A Look At the #2 Overall Picks in the MLB Draft in the 2000s

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Adam Johnson, RHP, Minnesota Twins, -1.1 bWAR

The Twins actually drafted Johnson twice, selecting him in the 25th round in 1997 out of high school in San Diego before he went to Cal State-Fullerton and became the #2 overall selection.

Johnson signed quickly, allowing him to make 13 appearances and throw 69 1/3 innings with high-A Fort Myers in the Florida State League for the Twins organization, making a good impression with a 2.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 20/92 BB/K ratio. That excellent performance along with his draft pedigree had him ranked as the #41 prospect in the game going into 2001.

Johnson worked his way all the way to his major league debut in his first full professional season, starting with AA New Britain, before making a short stop at AAA Edmonton before heading to the Twins. His major league debut wasn’t pretty, but still, his quick ascension to the big leagues had him rated the #85 prospect in the game.

Johnson struggled to keep the ball in the park in 2002 in AAA, allowing 25 home runs in 151 1/3 innings. His major league call up in 2003 would be his last major league experience, as Johnson spent the majority of 2003 and 2004 with the Twins AAA club in Rochester.

The Twins released Johnson in January of 2005. The Diamondbacks signed him, but they also released him at the end of spring training, and he could not find work, landing in the Mexican League and then with an independent league before the Oakland Athletics signed him to their AAA team in August of 2005. He opened the next season with Oakland’s organization, but was cute in June of 2006.

After no noted professional baseball in 2007, Johnson spent two more seasons in independent ball in 2008 and 2009, struggling heavily. He last pitched for an affiliated team in the Oakland organization at age 26.

Mark Prior, RHP, Chicago Cubs 16.5 bWAR

Prior was drafted in the first round twice, by the Yankees in 1998 out of high school in San Diego, and then 2nd overall by the Cubs out of USC. Prior was highly regarded as one of the best collegiate pitchers to have come into the game in many years when he was drafted, and he was expected to do big things, as noted by the fact that without even throwing a professional pitch, he was ranked the #2 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America.

He made a big impression right away, spending only 9 games in the minor leagues before coming up to the major leagues, where he was quite impressive as a rookie, making 19 starts, throwing 116 2/3 innings with a 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a dominating 38/147 BB/K ratio.

Prior paired with fellow young fireballer Kerry Wood to lead the Cubs to the doorstep of the World Series in 2003 as he went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 40/245 BB/K ratio over 211 1/3 innings. He also threw 23 1/3 innings in the postseason that year, with a 2.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

Many felt that his heavy usage in those first two seasons was detrimental to Prior, and he began to have arm issues in 2004. He made 21 starts in 2004 and 27 starts in 2005, and never made 10 starts again in the major leagues after 2006.

After major surgery and some issues recovering from that surgery, Prior went from 2006 to 2010 without throwing a professional pitch. He did have a come back that lasted a few seasons as a reliever, but he never made it higher than AAA. He was 25 when he made his last major league appearance.

In his short career, he was an All Star in 2003, finished 3rd in the 2003 Cy Young voting, and finished 9th in the 2003 MVP voting. In his career, he had a 3.51 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and a 223/757 BB/K ratio over 657 innings.

Melvin Upton, Jr., SS, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 16.2 bWAR

Incredibly athletic, Upton was a big time prospect when he was drafted by the Rays out of high school in Virginia. Without having even played a professional game, he was already ranked the #21 prospect in all of baseball.

His first full season, he opened with low-A Charleston, but was doing so well there that the Rays bumped him up to AA Orlando. Just 18, he was ranked the #2 overall prospect in baseball, and big things were expected from the young shortstop.

The AA team moved to Montgomery in 2004, and that’s where Upton opened his season, moving quickly to AAA Durham, without finding a whole lot of resistance along the way, leading to his promotion in August to the major league club, where he acquitted himself fairly well.

Upton spent all of 2005 in AAA, where it became clear that shortstop was not to be his future position as he made 53 errors at the position on the season. He worked at third base in 2006 at Durham and then with Tampa Bay once he was promoted for another extended look.

