Los Angeles Dodgers: What’s wrong with Rich Hill?

Rich Hill’s 2017 performance has the Los Angeles Dodgers scratching their heads. Is the veteran lefty’s late-career magic finally running out?

Virtually everything about Rich Hill‘s career has gone against the odds. After spending his first 10 seasons bouncing between six different teams in mediocre fashion, he inexplicably turned in four dominant starts for the Red Sox at the end of the 2015 season. The renaissance continued the following year with the A’s and Dodgers, helping Hill land a three-year, $48 million deal to stay in Los Angeles last offseason. Not bad for a pitcher closing in on his 37th birthday.

However, the first season of Hill’s new contract with the Dodgers hasn’t gotten off to an auspicious start. Through eight outings, the left-hander owns a 5.14 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 1.52 K/BB ratio. That’s a far cry from the 2.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 4.34 K/BB he posted in 24 starts between 2015 and 2016.

Yesterday’s outing was his worst yet: Hill allowed seven runs on eight hits over four innings against Cleveland. He walked two and hit two batters.

Of course, any discussion of Hill should address the injury issues that have plagued him even when pitching well. Specifically, the persistent blisters that have necessitated multiple trips to the disabled list. Another bout of blisters has already affected Hill this season, limiting him to only eight starts thus far. So we’re dealing with a relatively small sample size when compared to other pitchers who have been healthy through the first two and a half months.

Nevertheless, those eight outings have shown troubling signs for Hill, especially compared to his performance the last couple years. The most obvious number that jumps out is his bloated 5.9 BB/9 rate. It’s difficult for any pitcher to be successful while walking that many batters. Last season Hill managed a much more agreeable 2.7 BB/9.

Hill has also struggled with the long ball. He surrendered four home runs in 110.1 innings last year. This season he has already served up five homers in 35 frames. Hill’s ground ball rate has dropped from 45.3 percent to 38.2 percent since last season, while his fly ball rate has jumped from 35.8 percent to 46.1 percent. His 12.2 percent HR/FB (home run to fly ball) rate would be the highest in any of his big league campaigns.

More from Call to the Pen

All together, it adds up to a recipe for frustration.

Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs just published an article taking an in-depth look at some of the other problems affecting Hill in 2017. For one thing, his average fastball velocity has dropped 1.7 MPH, down to 89.5 MPH. That puts him among the pitchers who have lost the most zip on their heaters this year. While Hill’s prior success certainly wasn’t predicated on blowing the ball past anyone, such a decline could definitely make a difference.

Sullivan also points out that opposing hitters are taking a noticeably more patient approach against Hill so far this season. They’re swinging at fewer balls outside the strike zone and more balls inside the zone. He’s not fooling opponents like he has in the past, and we’re seeing the results.

So is there any tangible reason to believe Hill will turn things around soon? It’s hard to say. Nothing about his career path has been what you’d call conventional. Maybe the blister issue is still bothering him. Or at 37 years old, he’s simply experiencing natural decline, which is leading to a regression from his overachievement the past two years.

Next: MLB plans 'Players Weekend'

The Dodgers took a big risk on Hill, betting that his late-career resurgence was the real deal. With two more seasons on the books, they will hope he can shake off whatever’s ailing him and get back to being the pitcher he was a year ago. He won’t ever be a 30-start workhorse, but the Dodgers signed him to be a guy they can confidently turn to in a postseason scenario. There’s still time for that.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.