MLB: AL Rookie of the Year candidates
By Jim Turvey
The “Traditionalists Candidate” (Matt Davidson)
Davidson is among the lower tier of AL rookies if we look at some of the more advanced metrics, but if voters are simply looking for the Triple Crown stats, he’s among the top tier of AL rookies. His 12 home runs rank second to only Judge, while his 33 RBI are tied for third. His batting average is a far cry from the top of the leaderboard (.245), but he is playing almost every day and has the tell-tale signs of a player who will finish way higher in the vote than he probably should by true value.
His on-base percentage of .291 and negative defensive value will drive more analytical fans away from his player page, as will his 0.15 BB/K ratio.
Davidson is also getting quite lucky, as nearly a quarter of his fly balls are leaving the yard right now (23.5 percent HR/FB rate) despite never topping a HR/FB rate of 15.8 percent in the minor leagues. His BABIP is also elevated (.329) considering his poor line drive rate and relative lack of speed.
Davidson is the type of rookie who makes you glad that Aaron Judge is around to (likely) win the award because if Judge wasn’t there and Davidson ended up winning the award over some of the truly more deserving candidates we’ll get to in the upcoming slides it would be exceptionally frustrating for the more analytical baseball minds out there.