Los Angeles Dodgers: Can Kenley Jansen win the Cy Young this year?
Kenley Jansen is elite. Full stop. Since becoming the Dodgers’ closer in 2012, Jansen is second to Aroldis Chapman on FanGraphs’ leaderboards. Yet, somehow, Jansen has gotten better each year. This season is Jansen’s year. In 17 innings pitched, the Dodgers’ “Big Man” is posting a 0.04 FIP!
In order to put Kenley Jansen‘s insanely low FIP into perspective, allow me to reframe it this way. Going all the way back to 1871 and looking at relievers who have thrown at least 10 innings, Jansen is posting the second lowest FIP so far this season!
Who is at the top of the leaderboard? John McMullin of the Philadelphia Whites. In 1875, McMullin threw 12.2 innings of relief. He gave up no home runs and walked only one batter. However, he gave up 31 hits. Jansen, on the other hand, has allowed one home run. In 17 innings of work, Jansen has allowed only 13 hits and has tallied 32 strikeouts.
But even more impressive is the fact that Jansen has not allowed any walks this year. In fact, Jansen has only allowed 19 walks since 2015! The last time Jansen allowed at least 19 walks in a given season was in 2014.
But let’s narrow the scope and just look at how Jansen has performed since 2012 compared to Aroldis Chapman.
| Player | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapman | 326.1 | 1.90 | 1.67 | 13.7 |
| Jansen | 345.0 | 2.19 | 1.87 | 12.6 |
Chapman edges out Jansen in ERA due to allowing fewer earned runs. He also beats Jansen in FIP due to giving up fewer home runs, which punishes pitchers greatly in its calculation.
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Let’s zoom in once more and look at Kenley Jansen compared to other relievers since 2015. The 29-year-old closer has gotten better after each season and shares the top of the FanGraphs leaderboard with Andrew Miller. Along with Chris Devenski of the Houston Astros, Jansen is one of only two pitchers to allow, at most, 19 walks since 2015.
To underscore his dominance further, Jansen is the only pitcher this year that has not issued a walk. In fact, until his outing on May 21, he was the only pitcher this season who had not issued a walk and had not given up a home run.
It may be too early to talk about the Cy Young, especially when discussing relief pitching. The last reliever to win the Cy Young was former Dodgers closer Eric Gagne in 2003. However, Jansen is projected to allow only four more home runs and eight walks, according to ZiPS rest-of-season projection.
Next: Top early season Cy Young favorites
With the kind of performance Jansen has had since becoming the Dodgers’ closer and the incredible start to 2017, it is not out of the question to start wondering if he is a Cy Young contender.