In 2007, Upton was up to stay, hitting .300/.386/.508 with 24 home runs and 22 stolen bases for the Rays. He followed that up with 5 seasons where he averaged 18 home runs, 39 stolen bases, and a 104 OPS+ from 2008-2012 as Tampa Bay went from an also-ran in the AL East to one of the leading teams in the division.

He became a free agent after that 2012 season, and he signed a big contract with the Atlanta Braves to be their center fielder. His brother, Justin Upton, was acquired by the Braves as well, and along with talented right fielder Jason Heyward, the Braves looked to have an explosive offensive outfield trio. Melvin, however, didn’t hold up his end of the bargain, hitting just .198/.279/.314 while striking out in over 35% of his plate appearances.

The Braves packaged Upton’s contract along with closer Craig Kimbrel in a trade to the San Diego Padres. Upton had a bit of a revival to his career in 2016, but struggled mightily with Toronto after he left San Diego at the trade deadline and could not find work this winter and hasn’t played a major or minor league game in 2017.

Over his career, Upton has hit .243/.321/.402 with 164 home runs and 300 stolen bases over 12 seasons.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers, 11.7 bWAR

Considered one of the best contact hitters to come out of the draft in recent years, the Brewers selected Rickie Weeks out of Southern University in 2003. He moved quickly, playing just 21 minor league games before he had a 7 game audition with the major league team.

Weeks was ranked the #5 overall prospect in baseball by Baseball America before the 2004 season. He spent all of 2004 with the Brewers’ AA club in Huntsville, showing excellent plate discipline. He dropped ever so slightly in rankings, moving down to the #8 overall prospect in Baseball America rankings.

In 2005, Weeks split his season between Nashville and the big league club. Weeks has struggled with health over his career, and that has affected his dynamic athleticism along with his smooth right handed stroke out of college.

Weeks has only had two seasons where he’s played over 130 games in his career due to injuries. He had probably his best season in 2010, when he hit .269/.366/.464 with 32 doubles, 29 home runs, and 11 stolen bases. The following season he made his only All Star appearance of his career.

Over his career, he’s hit .246/.344/.420 with 161 home runs and 132 stolen bases over 14 seasons.

Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals, 32.5 bWAR

Gordon was widely considered the best hitter to come out of the University of Nebraska when he was selected #2 overall by the Kansas City Royals in 2005. He went to the Arizona Fall League after signing and showed fairly well against the best prospects in baseball, hitting .260/.403/.460. Baseball America ranked him as the #13 prospect in baseball.

Gordon played with the Royals’ AA affiliate in 2006 all season, hitting .325/.427/.588 with 39 doubles, 29 home runs, and 22 stolen bases. He was widely regarded as a future impact player, ranking as the #2 prospect with BA and the #1 prospect with Baseball Prospectus.

Gordon got off to a rather rocky start to his career, struggling defensively at third base and not hitting well from 2007-2009. A major injury in 2009 caused him to move to the outfield, where he found himself to be naturally gifted in left field defensively.

Gordon’s return to the major leagues from injury went much better offensively as well, as he combined to hit .298/.372/.478 with a 132 OPS+, 96 doubles, 37 home runs, and 27 stolen bases over 2011 and 2012.

Gordon has settled in as the Royals’ team leader and best defender, going to three All Star games (2013-2015), winning four Gold Gloves (2011-2014), and winning the AL Platinum Glove in 2014.

Over 11 seasons in the major leagues, all with the Royals, Gordon has slashed .261/.343/.422 with 152 home runs and 90 stolen bases.

Greg Reynolds, RHP, Colorado Rockies, -1.6 bWAR

Widely considered the draft that broke that draft system, the 2006 draft saw multiple teams duck the best player in their draft slot due to signing demands, often not even high demands. One of those cases was with Greg Reynolds, drafted 2nd by the Rockies.

Reynolds by no means was unqualified as a first round selection, with a fastball that could flash mid-90s and some feel for a curve and change, but he was much too inconsistent to be locked in as a #2 type of pick.

