Cleveland Indians: Can Mike Clevinger Stick Around?

There have been a lot of question marks surrounding the rotation of the Cleveland Indians this season. Mike Clevinger has been one of the few bright spots. But will he be able to keep up his success, and what role will he have in the future? Let’s get a little background first.

The Cleveland Indians came into 2017 as the reigning American League champions. They were if not the prohibitive favorites to repeat, certainly right up there with Boston and Houston. This was a team that was able to make it to the World Series without Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Michael Brantley – three players who were out due to injury during the team’s magical run to a 3-1 lead in the World Series but were now back and healthy. They were adding Edwin Encarnacion into the offensive mix and even had reinforcements in the minor leagues in the form of Bradley Zimmer and Yandy Diaz, top prospects who were ready for their time in the limelight.

Despite all that positive buzz, the 2017 season has been a bit underwhelming. Cleveland currently sits at 22-19, just behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central and barely in the playoffs if the season ended on Saturday. The offense has been right around league average (wRC+ of 97; 15th in MLB) and the bullpen has been lights out (1.82 reliever ERA is first in baseball), but the rotation has been iffy.

Cleveland starters have an ERA of 4.98 on the season (through Saturday’s games), third-worst in all of baseball. Here are the ERAs for the six pitchers who have made starts for Cleveland this season:

Now the starters look a lot better if you switch from ERA to FIP, but in terms of what has actually happened, the results on the field have been quite poor. 

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Of course one name stands out on that chart above: Mike Clevinger.

When Corey Kluber went out with a stiff back on May 3, it looked like it could be a massive blow. The rotation was clearly already struggling, and Kluber was supposed to be the rock. Salazar and Carrasco were the two with the electric stuff, but they were also the two who were always dealing with nagging injuries, so it made the Kluber injury all that much more troubling.

That’s why the performance of Clevinger has been so important for Cleveland.

In his three starts, Clevinger has thrown 17 innings and allowed just three runs. His first start was a five and a third inning shutout performance that resulted in a 1-0 win for Cleveland. Every one of those 16 outs proved essential. His second start was his lone loss of the season, as he gave up three runs over four and two-thirds innings – hardly a blowup. In his most recent start, Clevinger had his best outing yet, tossing seven shutout innings in a 3-0 win over the current AL leaders, the Houston Astros. The 6’ 4” righty allowed just two hits and two runs over those seven frames and punched out eight Astros.

Clevinger has been a solid albeit not outstanding prospect throughout his career, and he posted a 5.26 ERA in his 53 major league innings prior to 2017, so it’s fair to ask how much of this fast start has been real and how much has been the result of a small sample size.

We’ll start by saying that he’s definitely been a bit lucky by the two most obvious luck measurements. His .171 opponent BABIP is over 100 points below league average, and there’s simply no way he will be able to maintain that figure. Last year’s league leader in suppressing BABIP was Marco Estrada, a pitcher who has proven his ability to limit hard contact, and he still had an opponent BABIP over 60 points higher (.234). Clevinger is also sporting a left on base rate of 82.4 percent, which would have ranked third among qualified pitchers in 2016. 

All that said, there are certainly some actual signs of improvement for the righty. Clevinger is striking out 9.87 batters per nine innings, a figure that would have also ranked in the top ten among starting pitchers in 2016. His low BABIP can also be explained in part due to allowing just 17.1 percent hard contact this season.

That figure would easily have led pitchers in 2016, and, in fact, ranks fifth among pitchers with as many innings thrown in 2017. Clevinger will certainly need to cut down on his walks (5.71 BB/9) in future outings if he wants to continue to have success, but his success has not been merely a fluke so far.

Let’s conclude by saying this: it may not matter. Kluber is due back soon and Carrasco’s scare ended up being just a scare. Sure, Salazar or Carrasco could go down to an injury at any point, but in all likelihood, Clevinger will be back in Triple-A before too long. With that in mind, Clevinger did more than what was asked of him. He helped settle the rotation and gave the team arguably its biggest win of the season in the form of the 3-0 win over Houston in which Clevinger had a no-hitter through six innings, and the team combined for a three-hit shutout.

Given that success, there will be fans calling for Clevinger to stick around the rotation.

Clevinger was pitching well in Triple-A, with a 1.50 ERA over 30 innings and a better than 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was 11-1 with a 3.00 ERA over 17 starts in Triple-A in 2016 and by all measurements seems to have conquered the top level of organized baseball outside of MLB. Unfortunately for the 24-year-old, he still has two options remaining with the team. Danny Salazar (5.66 ERA) and Trevor Bauer (6.65 ERA) are out of options. One of those two could be moved to the bullpen, but I doubt Terry Francona is going to want to mess around with whatever is working so well out there in the pen right now. Clevinger still has plenty of time and opportunity with this team. Injuries happen and if Bauer is still struggling this much by the All-Star break, the team will simply have to make a move.

Next: Potential trouble spots for MLB contenders

With Kluber set to return to the rotation this week, Clevinger may be out of the picture in Cleveland for a minute, but don’t be surprised if he’s back sooner than later and pitching well once again.