Charlie Morton has failed to make at least 30 starts in a season. After making his debut in 2008, his first three years in the league were lackluster. However, after Tommy John surgery, his performance has been serviceable. An increase in velocity and strikeout rate are promising signs.
Charlie Morton‘s career has been beset by injuries. Let’s go through the list, shall we? He has suffered from an oblique strain, shoulder fatigue, hip inflammation followed by two hip surgeries, a sports hernia, a hamstring injury and elbow inflammation followed by Tommy John surgery. At 33 years old and an injury history as long as his, it’s a surprise that the Houston Astros signed him for two years.
However, the Astros are a team that sees upside where others don’t. For example, after acquiring Mike Fiers in a trade in 2015, he no-hit the Los Angeles Dodgers shortly following the trade. Granted, a lot of luck goes into a no-hitter and the Astros could not have possibly foreseen it, there was value in acquiring a fringe starter like Fiers. Signing a pitcher like Morton undoubtedly raises eyebrows, but there’s something going on with the veteran right-hander.
Since 2014, the average velocity on most of Morton’s pitches has steadily increased.
| Year | Fourseam | Curve | Sinker | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 92.66 | 78.99 | 91.94 | 85.15 |
| 2015 | 92.78 | 79.23 | 92.38 | 84.71 |
| 2016 | 95.22 | 81.32 | 94.83 | 86.62 |
| 2017 | 96.95 | 81.69 | 96.00 | 87.19 |
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One of Morton’s biggest flaws was his lack of command. His K-BB% never reached over 10 percent until 2014, underscoring his inability to throw strikes consistently. Though he only pitched 17.1 innings in 2016, his strikeout rate is the highest it has been over the last two years. In fact, he is posting the largest strikeout-to-walk differential of his career. So far he has faced 271 batters, so the small sample caveats do not apply for his strikeout and walk rates.
However, no improvement in control will undo the damage of home runs. Unfortunately, Morton is posting the highest home run to flyball ratio of his career. Morton is projected to make 19 more starts, according to Steamer projections at FanGraphs. He has already given up seven homers in nine starts and is on pace to allow around 22 dingers this season, the most he will have allowed in any given season.
The homers that Morton allowed were off pitches thrown low in the strike zone. Morton’s primary pitches are his sinker and curveball that he throws low in the zone. In fact, most of his pitches end up in the lower part of the strike zone given the breaking nature of both pitches. Although his improved command has increased the number of strikes, it has come at a cost.
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If Charlie Morton is able to mix up the location of his pitches, he will be paying dividends to the Astros who banked on his upside.