New York Yankees: Luis Severino making his ace case

After last year’s disappointment, Luis Severino appears to be back on schedule for the New York Yankees.

The New York Yankees have been one of baseball’s best teams over the first two months of the season. However, their rotation has lacked a real leader to this point. Masahiro Tanaka, coming off a top-10 finish in the Cy Young race, was expected to fill that role once again, but he’s struggled to a 5.86 ERA through 10 starts.

Luis Severino entered spring training without a guaranteed spot on the starting staff. After last year’s disappointing showing, no one really knew what to expect from the 23-year-old right-hander. Some thought he should remain in the bullpen, where he looked vastly more effective in 2016.

Severino has answered those questions and then some in the opening third of the 2017 campaign. He’s been the Yankees’ standout starting pitcher, fulfilling the potential that once made him the organization’s top pitching prospect. Even if Tanaka straightens himself out – and it’s hard to think he won’t – Severino is making his case to remain one of the club’s frontline starters, not just a back-end rotation arm.

Severino’s numbers are better virtually across the board compared to a year ago. In 61.1 innings, he boasts a 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 4.60 K/BB ratio. After posting 9.9 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 last season, his rates have improved to 7.5 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 so far this year.

Of the young righty’s 10 outings, six have been quality starts. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but two of those appearances, including his last five times on the mound. Severino carried a 3.00 ERA into the month of May, but two less-than-stellar performances on May 1 and May 14 raised that number to 3.86.

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Since that mild misstep he’s gotten back on track, spinning eight scoreless innings against the Royals on May 24 and holding the Orioles to one run over 6.1 frames last night. That lowered his season ERA to 2.93, tops among Yankees starters and good for 12th in the American League.

The bullpen talk was always much too premature for Severino due to his age. He only turned 23 near the end of February, giving him plenty of time to figure things out. He appears to have found some answers in the early going, and the Bronx Bombers might have an old enemy to thank.

Severino worked with Hall of Famer and fellow countryman Pedro Martinez over the winter, focusing on improving his slider and changeup. The results are palpable: Opponents are hitting just .157 with a .420 OPS against those pitches. Combined with his fastball, Severino has quite the lethal arsenal at his fingertips.

While there may still be some rough patches ahead, as there are for any pitcher, there aren’t any major warning signs to suggest Severino’s current performance level is unsustainable. His .282 BABIP and 80.4 percent strand rate aren’t particularly out of the ordinary. Severino has benefited from a 54.4 percent ground ball rate, up from 45.1 percent last season.

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Severino isn’t the only Yankees hurler defying expectations. The traditionally frustrating Michael Pineda has been more than solid, posting a 3.32 ERA over his first 10 outings. However, Severino’s youth and prospect pedigree make him an especially exciting case to watch develop. If he keeps this up, the Yanks could indeed have an ace-type pitcher on their hands for this year and beyond.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

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