MLB Draft: Past busts haunt Reds' Greene, Padres' Gore

As high school pitchers selected early in the first round of the MLB Draft, history may be working against Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore.

High school pitchers are trending up.

For the third time in four years, Monday’s MLB Draft featured two high school pitchers within the first four overall picks. The Cincinnati Reds, with the second pick, pulled the trigger on right-handed sensation Hunter Greene before the San Diego Padres selected southpaw MacKenzie Gore.

Both Greene and Gore, ages 17 and 18 respectively, possess plus fastballs according to MLB.com, and the potential with maturity and experience to be front of the rotation starters.

However, history shows a rise to All-Star and Hall of Fame status will be a slow, upward battle which is ultimately unlikely.

Dating back to 1980, no high school pitchers drafted in the first 10 picks have been inducted into Cooperstown. Moreover, stratifying the list from 1980 to 2011, an 11 percent probability exists of a high school prospect proceeding to win 100-plus games in his major league career. But this number is diminished compared to the 59.3 percent chance of making a single appearance in an MLB game.

Nonetheless, a handful of successful starting pitchers have come out of high school.

In 1982, the New York Mets swiped Dwight Gooden en route to “Doc” finishing with 194 wins, 2,293 strikeouts, the 1985 NL Cy Young Award and 10 seasons of 10 or more victories. Seventeen years later, two-time World Series champion Josh Beckett was drafted by the Florida Marlins prior to recording 138 wins, 1,901 strikeouts and six campaigns of 10-plus wins.

Today, names like Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner validate the potential of high school draftees. Though the three NL West starters are the minority.

As of June 14, 2017, 54 high school top-10 draft picks (from 1980 to 2011) have totaled 1,712 wins and 22,619 strikeouts, producing an average of about 32 wins and 419 strikeouts per pitcher.

Thus, the trio – all who have at least 100 wins and 1,400 strikeouts – are not “ordinary.”

Post-2011, eight high school pitchers have been drafted within the top 10 picks of the MLB Draft. But no pitcher has reached the major leagues, yet alone Triple-A.

Granted, injuries occur, such as the arm issues of Max Fried (2012). Yet the years of making one’s major league debut inside of three professional seasons are long gone.

Now, a high school pitcher is lucky to reach the major leagues before his 21st birthday.

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Since the 2000 MLB Draft, just five pitchers have made a major league appearance as a 20-year-old or younger. Two of the five later went on to miss at least one full season due to injury. The other three are Greinke, Kershaw and Bumgarner.

While the signing bonuses are enticing for pitchers still classified as adolescents, playing college baseball is proven to produce a higher probability of reaching sold-out stadiums under the bright lights.

For college pitchers drafted within the top 10 picks between 1980 and 2011, 86 percent make the mound in the big leagues while just 14 percent go on to capture 100 or more career wins.

Hence, in this regard, although college pitchers average nearly 43 wins and 541 strikeouts, the odds of becoming a household name and surpassing the centennial mark in victories is very similar to that of high school pitchers.

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So, will Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore become the next Gooden and Kershaw?

Despite the slim chances, in the end, we will need to wait, keep an eye on minor league box scores and enjoy the numerous chapters which remain in both pitchers’ journeys.

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