Baseball America saw that as well. After being drafted #2 and putting up a solid performance in high-A in his pro debut in his draft season, he was still only rated as the #76 overall prospect in baseball.

Reynolds struggled with injury in 2007, and he never got back that top end velocity after that. While he showed good control of his stuff in AAA in 2008 and earned hiw way to the big leagues, he’d spend most of the next 5 years in AAA rotations, making it back to the big leagues in 2011 with the Rockies and then with the Reds in 2013. He last threw in professional baseball in 2016 with the Padres AAA club after three seasons out of American baseball.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals, 10.5 bWAR

The Royals selected Moustakas’ powerful bat out of high school in California as he was widely regarded as the best power hitter in the entire draft. After hitting .293/.383/.439 for Idaho Falls, Baseball America had him ranked as the #18 prospect in the game and Baseball Prospectus had him ranked #19.

He showed his power at low-A Burlington in the Midwest League in his first full season, hitting .272/.337/.468 with 22 home runs and keeping his strikeout rate at a reasonable rate. He was rated as high as #13 (Baseball America) in prospect rankings after that first season.

Moustakas struggled with contact in high-A, and while the power was still there, he hit .250/.297/.421, and that led to him dropping significantly down prospect rankings, though he was still in the top 100 in both major services at the time.

After a swing adjustment, he really exploded in AA and AAA in 2010. He hit .322/.369/.630 combined with 41 doubles and 36 home runs between the two levels. This rocketed Moustakas back up into the top ten in prospect rankings, having him as the #9 prospect with Baseball America and #7 with Baseball Prospectus.

Moustakas reached the majors in 2011 after a half season in AAA. He took over at third base in 2012, and while he struggled to access both his power and contact, he played a solid defensive third base and held down the position as the Royals grew into contenders.

His best season was in the championship season in 2015 for the Royals, when he hit .284/.348/.470 with 34 doubles and 22 home runs. He had made a big of a swing adjustment last season to allow him to tap into even more power before a horrific knee injury ended his season in late May. Healthy again in 2017, he’s shown that power to be explosive, hitting .271/.314/.533 with 15 home runs in just 53 games, challenging for the major league lead in home runs.

Moustakas was an All Star in 2015. He has totaled .249/.304/.414 over his career with 96 home runs.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates, 5.9 bWAR

Drafted by the Boston Red Sox out of high school in the 14th round, Alvarez instead chose to attend Vanderbilt University. The Pirates made him the 2nd overall draft pick in the 2008 draft.

Considered an advanced hitter in college, Alvarez was expected to move quickly to the major leagues. Without even taking a professional at bat, Alvarez was rated the #12 prospect in baseball by Baseball America and the #4 prospect by Baseball Prospectus.

His 2009 season did little to dissuade those who believed in Alvarez, as he combined to hit .288/.378/.535 between high-A and AA in the Pirates system with 32 doubles and 27 home runs. BA jumped Alvarez to the #8 prospect in the game, and BP moved him to #6.

After roughly half a season in AAA, Alvarez made his way to the major leagues in 2010. He flashed his big power, but he also showed a high tendency to strike out at the major league level.

That strikeout propensity led to a demotion midway through the 2011 season as Alvarez struggled after winning the opening day third base job in Pittsburgh. He eventually worked his way back up to the major leagues that season, but finished with a batting average under .200 on the season.

Alvarez posted back to back 30 home run seasons in 2012 and 2013, but he had added weight in his pro career, forcing a move across the diamond from third base to first base. Alvarez has become an ideal platoon mate, and the Orioles sent him out this way in 2016, leading to one of his most productive seasons on a per-appearance basis, as he hit .249/.322/.504 with 22 home runs in just 376 plate appearances.

After struggling to find a major league contract this winter, Alvarez resigned with the Orioles on a minor league deal, and he’s been working in the outfield in AAA, hoping to earn time at corner infield and corner outfield at the major league level down the stretch. Unfortunately, Alvarez is hitting only .227/.301/.445 in AAA as of this writing.

Alvarez was selected to the 2013 All Star game and won the NL Silver Slugger in the same year as he led the National League in home runs in 2013. Over his career, he has hit .238/.311/.449 with 153 home runs.

Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners, 8.1 bWAR

Coming out of North Carolina, Ackley was considered one of the most advanced college hitters available, a guy who could impact the major leagues quickly. The Mariners sent Ackley to the Arizona Fall League with some of the best prospects in the game in his draft year, and he showed well, hitting .315/.412/.425. Baseball America ranked him as the #11 prospect in the game, and Baseball Prospectus had him as the #12 prospect in the game.

He opened his professional career with AA West Tennessee and moved up to AAA Tacoma. Overall, he hit .267/.368/.407. He then hit even better in a return trip to the Arizona Fall League, hitting .424/.581/.758 in 20 games. This finish kept Ackley high on the prospect lists in spite of his middling season, ranked #12 on BA and #25 on BP.

Ackley spent half the season in AAA with Tacoma and hit well enough to earn a promotion to Seattle to make his major league debut in 2011, roughly two years to the day after he was drafted. Ackley hit well in his first big league exposure, going .273/.348/.417.

Soon, however, it became clear that Ackley’s lack of any secondary skills beyond his contact ability was going to make it difficult for him to sustain success at the big league level. His defense at second base was also not major league quality, which put more pressure on the bat, pressure he couldn’t live up to.

Never hitting more than .275, hitting 30 doubles, or hitting even 15 home runs was not a good combination for what amounted to a corner outfielder, and Ackley found himself as a bench piece for the Mariners until he was traded to the Yankees in 2015, where he served as a left-handed bench bat. The Yankees released him after 2016, and he signed a minor league contract with the Angels, where he’s currently playing in AAA.

On his career, Ackley has hit .241/.304/.367 with 46 home runs and 31 stolen bases in 635 games.

Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, 3.2 bWAR

A long road for Taillon was made even longer recently for Taillon, and he’s become a guy that even if you’re not a Pirate fan, you’re beginning to cheer for him to have success.

Taillon was a traditional big Texan right-hander, with a big fastball and excellent breaking stuff. The Pirates selected him #2 in 2010, and his advanced control and plus stuff had him ranked as the #11 prospect with Baseball America and #8 prospect with Baseball Prospectus without ever having thrown a professional pitch.

His advanced stuff allowed him to move quickly, starting out immediately at low-A West Virginia in his first professional season in 2011. He followed that by throwing at high-A and AA successfully in 2012 and AA and AAA in 2013. He headed to the Arizona Fall League on track to make his major league debut at some point in 2014, but then his elbow popped.

Taillon missed two full seasons as he had Tommy John surgery and struggled to return from the surgery, with other injury and further issues with the elbow. Her persevered and made it back to the mound last season with AAA Indianapolis, eventually working his way to his major league debut, where he made a very favorable impression over 18 starts, throwing 104 innings, with a 3.38 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 17/85 BB/K ratio.

Taillon opened the 2017 season well over six starts before he had to leave the mound, finding testicular cancer and requiring treatment. He’s returned to the mound recently and should be back to the major leagues soon, and his work back from so many struggles with an excellent attitude is to be lauded for certain.

On his MLB career thus far, he’s made 24 starts, throwing 139 1/3 innings, with a 3.36 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 30/115 BB/K ratio.

Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners, no major league experience

Hultzen was drafted by the Diamondbacks out of high school in 2008 in the 10th round, but chose instead to go to college, and it worked well for him as he came out of the University of Virginia as the #2 overall pick for the Mariners in 2011.

Hultzen threw 6 times in the Arizona Fall League in his draft season, and he impressed, with a 1.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a 5/18 BB/K over 19 1/3 innings. The pre-draft pedigree and his AFL performance led to him being ranked the #21 prospect by Baseball America, #16 prospect by MLB Pipeline, and #35 prospect by Baseball Prospectus.

In 2012, he came out of the gate throwing elite at AA, with a 1.19 ERA and 79 K’s in 75 1/3 innings before being promoted to AAA, and the PCL ate him alive to the tune of a 5.92 ERA, though he still was able to strike out plenty of hitters, leading to an overall season line of 124 innings, a 3.05 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and a 75/136 BB/K ratio.

