Is it time for the Pittsburgh Pirates to change closers?

After back-to-back heartbreaking losses by the Pittsburgh Pirates, the team’s fans are calling for the head of closer Tony Watson.

One of the most demoralizing things in baseball is a blown save in the bottom of the ninth. It’s painful for the players on the field, the manager in the dugout and the fans in the stands. It’s the myth of Sisyphus on a baseball diamond.

According to Greek myth, Sisyphus was punished for all eternity to roll a rock up a mountain only to have it roll back down to the bottom when he reaches the top. In each of the last two days, the Pittsburgh Pirates have rolled the rock up the mountain only to see closer Tony Watson let it roll all the way back down to the bottom. In this case, the bottom of the NL Central, where the Pirates have been stuck most of the season.

On Tuesday, Watson allowed a game-tying, two-run homer to Jonathan Schoop in the bottom of the ninth. The Pirates went on to lose in 10 innings. The next day, he allowed a game-tying, two-run homer to Trey Mancini in the bottom of the ninth and the Pirates went on to lose in 11 innings.

Watson surely feels terrible about blowing back-to-back games and leaving the Pirates 5.5 games behind in the NL Central when they could have been 3.5 games out. The two recent blown saves run Watson’s season blown save total up to five. He’s 10-for-15 in save opportunities and his ERA is 4.44 (with a 5.76 FIP).

It’s not hard for Pirates fans to look at those five blown saves and think the team could easily be just a half-game out of first place right now. Thinking about what might have been is natural; it’s what humans do. We think back wistfully of the girl we didn’t ask out, the job we didn’t take, the adventure we didn’t embark upon. With one-third of the season in the rear view mirror, the Pittsburgh Pirates fan thinks, “If only Tony Watson hadn’t blown five saves, we’d be on the cusp of first place.”

The Tony Watson Experience is just the latest speed bump the Pirates have faced this year. Third baseman Jung Ho Kang has missed the entire season after being busted for multiple DUIs in Korea. His work visa has been denied and it’s unlikely that he’ll play at all this year. Outfielder Starling Marte played just two weeks before getting hit with an 80-game PED suspension. He won’t be back until July. Fellow outfielder Andrew McCutchen is just now starting to hit a little bit after beginning the season in a major funk.

Even with their assorted problems and the five blown saves, the Pirates are surprisingly in contention. The main reason for this lies with the mediocre play of the Chicago Cubs, who are just 30-28 and one game behind Milwaukee in the division. If the Cubs were on the 95-win pace most experts expected them to be, they would be 34-24 and the Pirates would be 8.5 games out of first.

After the back-to-back blown saves by Watson, Twitter lit up with angry Pirates fans demanding he be removed from the closer’s role. The Pirates have a seemingly ready replacement in Felipe Rivero, who was acquired from the Washington Nationals last year when the Pirates traded stud closer Mark Melancon at the trade deadline.

Rivero has been brilliant this year, with 32 strikeouts and six walks in 30 innings. He has an ERA of 0.60, which has some luck behind it, but his FIP is a still-good 2.59. It seems like an easy enough decision to have Rivero pitch the ninth inning rather than the seventh or eighth.

When it comes to this year’s Pirates, though, it’s not such an easy decision. As close as the team is to first place in the NL Central, it’s not realistic to think they can outplay the likely division winner, the Chicago Cubs, over the remaining two-thirds of the season. The Cubs are a better team. It’s not impossible, but unusual circumstances would have to happen for the Pirates to win the NL Central.

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The Wild Card looks even less likely because the Pirates are nine games behind the Diamondbacks and Dodgers and there are three other teams ahead of them and two tied with them. According to the FanGraphs Depth Charts, the Pirates are projected to finish 14 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central and 11 games behind the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card. They don’t look like legitimate contenders.

Projections are not perfect, of course. Fans can look at that 5.5-game deficit and think of the five blown saves and envision a team that makes the playoffs. Pirates management is likely going to be more realistic, with projections of their own. Changing closers from Watson to Rivero is moving deck chairs on the Titanic.

Before Watson’s blown save on Wednesday, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle was quoted in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette saying Watson would remain the closer. He acknowledged how well Rivero has been pitching and likened him to Andrew Miller, the terrific left-handed reliever who is used by Cleveland in high leverage situations whether they happen in the seventh or eighth inning (or even the fifth or sixth during the postseason).

Miller is Cleveland’s best reliever, but is not their closer. The Pirates currently prefer Rivero in the Andrew Miller role, and he has excelled in that spot. Limiting him to save situations in the ninth inning would be possibly counterproductive. The Pirates believe he is more valuable in his current role.

That still leaves the problem of the ninth inning. At this point, just seeing Tony Watson warm up in the bullpen has Pirates fans feeling nauseous. He has the highest ERA of his career, the highest WHIP of his career and the lowest strikeout percentage. He’s giving up more home runs than he ever has before.

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That being said, two weeks ago Watson had a 2.95 ERA. His worst pitching has come in his last five outings, when he’s picked up three of his five blown saves. This could be just a bad stretch, which happens to MLB players all the time. He’s projected to have a 3.72 ERA and 1.26 WHIP going forward. Before Wednesday’s outing, Hurdle still had faith in him. When the next save opportunity arises, we’ll find out if he still does.