MLB: 2017’s Best Player Values at Each Position Ranked
For now, it’s safe to assume that hot starts are translating into consistent play across breakout campaigns in MLB.
Already well into June, most of the players on this list haven’t been streaky as much as they’ve been steady and productive on a day-to-day basis.
By the end of April, fans were raving about Milwaukee’s Eric Thames‘ hot start to 2017. And rightfully so. He hit .345-11-19 in 24 games for the Brew Crew that month.
After spending 2013-16 in the Korean Baseball Organization with the NC Dinos (and becoming a superstar over there, might I add, having hit .348 with 124 HRs and 382 RBI across three seasons), Thames returned to MLB this year upon signing a three-year, $16 million deal with the Brewers in the offseason.
The first baseman has since come back down to earth. From May 1 to present, his average has dipped to .267 and he’s hit only five home runs. His scorching first month still keeps him in the top 10 among MLB players at his position in HRs, OPS and wRC+, but not much else. You have to take the good with the bad, too, as Thames is 7th worst amongst first basemen in MLB with a 24.6 K%. He’s also a power bat with only 11 RBI since May 1 and home runs account for more than half (57%) of his extra base hits.
The 30-year-old’s $4 million salary this year will likely still be a bargain come September, but there’s bigger value to be had at first base right now.
RHP Lance McCullers – HOU
2017 salary: $548,000
fWAR: 2.0
There are a few MLB players still hurling on their “rookie contracts” to consider here. Michael Fulmer (2.2 fWAR) of the Tigers is one. So too is Robbie Ray (1.9 fWAR) of the D-backs. Chase Anderson (1.8 fWAR) of the Brewers deserves mention here too, though he’s in arbitration years and commands a $2.45 million salary this season.
However, no guy is having a bigger impact on his club from within the rotation than Lance McCullers Jr. More so now than ever with ace Dallas Keuchel on the disabled list for the second time this season, it’s tough to deny McCullers’s value towards baseball’s best team.
The Houston Astros have rode him to a 6-1 record so far. That’s better than Fulmer (6-4) and Ray (6-3) and his ERA of 2.58 and FIP of 2.87 put him among the six best starting pitchers in league in both categories. Only Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer have better FIPs. That’s impressive company.
McCullers’ K/9 of 10.45 also more than holds its own as a starting pitcher in the league and he’s surrendered only six long balls across 13 starts, tied for the third least amongst qualified starting pitchers in 2017.
C Martin Maldonado – LAA
2017 salary: $1,725,000
fWAR: 1.2
Before changing the filter results at fangraphs.com from qualified to a minimum of only 150 plate appearances, only seven catchers showed up on the list. But the truth is, 30-year-old Martin Maldonado is having a better season for the Angels than four of the names on the previous list.
In 185 PAs, Maldonado has a healthy .270/.339/.405 slash line to go along with 5 HRs and 17 RBI.
He’s not doing anything overly special, especially given his age and service time. But then again, the Angels aren’t paying him Russell Martin-like money ($20MM) this season for a .223 BA with 5 HRs and 11 RBI.
Los Angeles isn’t even paying Maldonado the league average for his position in 2017, which registers at $2.195 million.
From a defensive standpoint, he’s ranked the eighth best catcher in MLB according to fangraphs. Maldonado’s .998 FPCT goes well with his 38% caught stealing rate, both two of the better numbers in the league at his position.
Without Mike Trout in the Angels’ batting order, the club struggles even more to turn the lineup over in games. Despite having registered the second most innings behind the plate in MLB this year, Maldonado has only the eighth most plate appearances for catchers.
1B Justin Smoak – TOR
2017 salary: $4,125,000
fWAR: 1.6
It’s not Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki or even Kendrys Morales who has been the Toronto Blue Jays’ MVP so far this season. That honor and the club’s outright most deserving hitter of an All-Star roster spot in 2017 goes to first baseman Justin Smoak.
