Boston Red Sox: The thorny Travis Shaw trade
By Oliver Jung
After dealing with bullpen unreliability in 2016, the Boston Red Sox found themselves further depleted last offseason: Koji Uehara and Brad Ziegler had hit free agency, leaving Boston without a bridge to closer Craig Kimbrel. Then, last December, it looked like reinforcements had arrived.
Dave Dombrowski was probably pleased with himself when he traded Travis Shaw and three prospects to Milwaukee for Tyler Thornburg. Not only did the move allow him to bolster the club’s bullpen with an arm with closing experience and a mid-90s fastball, but it also extracted a surprising amount of value from Shaw, whose production had flat-lined after the All-Star break. In addition, the third baseman’s exit avoided another headache with free-agent white elephant Pablo Sandoval and the three years/$53 million left on his contract. It was time for Panda to pull his (considerable) weight, for better or worse.
From David Stearns’ perspective, the Brewers were betting on Shaw’s power potential. Shaw turned 27 in April—pretty old for a prospect—but he hit a respectable 16 home runs in 2016 despite living under the Mendoza Line in the second half. More importantly, he swatted 13 in just 65 games in 2015, his rookie season. Plus, Shaw had experience at first base in Boston, which provided valuable insurance for Milwaukee’s gamble on Korean-league import Eric Thames.
As we inch closer to All-Star weekend in 2017, it appears Stearns fleeced Dombrowski last winter. Thornburg went down with a shoulder injury during spring training, eventually leading to season-ending thoracic outlet syndrome surgery on Friday. Without Shaw, the Red Sox are so desperate for production at third base that they might consider signing Jhonny Peralta, who St. Louis released on June 13. Meanwhile, the Mayor of Ding Dong City has mashed 12 of said ding-dongs while driving in 47 runs in the heart of the Brewers’ lineup.
Two of the three minor leaguers that Dombrowski sent to Milwaukee haven’t kicked off their season yet, but the highest-ranked of the bunch, Mauricio Dubon, is also hitting .289 in Double-A this year. He’s stealing bases like a madman, racking up 29 swipes in 65 games. Admittedly, Dubon is still a long ways off from making it to the big leagues—and even more so for Josh Pennington and Yeison Coca. There’s every chance none of the trio makes an MLB appearance.
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Even disregarding the prospects, though, the trade seems fairly lopsided. Thornburg had an inconsistent track record in Milwaukee, and the Red Sox hoped they were getting his 2016 self. Considering the list of pitchers who have recently dealt with thoracic outlet syndrome, the odds of that look bleak. If Thornburg manages to come back and pitch effectively in 2018, he has one more arbitration year remaining before free agency in 2020. In Boston’s best-case scenario, he provides two years of quality setup for Kimbrel.
Shaw, on the other hand, becomes arbitration-eligible in 2019 and won’t be a free agent until 2022. He leads the Brewers in RBI, and his .303 average is best on the team, too. His WAR so far this season is 1.5, ranking above the likes of Nelson Cruz and Brian Dozier. And unlike Thornburg, who would have pitched a few times a week, Shaw is in the lineup every day.
It’s possible that Shaw repeats his 2016 skid and drops off considerably in the coming months. Perhaps that’s even likely, given last year’s history and the three months Senior Circuit pitchers have had to adjust to his tendencies. Nevertheless, Milwaukee leads the NL Central largely thanks to its third baseman, and Stearns would undoubtedly make the trade again just for Shaw’s half-season of production. Throw in the three prospects, and the deal looks like a landslide.
Thankfully for Boston supporters, they can lick their wounds while their team battles the New York Yankees for AL East supremacy. Even with a weaker-than-expected bullpen and underperforming hot corner, Mookie Betts and company have risen to the Yankees’ challenge to rekindle the two franchises’ storied rivalry.
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But it must irk Sox fans to see the club near the bottom of the majors in home runs after being in the top 10 in 2016. Ironically, after finishing 15th last season, the Brewers now find themselves with the fifth-most homers in the league. Ding Dong City, it appears, has moved to Wisconsin.