San Francisco Giants: Jeff Samardzija trade value has never been higher

With 2017 turning up roses for Jeff Samardzija and ragweed for the rest of the San Francisco Giants, trading the 32-year-old has never seemed more appropriate.

Jeff Samardzija‘s last start against the Brewers in Milwaukee was a gem. The San Francisco Giants hurler went 7 ⅔ innings, allowing two runs on six hits with no walks and 10 strikeouts. That performance marked the seventh time this season Samardzija has gone seven innings or more, and the second time this season he’s struck out 10 or more in a start.

Overall this season, Samardzija has been brilliant. He’s already contributed 2 WAR to the Giants’ abysmal efforts, has averaged a strikeout rate of nearly 11 per nine innings and a walk rate of less than two free passes per nine. Of his 12 starts on the season, seven have been Quality Starts, meaning he went at least six innings while giving up three or fewer runs.

If the Giants would ever consider trading Samardzija, who is signed through 2020, now is the time.

Think of the possible returns in a trade with the Chicago Cubs for Samardzija, a pitcher who, among qualified starters in all of Major League Baseball, is fifth in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). Or imagine the returns from a prospect-heavy team like the Washington Nationals or Boston Red Sox in a deal for Samardzija, who would give either team the eighth-ranked pitcher in WAR.

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What is supremely interesting about the righty, especially this season, is that he has been a little unlucky. Through nearly 80 innings this year, Samardzija is still sporting a .340 BABIP and 14 percent HR/FB rate. Both figures are not astronomical, but are still decidedly above league average, and might portend further regression to the mean.

In fact, he is the only pitcher in the top five of the league in FIP, whose commensurate xFIP—which is just FIP with BABIP and HR/FB held at league average to further eliminate luck—is lower than his mark in FIP. In xFIP, Samardzija ranks fourth in baseball, hot on the heels of Clayton Kershaw. While the rest of baseball’s best pitchers are hoping to stave off regression, it might actually make Samardzija better.

As mentioned earlier, according to Spotrac, Samardzija’s deal takes him through 2020, at a not-unreasonable $19.8 million a season. FanGraphs’ Dollars figure—remember that?—has Samardzija’s performance in each of the last three full seasons being worth more than $20 million, with 2017’s effort from the Notre Dame alum already worth more than $16 million on the free agent market.

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The Giants may be out of the NL West race—and they are, just accept it—but that doesn’t necessarily close their championship window. If Madison Bumgarner refrains from further off-field stupidity, trading Jeff Samardzija for blue-chip prospects can fling it wide open again.

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