The former top prospect has flourished with a full-time role left vacant by Edwin Encarnacion‘s departure. A switch-hitter, Smoak has been tearing the cover off the ball and is more of an asset defensively to Toronto than his predecessor was as well.
Many Jays fans scoffed last year when Smoak’s new contract was announced. They became even more embittered when Edwin signed with Cleveland for three years and $60 million in the offseason, who is set to earn $14,666,666 in base salary this year. His current slash line of .240/.349/.425 with only 11 homers and 24 RBI proves that he’s having a tough time adjusting to a new team and home ballpark.
But the signing of Smoak to a two year extension with a club option in 2019 is making Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins look like very savvy businessmen indeed. He leads his position in home runs, is 5th in RBI and has a very nice .291/.356/.593 slash line.
Colorado’s Mark Reynolds ($1.5MM) deserves some consideration here too. He’s having a career year hitting in MLBs most favorable hitter’s park in a stacked lineup. But it’s by no means a breakout performance. 30+ homers and 80+ RBI are milestones Reynolds has reached multiple times before in his career. To date, Smoak has never hit more than 20 round trippers or driven in more than 60 runners in a season. He’s a far bigger surprise.
2B Jonathan Schoop – BAL
2017 salary: $3,475,000
fWAR: 1.0
Jonathan Schoop has been one of the more underrated players at his position for awhile now. the 25-year-old is in his fourth full big league season and last year he very quietly did some special things.
Schoop played in all 162 of Baltimore’s games in 2016. He hit a career high 25 home runs, drove in 82 and finished third on his team in total bases ahead of All-Stars like Adam Jones and Chris Davis, who combined will make over $33 million in 2017 salaries.
This time around, Schoop currently leads the club with a .286 average, an .863 OPS and 33 RBI. By many accounts, his O’s are having a down year in terms of offensive production. Even still, Schoop is leading the way on a roster flush with talent. Manny Machado is arguably the best third baseman in baseball, Mark Trumbo is last year’s AL home run champion, and then of course there’s the aforementioned Jones and Davis.
Schoop is well on pace to set new career bests in home runs and runs batted in if he stays healthy. He presently ranks 6th at his position in wRC+ at 127, ahead of names like Robinson Cano, Brian Dozier and Ian Kinsler.
3B Miguel Sano – MIN
2017 salary: $572,500
fWAR: 2.8
After a disappointing sophomore campaign hitting .236-25-66, Twins third baseman Miguel Sano has been raking to far in 2017.
Upstart Minnesota has been riding his and Ervin Santana‘s success en route to first place in the AL Central standings. Sano has supplied most of the firepower, accounting for a wRC+ mark of 166, the 7th best output so far this year in MLB.
He’s currently second in RBI at his position to Jake Lamb, Arizona’s third baseman who also deserves some consideration in this spot. Lamb is making 800 dollars more in salary this season, though his fWAR mark is lesser at 2.0, as are his BA of .281 and OPS of .953. Sano’s sits at .301 and 1.006, respectively.
Sano’s BABIP is a ridiculous .457 right now and there is no way he maintains that without seeing a dip in his production. But the deciding factor here is Lamb had a pretty solid season in 2016 that could easily be considered a breakout performance with a .249-29-91 line.
Sano right now is playing MVP caliber baseball at the dish and he should start for the American League in the ASG at 3B, if he doesn’t enter a nasty cold spell before July rolls around.
SS Zack Cozart – CIN
2017 salary: $5,325,000
fWAR: 3.2
Yeah yeah, Carlos Correa is only making around 500K this season and has been on fire lately and is a franchise player and potentially a generational talent. But, he was supposed to be all of the above. No one ever doubted his skillset or thought he would be a bust. One day, he will be the highest paid player at his position. Probably very soon.
But the fact remains, Zack Cozart is having an unbelievable 2017. Xander Bogaerts‘ second ranked 2.2 fWAR at the position is a full point below Cozart’s, whose batting average is second in MLB to only Ryan Zimmerman. His OBP (.427) ranks 7th and he’s 9th in bases on balls.