2013 was the beginning of the end for Hultzen. He opened the season in AAA, throwing very well. Then he began having shoulder issues.

With pitchers, elbow issues are not guaranteed returns for pitchers, but they are typically more predictable than shoulder injuries, which are much more difficult to have a return back to previous form for the pitcher.

Hultzen left the mound in 2013, and he didn’t return at all until 2015. He made another appearance in 2016 with the rookie league team of the Mariners, attempting to come back. He was granted free agency after the season and is currently a free agent.

Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins, 3.0 bWAR

An absolutely elite athlete coming out of the Georgia prep ranks, Buxton was considered by many the best overall prospect in the 2012 draft, and the Twins paid Buxton the biggest bonus of the 2012 draft, so he was certainly paid accordingly as the top prospect of the draft.

Buxton’s raw tools were certainly on display in his pro debut as well, as he hit .248/.344/.448 between the GCL and Appy League in his draft season. His draft pedigree and initial performance led Baseball America to rank him #10 overall, MLB Pipeline to rank him #19 overall, and Baseball Prospectus to rank him #8 overall in their prospect rankings.

Buxton had the 2013 that flashed all those amazing tools. He hit .334/.424/.520 with 19 doubles, 18 triples, 12 home runs, and 55 stolen bases. He then played in the Arizona Fall League as a teenager, hitting .212/.288/.404, but certainly flashing plenty of tools. He was the consensus #1 prospect across all three major services after the season.

Buxton struggled with injury in 2014, including one of the most brutal outfield collisions you’ll never want to see. That limited him to just 31 games, and while he made a trip to the Arizona Fall League to get some reps after he was healthy, he was coming off of a severe concussion and was still struggling to get right in the field. Ranking services didn’t knock him for the injuries, however, as he stayed #1 with MLB and BP and dropped just to #2 with BA.

Buxton again struggled with minor injuries in 2015 that kept him from truly being on the field, but when he was, he produced a combined line between AA/AAA of .305/.367/.500 with 13 triples, 7 home runs, and 22 stolen bases in just 72 games in the minors before he was called up to the majors to make his debut.

Buxton was handed the center field job in Minnesota on opening day in 2016, but a tremendous issue with strikeouts got him sent down to the minor leagues at the end of April for a month, and then at the beginning of August for another month. He returned in September absolutely killing the ball, posting a month of .287/.357/.653, with 9 home runs.

He had hoped to spin that success in September into 2017, but so far, it’s been much the same, as Buxton has struggled with his strikeouts (though he has shown a much better walk rate than any other major league time).

Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs, 15.7 bWAR

A teammate of Bryce Harper growing up, Bryant was selected out of high school in Vegas in the 18th round of the 2010 draft. The Cubs made him the 2nd overall selection in 2013 after absolutely destroying balls at the University of San Diego.

The Cubs immediately got Bryant work, sending him to the Arizona Rookie League, then to the Northwest League, and then to their high-A team in the Florida State League. Over 36 games, he hit .336/.390/.688 with 9 home runs before going to the Arizona Fall League, where he absolutely crushed the ball, hitting .364/.457/.727 with 6 home runs over 20 games. That performance had Bryant ranked the #8 overall prospect by Baseball America, #9 by MLB Pipeline, and #17 by Baseball Prospectus.

Bryant tore through AA/AAA with a .325/.438/.661 line with 34 doubles and 43 home runs. While Bryant showed some clear strikeout tendencies, he was certainly one of the best hitters in all of the minor leagues, and he was ranked as such, rated #1 by BA, #2 by MLB, and #5 by BP.

After a week with AAA, Bryant was brought up to the Cubs in 2015. He hit .275/.369/.488 with 31 doubles, 26 home runs, and 13 stolen bases. Bryant followed that up by taking the step up to superstar with a .292/.385/.554 season with 35 doubles and 39 home runs.

