Typically, there are a few trades before the MLB trade deadline, with the majority of the action occurring around the end of July. That may not be the case this year.
At the beginning of the season, expectations were high for quite a few teams. The San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, and Toronto Blue Jays expected to contend. Meanwhile, teams like the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and even the Atlanta Braves, had hopes of contending as well.
Then there were those teams expected to struggle. The Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, and Colorado Rockies have all surprised this season, playing far better than anyone would have imagined. The MLB standings are essentially upside down from what had been expected at the start of the season.
As such, it is expected that the usual action on the trade deadline will be starting a bit earlier than usual. As Joel Sherman pointed out in his excellent column, given the teams that are falling out of contention, pitching could be on the move sooner than usual. All it takes is for one team to make a move, and the rest of the dominos may fall.
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At this point, it is expected that the Royals will be the first team to make a move. Jason Vargas has been unreal this season, posting a league leading 1.01 ERA and a 0.918 WHiP in his 44.2 innings this season. It has been a remarkable turnaround, as Vargas has made his way back from Tommy John surgery.
Should Vargas be moved, then the rest of the top arms could be traded as well. Players like Yu Darvish, Marco Estrada, and Johnny Cueto could be on the block in short order. And then, arms like Jeremy Hellickson, Jake Odorizzi, and the oft-discussed Jose Quintana may fly off the shelves as well.
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The 2017 MLB Trade Deadline could be a relatively quiet affair. If so, that could be due to all the action that occurred in the weeks leading up to the deadline.