Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado's slump continues to puzzle

Most expected to see Manny Machado as an MVP frontrunner, not hitting barely above .200. What’s going on with the Baltimore Orioles superstar?

It’s rather startling to see Manny Machado batting .211 on June 2, yet here we are. The Baltimore Orioles third baseman has been in a two-month-long funk to begin the 2017 season, and he surprisingly hasn’t been able to shake it.

He showed signs of life yesterday to kick off the month of June, going 2-for-4 with two runs scored in the Orioles’ 7-5 win over the Red Sox. But the hole Machado has dug himself into will take a lot longer to get out of. His season slash line still sits at a lowly .211/.289/.407 through 51 games. He’s knocked 10 homers and driven in 25 runs.

So what exactly is wrong with the three-time All-Star, and is there reason to believe a turnaround is imminent? The first thing that stands out about Machado’s peripheral and advanced statistics is his .211 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). That’s well below his career average of .304. Machado’s luck should eventually turn there and lead to better results.

Machado has also been whiffing more than usual. He currently sports a 21.5 percent strikeout rate, up from his career average of 17.2 percent. In Baltimore’s series with the Yankees earlier this week, he struck out eight times, including a golden sombrero in the middle game. However, Machado is actually swinging at fewer balls outside the strike zone: 29.4 percent versus 32.0 percent last year. So he’s not exactly chasing.

What’s the issue? In a piece published yesterday examining Machado’s struggles, ESPN’s Eddie Matz details the third baseman’s trouble with handling sliders:

“He’s not picking up the spin on the ball,” [a] scout said of Machado, whose swing-and-miss rate on sliders this season is 46 percent, way up from his 33 percent career mark coming into 2017.

Opposing pitchers are now throwing Machado more sliders than they have in the past to exploit the weakness. Matz points out that Machado is flailing against fastballs as well. His paltry .179 batting average against heaters is the third-worst in Major League Baseball.

It’s strange to see a player as gifted as Machado struggling with a seemingly elementary aspect of the game. However, his extended dry spell serves as a reminder that even the best players in the game look helpless from time to time. It also suggests that he’s bound to emerge from his doldrums sooner rather than later.

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As the scout quoted in Matz’s article says, Machado looks like he’s pressing right now. That’s natural in a player aiming to break out of a slump. Too often the overeagerness serves only to prolong the slump even more. It doesn’t help that the O’s as a whole have been faltering a bit recently, too. After a hot start, they’ve dropped into third place in the AL East.

Since this is his sixth season in the majors, it’s easy to forget just how young Machado still is. He turns 25 – yes, 25! – next month. After a pair of MVP-caliber campaigns the past two years, it’s hard not to view him as a seasoned veteran rather than a young player still susceptible to mistakes.

With both players set to enter free agency after the 2018 season, Manny Machado versus Bryce Harper debates have become increasingly common among baseball fans. Prior to this year, with Harper coming off a disappointing campaign, many would have likely taken Machado as a better all-around package. (To his credit, his defense hasn’t waned amid his issues at the plate.) Now the roles seem to have reversed.

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Perhaps this will be Machado’s “down” year before he comes roaring back next season to remind us what he’s capable of, similar to what Harper is doing now. Regardless, Machado has barely scratched the surface of his prime: He’s too good to hit this poorly for the entire summer.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

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