Chicago Cubs: John Lackey may be done
Chicago Cubs right-hander John Lackey might be finished as a starting pitcher.
It’s tough to admit defeat, in any regard. Whether at the poker table, in business, or in a competition, conceding defeat is one of the toughest prospects all people face. The Chicago Cubs may need to admit defeat on John Lackey.
After another start in which Lackey gave up four runs before exiting the game, this one coming against the Mets, taking the long view on John Lackey doesn’t yield a promising picture for the Chicago Cubs.
The 38-year-old Lackey has made 13 starts in 2017 for the Cubs, and only a handful of them can be described as “good.” On the year, Lackey is averaging more than one home run allowed per start. Not per nine innings, mind you, per start. In fact, only twice this year has Lackey started and exited a game without surrendering a big fly. In exactly half of his starts so far this year, he has given up multiple homers.
Even more concerning is that there is no pendulum swing awaiting Lackey’s numbers in the form of regression to the mean. His season BABIP is .294, the rate at which he leaves runners on base is 74 percent, both right in line with league average. His HR/FB rate sits at 21 percent, which is above average but not unheard of.
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In fact, it would take an active streak of good luck in order to turn Lackey’s stat line around, as right now his 5.26 ERA and 5.53 FIP rest generally on the laurels of average luck.
Lackey’s struggles may be rooted in a loss of fastball velocity, which is hard to explain away as passing in a 38-year-old body. According to PITCHf/x, the average velocity of Lackey’s two-seam fastball is down more than 1.5 miles per hour, now down to an even 90 mph. Consequently, Lackey has been throwing his four-seam fastball more often, which itself is down nearly an entire mile per hour.
Slower and straighter is no way to go through life in the MLB, son.
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John Lackey may very well be finished as a major league pitcher, and it is times for the Cubs to seriously consider moving on from the feisty hurler, because his efforts in demise will only hinder a postseason bid.