Atlanta Braves: Luck is swaying for Dansby Swanson
By Will Summers
The end of the 2016 season had just about every writer and analyst pegging Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson as the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year. His year has started off incredibly slow. His chances are still alive, but hardly.
The Atlanta Braves have continued to stand behind Dansby Swanson as he scuffles to start 2017. He’s been giving back, even if the stat line doesn’t show it. Recent coverage on the Georgia native has given insight on his recent upswing. The fact here is he’s been trending up much longer than just the last few days.
The media has come to notice the eight-game hit streak Swanson has put together. What nobody’s noticed is his turning point came much earlier than May 9. Swanson was hitting .138 entering the April 28 game against the Milwaukee Brewers. He didn’t record a hit that game and his average dropped again to .134. This game was also his turning point. Yes, he didn’t get a hit, but he went 0-for-2 with two walks and a strikeout. An oh-fer is never a pretty thing, especially when paired with a three strike at-bat.
What’s noteworthy here is Swanson watching eight bad pitches, awarding him first base twice, and putting the ball in play twice. One of his ABs could have easily been a hit if not for Keon Broxton. He also stole a base and scored two runs because of those two walks. Still a good day at the office. April 29 saw Swanson go 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBI. The next night, he went 1-for-3.
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The death of April saw a birth in good fortune for Dansby Swanson. The three-game set at the end of the first month had him hitting .300 with a home run, three runs scored, two RBI and two walks. The month of May has seen the 23-year-old hit .282 with a .400 OBP. The power hasn’t yet shown up around that eight-game hit streak, hitting .345 with six RBI, but he’s thrown in a couple of extra-base hits here and there.
All season you may have heard that Swanson is suffering from a high strikeout rate. This is still true. During this eight-game hit streak, he’s struck out 11 times. This adds to his current 26.2 percent K-rate, per FanGraphs. Striking out this much is a worry, but it isn’t a new development. The 2016 version of Dansby, the one that hit .302/.361/.442, still struck out at a 23.4 percent rate. So, pointing at his K-rate as the big reason for his initially poor performance is null.
His .302 performance was a result of a .383 BABIP. This is an anomaly created by small sample size. It is not something Swanson’s abilities can sustain over a full season, and something even red-hot teammate Freddie Freeman isn’t doing now. This is a good time to point out Dansby Swanson was always thought of as a .300 hitter only in his career-best seasons.
Adding to his bad luck, Swanson is seeing more sliders than just about everyone in MLB at 26.1 percent. Pitchers who are going with a slider on a two-strike count are winning. Swanson has a .000 average in these 51 occurrences. Expanding to any count and he’s still at three goose eggs. As our friends at Tomahawk Take have said, he has a problem with sliders.
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If you’re looking for encouragement, think about what we know so far. Despite a high strikeout rate, he’s hit quite well in the past and is hitting quite well again. Despite an alarming slider problem, he’s hit quite well in the past and is hitting quite well now. Keep in mind Dansby Swanson was a college junior just two years ago. We can’t expect him to adjust like a veteran when he’s hardly exceeded rookie status.