Phillies’ Options Going Forward
If you’re wondering about your team, tomorrow will be better than today, the same or somewhere in between for the skipper and the crew of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Three Directions:
During rough times, approaching the breaking point can invigorate the spirit and the mind of the competitor to rise to the challenge and be victorious.
Until the 11-9 Phillies traveled to Los Angeles, the promise shown last summer was coming to fruition. And even though the club was facing postseason-bound organizations, May appeared to be a .500 month. Unfortunately, the snowball kept rolling down the hill, accelerated, and buried the Philadelphia Phillies under the other 29 franchises with June on the horizon. Digging out is at hand.
Before this 162 began, the prediction here was 82-80, and manager Pete Mackanin, Ricky Bottalico and Ben Davis also saw a .500 record or slightly better. However, key members the organization was counting on didn’t improve or even hold their ground. Yes, the ingredients are here but confidence has taken a “hit.” And these 25 men are sitting at ocean’s bottom with nowhere to go but toward oxygen.
Along the dugout railing, Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff study Jeremy Hellickson exploiting the holes in each hitter’s swing. The batter expects the express but gets the local, and then he rockets the ball – bang! – near the Phils’ bench. And while the hurlers discuss the weaknesses they notice, center fielder Aaron Altherr tracks down a drive near the warning track to end the third inning and heads for his “lumber” to lead off. C’mon, base-hit ‘im!
In June, Philadelphia will open the month against the San Francisco Giants and the Atlanta Braves and have those seven games to end this losing spell. Keep in mind, stronger clubs will follow for 17 contests: The St. Louis Cardinals, the Boston Red Sox and the Arizona Diamondbacks. St. Louis is a .500 squad, Boston is a contender, but Arizona may be overachieving. Finally, the red pinstripes end June with three games: the Seattle Mariners (2) and the New York Mets (1). Ergo, possible but not easy.
NICE CATCH: “Fans tend to get too excited by streaks of either kind and I think the press does too. There should be a happy medium.” – Walter “Smokey” Alston
In the pipeline, first baseman Rhys Hoskins is pushing Tommy Joseph, but Joseph averaged .300 with seven homers and 17 RBIs for May and is producing overall numbers in line with 2016. On the other hand, right fielder Dylan Cozens has 13 home runs and 41 RBIs but is hitting only .245 for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs after a slow start. And catcher Jorge Alfaro is batting .289 with three bombs and 26 RBIs, but major league hurlers need an experienced game caller who knows their stuff and their competition. Meanwhile, there are three possibilities for two starters: One has the most MLB experience, one has the stats, and another has the best stuff.
May stats:
- Joseph: .300, 7 HR, 17 RBI and a .973 OPS.
- Hoskins: .300, 7 HR, 29 RBI and a 1.040 OPS.
- Cozens .330, 9 HR, 26 RBI and a 1.075 OPS.
- Alfaro: .255, 0 HR, 14 RBI and a .595 OPS.
As for the five-man staff, the red and white have three question marks. Is Hellickson the pitcher from April or May? Has the league caught up to Eickhoff? And since he returned from the disabled list, which hurler is Nola: the one in his first or his last two outings? Now, two starters from Lehigh Valley will receive a call-up, which means their effectiveness for the Phillies will be a toss-up.
After previously having difficulty in the campaign, the relief corps has been solid of late. And although the final four frames have relievers settling in nicely, the other three hurlers have something to offer as well. One is finally ready to stick with the Phils, another is 2016’s closer back in middle relief, and the third is the only southpaw in the pen.
After scoring runs in April, the offense will continue to struggle if Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco don’t add their hits and power to the middle of the order. But while there is production from Cesar Hernandez, Altherr and Joseph, they can only do so much. For now, however, Herrera must stay in center field and concentrate on his hitting. Meanwhile, Franco has no replacement with the IronPigs, and the offense needs him to demonstrate more potential this season.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “When you play long enough, everybody goes through spells and streaks and slumps of some nature. I think it’s just one of the those things where you have to play yourself out of it.” – Mark “the Moose” Messier
With openings for two starters and two regulars not hitting, reaching .500 for June will be a challenge. In other words, they will try to stay afloat unless some surprises occur in the rotation and/or lineup.
THE CALL FOR MAY:
15-13 or two games over .500
The debacle was 16 games under .500 and 17-34 total. Unfortunately, they missed two series – six games – to redeem themselves and stop the losing.
Normally, getting a vibe from this team hasn’t been this difficult.
THE CALL FOR JUNE:
12-15 or three games under .500
The overall prediction is 29-49.
In the clubhouse, a pitcher and a hitter have grown weary of the postgame interviews and are glad they won instead of again explaining a defeat. Yeah, we can talk about a seventh-inning rally and a game-winning RBI. But tomorrow, we might strand base runners or lose to a struggling rookie. We just have to find a way to win!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Stats are through May 31.
According to Fangraphs, here is a plate-discipline comparison between Hoskins, Cozens and Alfaro.
Plate discipline::
- Hoskins: K% at 16.3% and BB% at 13.4%
- Cozens: K% at 34.3% and BB% at 8.3%
- Alfaro: K% at 31.0% and BB% at 1.7%
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
Stats are through May 31.
Triple-A Hitting:
- Hoskins, 24: 52 Gms., 209 PA, a .316 Avg., a .411 OBP, a .638 SLG, a .322 ISO, a .326 BABIP, 13 HR, 41 RBI, a 1.050 OPS and a 1.5 WARP.
- Cozens, 23: 49 Gms., 204 PA, a .245 Avg., a .309 OBP, a .516 SLG, a .272 ISO, a .311 BABIP, 13 HR, 41 RBI, an .825 OPS and a 1.0 WARP.
- Alfaro, almost 24: 40 Gms., 174 PA, a .289 Avg., a .316 OBP, a .410 SLG, a .120 ISO, a .409 BABIP, 3 HR, 26 RBI, a .726 OPS and a 1.0 WARP.