MLB: AL Sabermetric All-Stars

The MLB All-Star Game is still nearly two months out, but All-Star voting has been open since the start of May, and as a result, baseball fans can’t afford to be uninformed when it comes to filling out a ballot any longer.

The MLB.com ballot gives you some of the classic baseball stats (BA/HR/RBI/SB) when choosing which players to vote for, but we all know there is far more to a player than those numbers suggest. We have seemingly unlimited ways to compare players now, so let’s use some of those to decide who has truly been the most deserving based on their work in 2017.

Today we will look at the American League, stripping out the value of being a big name (although there are plenty of big names in the slides upcoming) and going strictly by the numbers. If the numbers are too close, maybe we can go to a storyline tiebreaker, but these will hopefully rely on cold hard statistics. If that’s not your style, that’s all right, there are plenty of other MLB All-Star articles in the pond.

A few quick things. We are going by FanGraphs’ positional statistics, so players can qualify for a position even if it isn’t their main spot. The MLB All-Star ballot isn’t that flexible, but it doesn’t mean we have to be locked into the same Draconian positional rigidity. Just look at what the NBA is doing with their All-NBA teams. It’s only a matter of time before all the shifting in the field and the multi-positional players make the MLB All-Star ballot less rigid than it is today.

With that in mind, we’ll go one position per slide, leading off with the backstops of the AL.

Catcher: Brian McCann (Houston Astros)

The backstop position in the American League has been a bit of a disaster this season. The two leaders atop the FanGraphs’ WAR leaderboard are Alex Avila and Welington Castillo, a pair of catchers who have both failed to crack the 100 plate appearance plateau yet this season. Both of those two have also rated below average in terms of pitch framing in 2017, with Alex Avila being particularly detrimental behind the dish, ranking 65th among 76 catchers behind the plate in pitch framing this season, per Baseball Prospectus. Salvador Perez has 11 home runs and is hitting .280, but his on-base percentage is just .321 and he is somehow even worse than Avila when it comes to pitch framing, ranking 70th of the aforementioned 76 backstops in 2017.

McCann and Yan Gomes were the only two AL catchers who have both hit well and done well defensively behind the plate in 2017. McCann has been slightly better from the hitting side of things, and since those metrics are a bit more reliable at this point in time, he gets the nod. McCann has played 30 games this season and been worth just under a win for the first-place Astros. He’s one of only five hitters with at least 100 plate appearances to have as many walks as strikeouts, and he’s the only one in that group to be a catcher. He has been above-average in all defensive metrics available and only Perez has a better wRC+ with as many plate appearances among catchers.

First Base: Yonder Alonso (Oakland A’s)

It has been the year of Alonso, who seemingly has a big-time profile on him come out every few days. That will happen when you set a new career high in home runs by May 9. Alonso has also been walking more than ever this season, due in part to pitchers beginning to fear this hitter who had never topped nine home runs in a season before 2017. Alonso’s isolated power of .347 this season leads all AL first baseman, a powerful position to say the least.

Alonso is far from a defensive wizard at first base, but none of the other top candidates for the spot (Marwin Gonzalez, Logan Morrison, Justin Smoak) are elite defenders either, allowing Alonso’s offensive breakout to be the difference maker.

It’s kind of crazy looking over the top four candidates for the position right now and a friendly reminder that it is still early in the season. When All-Star voting wraps in six weeks or so, there’s a decent chance that Miguel Cabrera, Jose Abreu, or another big name has started to percolate and may overtake Alonso et al., but for now it’s Yonder’s spot to lose.

Second Base: Jose Altuve (Houston Astros)

This is one of the closest positions so far. An argument could be made for any of the top five on the FanGraphs’ WAR leaderboard right now.

Starlin Castro is hitting .341 with 58 RuBIns (runs+RBI), neither of which can be topped by any other second baseman in the AL.

Robinson Cano is arguably the biggest name in the mix, and before his recent DL stint, was just about on par with Altuve in terms of overall production.

Jed Lowrie is quietly putting together a great comeback season, staying healthy and producing both with the bat (123 wRC+) as well as coming in just about league average with the glove (which Castro and Altuve haven’t been able to say in 2017).

Jose Ramirez was the closest competition for Altuve, but, in the end, Altuve’s slight edge with the bat was enough to tilt the scales in his favor after Ramirez used his defensive prowess to cancel out Altuve’s speed advantage. Plus there’s the fact that although he qualifies as a second baseman thanks to 15 games there this season, Ramirez has played more games (26) at third base.

Altuve is hitting .307 and sporting a walk rate of 8.7 percent in 2017. He’s hitting home runs (7) and stealing bases (9) in unison once again this season, and he continues to produce more than enough with the bat and legs to make up for the slip in defensive production he has seen over the past year-plus.

Third Base: Miguel Sano (Minnesota Twins)

This is a pretty easy pick. Sano has been an absolute monster this season, slashing .304/.430/.615 in his 39 games so far this season. His strikeout rate (35.2 percent) is still a bit higher than he and the Twins would like to see it, but he is walking in over 18 percent of his plate appearances, and when he makes contact with the ball he’s hitting it hard enough to tear the seams off the ball.