Bryant has made the All Star team both of his seasons. He was the 2015 National League Rookie of the Year, and followed that up with a near-unanimous National League MVP in 2016. Bryant has hit .268/.387/.540 this season with 14 home runs. His first two seasons, he had walk rates around 11% and strikeout rates of 30% and 22%. This year he’s taken those numbers up a notch, to an 18% walk rate and 19% strikeout rate.

Tyler Kolek, RHP, Miami Marlins, no major league experience

A big right-handed pitcher from Texas with a huge fastball that could clear 100 MPH, Kolek was selected by the Marlins, in spite of many evaluators having significant questions about his profile – whether he had anything other than the fastball, along with the straight-ness of the fastball.

Kolek came out and threw 22 innings his draft year, showing that big fastball, but also a lack of command and lack of secondary pitches. That led to Kolek ranking #52 with Baseball America and #27 with MLB Pipeline and not ranking at all with Baseball Prospectus.

Kolek moved up to low-A Greensboro in his first full season in 2015. He had made 25 starts and had a 4.56 ERA and 1.56 WHIP with a 61/81 BB/K ratio before his elbow gave him issues and he had Tommy John surgery before the 2016 season.

Initially expected to make his debut in mid-May 2017, Kolek has still not been activated to any of the Marlins minor league teams, though no news of any official issues/set backs has been announced, so Marlins fans have to be on a wait-and-see attitude at this point.

Alex Bregman, SS, Houston Astros, 2.2 bWAR

The Red Sox drafted Bregman out of high school in the 29th round of the 2012 draft, but he chose instead to go to LSU, where he showed very well, becoming the second overall selection in 2015 to the Houston Astros.

The Astros started Bregman with their low-A Midwest League team, and he eventually moved up to high-A Lancaster in the Cal League. Combined, he hit .294/.366/.415 in 66 games. That, along with his draft pedigree, had Bregman ranked as the #42 prospect by Baseball America, #22 prospect with MLB Pipeline, and #39 prospect with Baseball Prospectus.

For a spell in 2016, all you heard about in minor league baseball coverage was how Bregman was tearing the cover off the ball. He opened the season with Corpus Christi in the Texas League, and he hit .297/.415/.559 with 16 doubles, 14 home runs, and an astounding 42/26 BB/K ratio before being promoted to AAA Fresno. Granted, it’s the Pacific Coast League, but .333/.373/.641 is incredible no matter where you do it, as Bregman added another 6 home runs to his ledger. All told, Bregman hit .306/.406/.580 over 80 minor league games with 22 doubles, 20 home runs, 7 stolen bases, and a crazy 47/38 BB/K ratio before being called up to the major leagues at the end of July.

After a slow start, Bregman finished with a fury for the Astros, ending up with a .264/.313/.478 line with 13 doubles and 8 home runs over 49 games. However, Bregman hit .323/.344/.629 in September to finish the season to get to those numbers, so he finished strong.

Many felt his strong finish was going to indicate a strong start to 2017, but that wasn’t the case as Bregman didn’t have a single home run in April, sporting a .650 OPS. His bat came alive more in May, however, and he seems to be on track to once again put up a solid season for the Astros.

Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds, no major league experience

Nick Senzel was the clear top college hitter in the 2016 draft, and with a plethora of high school options around them, the Reds chose to go with the more “sure thing” at #2 with Senzel out of the University of Tennessee.

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Senzel was put into the Reds advanced rookie league initially, but he moved quickly to the Reds’ low-A team in Dayton. Combined, he hit .305/.398/.514 over 68 games with 24 doubles, 7 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 38/54 BB/K ratio.

His draft pedigree along with that stellar performance out of the gate had him ranked the #9 prospect in baseball with Baseball America, #26 with MLB Pipeline, and #20 with Baseball Prospectus.

Many speculated that Senzel may be assigned to the Reds’ AA affiliate to open 2017, but instead, he opened the season with Daytona in the Florida State League. Thus far on the season, he’s posted a .306/.369/.466 line with 21 doubles, 4 home runs, and 9 stolen bases.

Senzel is expected to move to AA soon after the Florida State League All-Star game.

Next: Mock Draft Version 6.1

We’ll take a look at the #1 picks tomorrow in preparation for Monday’s draft!