Miley is walking over five per nine innings, which is going to inflate your WHIP total. He’s not necessarily a slam dunk given that he’s still Wade Miley, but he’s worth a look at just 39.9% ownership in ESPN leagues.
The other pitcher that is definitely worth taking a look at this week will be making two starts, but just barely surpasses my own 50% rule. That pitcher is Eduardo Rodriguez of the Boston Red Sox, who is owned in 53.8% of leagues and is set to face the St. Louis Cardinals and Oakland Athletics on the road this week.
Rodriguez, like Miley, is 1-1, and holds a slightly higher 2.80 ERA. His strikeout rate is at 10.70 per nine so far, and his walk rate is a decent 3.82. The one hitch with Rodriguez has been his home run rate, which sits just over one per nine frames. In facing the Cardinals and A’s this week, you’re likely to get a couple of different stat lines from the Sox left-hander.
The Red Birds may put up more runs than Oakland, but they’re more likely to do it in a slow, methodical way as opposed to the A’s bloop and a blast approach. St. Louis could be a game to watch out for ERA and WHIP, while his start against Oakland should be a nice way to rack up some strikeouts and a win.
Chase Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers – 38.2%
Chase Anderson of the Milwaukee Brewers is scheduled to start both tomorrow in San Diego against the Padres, and then against the Chicago Cubs over the weekend. The Pads have one of the worst offenses in baseball, operating 22 percent below league average and ranking 25th in runs scored.
For his part, Anderson is 2-0 with a 2.97 ERA through seven starts and holds a 1.32 WHIP. His 3.00 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits right in line with his ERA, which means that the results he’s putting up are reflective of how he’s pitching–no funny business.
The second start of the week against the Cubs may scare some folks off, but he has already faced this club, in Chicago, once this season. In that April 17 start he went five innings, gave up seven hits and three runs (two earned) along with one walk and five strikeouts. He’s averaging 7.78 strikeouts per nine and walking just under three, so the peripherals look solid.
The one problem with Anderson is that if your league accounts for quality starts, he may have a hard time giving you one. His pitch count tends to escalate fairly quickly, and he’s finished seven frames just once in seven starts while failing to finish five innings in each of his last two.
If you’re looking for a two-start pitcher, Anderson may not be fantasy baseball gold, but should be an admirable fill-in for you.
Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks – 2.4%
Godley has taken over Shelby Miller‘s spot in the rotation for the time being and in his two starts at the big league level this season, Goldey has been stellar.
April 26 against the Padres at home, the right-hander tossed five innings, gave up four hits, walked three and allowed two runs while striking out six. In his May 10 start at home against Detroit, he went seven frames, gave up just one earned on four hits and one walk and struck out another six.
He’s sitting at a strikeout per inning, and match-ups against the Mets at home and the Padres at Petco seem to work in his favor. The downside with Godley is that the Mets rank 28th in baseball in strikeout rate, while the Padres and Tigers rank 4th and 8th overall. It’ll be a bit harder to rack up those strikeouts, but a quality start, a low scoring game, and perhaps a win should all be on the table on Monday. As for his weekend start against San Diego, he’s already faced them once this season and had some solid results. He’s definitely a fantasy option to consider this week.
Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics – 32.6%
Manaea is set to come off the disabled list on Monday after missing a couple of weeks with a shoulder strain and will get a chance to turn around what has been a somewhat disappointing start to his season in Seattle on Monday. For the season Manaea is 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA (3.29 FIP) and has been averaging 9.99 strikeouts per nine.
Manaea has faced Seattle once this season already, in Oakland, and he turned in one of his best starts of the season, going six innings, giving up five hits and one earned along with three walks and six strikeouts. Due to the missed time, this could really go either way, but my guess is that he’ll be back to dominating and has not been shy about racking up big strikeout numbers in the past. The Mariners aren’t a strikeout-heavy team this season, but he has already shown he can nab one an inning.
Manaea’s second start of the week will be against the Boston Red Sox, and call it more of a feeling than anything, I’d stay away from him in that start at the Coliseum. Add him, play on Monday and sit him for his weekend start, unless you need the strikeouts.
Dan Straily, Miami Marlins – 12.7%
This is nothing more than a revenge game add. Straily was acquired by the Astros from Chicago in the Dexter Fowler deal that also landed Houston Luis Valbuena, then a little over a year later he was traded from Houston to San Diego for a backup catcher, Erik Kratz. If he’s a little bitter about that valuation, or not really getting a chance for the Astros, this could be a game that he shows them that.
For the season Straily is 1-3 with a 4.03 ERA and a solid 5.4 hits allowed per nine, leaving his WHIP at 1.079. Outside of a breakout 14 strikeout game against the Padres, Straily has been sitting right around five K’s per game, but against the Astros that number may be a touch lower as the ‘Stros rank 29th in baseball in K% at 18.4 percent. Straily also holds a 2.38 ERA in four home starts, albeit against the Braves, Mets, Pirates and Cardinals, so there is one reason besides revenge to give Straily a look this week. His second start would come against the Dodgers on the road, so probably best to leave this to a one outing affair.
Ty Blach, San Francisco Giants – 1.8%
Blach has taken over Madison Bumgarner‘s vacated spot in the rotation, and outside of the one start in Cincinnati where Blach was touched up for eight earned in just three innings, he’s been pretty darn good. That includes his start this past Thursday when he got his revenge against the Reds at home, tossing seven innings and allowing just two earned.
Blach will get the start on Tuesday at home against the Dodgers, and he has been fantastic in his brief exposure to the rivalry. Last October he tossed eight scoreless and allowed just three hits, and on April 25 he gave up two earned over five frames in his first start of the season.
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The big downside with Blach is that he won’t give you too many strikeouts as he’s sitting at just 2.3 K/9 this season, but he should put up a solid performance with little to no scoring and could potentially earn a win, even with the Giants offense supporting him. This will be Blach’s only start of the week given that he pitches on Tuesday and the team has an off day on Thursday.