Cozart, 31, wasn’t able to stay healthy in 2015 or 2016, and that appears to be the difference maker right now. He’s only a career .254 hitter, so there might be some drop off in the months ahead. But right now, the shortstop is only making about $3MM above the league average salary at his position, yet by a number of metrics is the best one in the league.
Even Spotrac’s analysis agrees, which ranks players in real time based on their earnings and a “production points” system, placing him ahead of Correa and all others at the position.
LF Corey Dickerson – TBR
2017 salary: $3,025,000 fWAR: 2.4
Dickerson has bounced back after a disappointing 2016 and is proving that his bat was not just a hot commodity because he used to play home games with Coors Field effect behind him. He’s been the AL’s best leadoff hitter, if not overall hitter, so far this season.
The Rays have benefited greatly from his league leading 81 hits and his 146 total bases, which both rank first in the AL. He’s split his time between DH and LF and has made the most of it both ways, with a .311 BA while playing in the outfield and registering a .342 clip when handling DH duties. His fWAR ranks 7th amongst all outfielders, one spot ahead of Michael Conforto, another left fielder worthy of occupying this slot.
CF Charlie Blackmon – COL
2017 salary: $7,300,000 fWAR: 2.5
He might look like a caveman, but he’s hitting like Teddy Ballgame these days. On a club full of talent when it comes to scoring runs, Blackmon is putting together a legitimate case for NL MVP right now. This might be his first 20-20 season if he keeps things up.
The Rockies would probably like to see him swipe more bags (he had 43 in 2015 and only has 5 right now), but with so much depth hitting behind him in his leadoff spot, they just need him to get on base and continue running them with a high IQ. He’s fourth in fWAR for outfielders and leads all of them with 52 RBI — a true feat for a player hitting in the one spot.
Don’t quote me on this, but I don’t think a leadoff hitter has ever led the NL or AL in runs batted in. Blackmon is currently in second behind Jake Lamb. Darrin Erstad’s 100 RBI in 2000 for the Angels is the most ever by a leadoff hitter in a single season. Blackmon is currently on pace to crush that. This could become an all-time feat for the 30-year-old veteran if he does not regress.
RF Aaron Judge – NYY
2017 salary: $544,500 fWAR: 3.2
Not much to be said here. He’s been one of baseball’s best hitters to date this year. Scouts and personnel knew Aaron Judge had power in the range of Giancarlo Stanton, but few people thought he would hit for average like he’s done so far in 2017.
He’s a major reason the New York Yankees are relevant this season and his robust fWAR ranks third among all MLB hitters after only Mike Trout and Zack Cozart. Judge hit only .179 in 27 games from a year ago. His K% of 29.3 is still quite high this season, but it’s nowhere near 2016’s putrid mark of 44.2%. That alone has clearly done wonders for his game.
RHP Corey Knebel – MIL
2017 salary: $538,900
fWAR: 1.4
Rare as it is, the Brewers’ new closer, Corey Knebel, was actually a full-time closer during his collegiate career with the University of Texas Longhorns. Thus, he was drafted as a closer and since taking over for Neftali Feliz as the primary closer, he looks destined to stay there and assume the role for the foreseeable future.
He has transitioned seamlessly from setup man to shut down man. His fWAR ranks 5th amongst all MLB relievers with an ERA of 1.15 that ranks 12th. Then there’s his K/9 of 16.37, which is bested by only Craig Kimbrel and Dellin Betances.
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Knebel has blown three saves in 11 opportunities, but the 25-year-old has still been lights out. As a setup man, his ERA was 1.00 with a BAA of .164. Since taking over full-time closer duties for Milwaukee, his ERA is 1.35 with a BAA of .111. He’s not going anywhere and right now, neither are the first place Brewers, who are 2.5 games on the Cubs in the NL Central.