Joe Posnanski did an excellent job highlighting just how hard Sano is hitting the ball in a recent piece for MLB.com that you should read, but here’s the best stat from the article:

Here are the Top 5 in average exit velocity: Miguel Sano, 98.1 mph Aaron Judge, 94.5 mph (tie) Alex Avila, 94.5 mph Adam Lind, 94.0 mph Gary Sanchez, 93.6 mph

We’ve all heard (over and over and over again) how hard Aaron Judge is hitting the ball this season, but Sano is actually hitting the ball harder. It’s showing too, with 10 home runs and 62 RuBIns. His average is likely to slip below .300 by the All-Star break (his .463 BABIP right now is beyond insane), but with the walks and power he adds to the mix, that shouldn’t hurt his overall value too much. It’s hard to see anyone other than Sano deserving this spot even when the All-Star Game actually comes around.

Left Field: Corey Dickerson (Tampa Bay Rays)

All right, here’s a name that you wouldn’t have had on your preseason AL All-Star ballot. Dickerson came into the season fresh off a disappointing first season in Tampa Bay, one in which he got on base at less than a .300 clip and struck out basically once every four plate appearances. Dickerson has already topped his value from 2016 (1.5 fWAR) through 43 games of 2017 (2.2 fWAR).

Dickerson is either at the very top or right near it in just about every left field category in the AL this season:

That is some severe dominance, with Brett Gardner being the only option who really comes close. Aaron Hicks is having a strong season but simply doesn’t get in the lineup every day for New York, while Khris Davis’ defense is enough of a handicap to cancel out nearly all the value he gets from his position-leading 13 home runs.

Gardner is having an excellent season of his own, but he simply hasn’t quite been as spectacular as Dickerson, but he’s certainly the guy to keep an eye on as the next month and a half plays out. (Gardner is also the guy to go with if you demand on the slotting Dickerson at the DH spot, which the actual MLB All-Star ballot is doing right now. Dickerson has already played 18 games in left field this season, though, so it seems silly to limit him to DH.)

Center Field: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)

Ummm, duh. Ben Lindbergh wrote recently about how Trout, SOMEHOW, is playing even better than ever before in 2017. The 25-year-old is making it extremely difficult to be hyperbolic when describing his achievements on a baseball diamond, putting together one of his best two-month stretches to begin 2017.

So far in 2017, in just 40 games, he has basically hit half of his total number of home runs from last season (14 in 2017 to 29 in 2016), and his isolated power (.407) is over 100 points better than any previous season. Again, these are previous seasons from the best young player of all time. A player who owns the record for WAR for a player through his age-20 season. And his age-21 season. And his age-22 season. And his age-23 season. And his age-24 season. And he will likely hold that designation for age-25 season once he finishes off this killer 2017 campaign.

Right now, Trout is leading the league in: WAR (3.1), wRC+ (222), SLG (.757), ISO (.407), and OBP (.466). He is in the top ten in: HR (14), R (31), RBI (34), SB (9), BA (.350), and BB (29) – that’s all the statistics.

The man is unparalleled, full stop. There’s a very good chance that we are watching the greatest multi-year stretch from any player in MLB history. (And maybe the G.O.A.T.)

Right Field: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees)

It’s appropriate to follow up Trout with Judge since Judge is the only player in baseball right now capable of creating as much hyperbole as Trout – and he is backing it up for the time being.

Now just to clarify, Judge isn’t even in the same hemisphere as Trout. Trout has been doing this for over half a decade, Judge has been doing it for 39 games. But those 39 games have been glorious.

The 6’7” behemoth has been treating the rest of the league like they are Loki and he is the Incredible Hulk.

He has 15 home runs, which lead the league, but it hasn’t just been the long balls. He’s hitting .321 and getting on base at a .421 clip. He has shaved 15 percent off his strikeout rate from 2016, while simultaneously walking four percent more. His plate discipline profile shows more improvement than a sitcom home after the fixer-upper montage.

Judge is even doing wild and crazy things in the field.

Mookie Betts and Avisail Garcia have been outstanding in 2017, and if we added Mitch Haniger’s hot start to J.D. Martinez’s scorching return from the DL we might be able to reach Judge’s output, but the verdict (man, I hate myself…) is easy right now.

DH: Nelson Cruz (Seattle Mariners)

With Dickerson out of the DH picture thanks to my blatant ignoring of his 25 games as a DH, that leaves Cruz as the league’s DH choice. (If you find this abhorrent, go ahead and slot Dickerson as the DH and Gardner as the left fielder, but you have to be the one to break it to Cruz’s family who is already making their plans for All-Star Weekend in Miami on the basis of this article.)

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Cruz started the season off slowly, slugging .120 in his first seven games and failing to hit his first home run until the 11th game of the season, but he has been red hot since then, slashing .344/.418/.649 since that opening seven-game salvo, with 11 homers and 35 RBI in that stretch. There’s not much to sabermetrically parse at the DH position. Defense doesn’t matter and everyone’s WAR is dinged by the positional adjustment, so we’re just looking for the best hitter here, and Cruz is that man.

Dickerson is the only hitter with a better batting average among DHs, and while Robbie Grossman (.413 OBP) has been better at getting on base, Cruz’s 131-point lead in slugging percentage over Grossman is more than enough to cancel out the slight on-base edge Grossman has. Cruz also leads all DHs in games played, as he has been a reliable bat in the Mariner lineup ever since that little bump in the road to start the season. Cruz even has a rare steal this season.

Next: MLB Power Rankings

That’s it for the AL roster. We’ll be back later this week to select on NL Sabermetric All-Stars.