Odds for Each Phillies’ Promotion Candidate
To earn advancement to the majors, prospects with outstanding production can influence teams out of the postseason hunt like the Philadelphia Phillies to find spots on their 25-man roster.
The Other July Deadline:
In many facets of employment, performance-based promotions require the qualifications for the position in order to fill an immediate need.
In this review, the percentages do not add up to 100 percent but are the odds of each player to join the parent club after the first half. And the last-reviewed MiLB regulars are more likely to receive a call-up before September. But keep in mind, if a starter with the Phils is blocking a minor leaguer, it affects the advancement percentages of that youngster. However, hot or cold streaks can change these estimates in short order.
After a strong showing in March (.366), second baseman Jesmuel Valentin‘s average dropped from .311 on April 20 to .229 on May 12 at the time of his separated shoulder. But he only hit .157 for his last 51 at-bats prior to diving for a ball and reinjuring a previous separation. And because he had shoulder surgery, he probably won’t be returning this season.
Odds: 1 percent.
Outfielder Roman Quinn again did not complete the first half but might return by late July. He was hitting .274 with 10 steals in 14 attempts but hadn’t completely earned consideration for a promotion. Of course, he’ll probably need all of August to demonstrate his readiness for the major leagues.
Odds: 5 percent.
In order for shortstop J.P. Crawford to advance to the Show, he will only need to bat .250 because his OBP is 119 points higher than his average. In fact, he has 37 walks to 42 strikeouts and he’ll probably hit .250 or more in 2018 for a promotion. And even if he goes on a tear after returning from a nagging groin strain, he’ll only don the red pinstripes during the final month.
Odds: 10 percent.
IN OTHER WORDS: “You don’t come up expecting to be a fan favorite. When I was a rookie, I was just trying to make a name for myself, but people already knew who I was and already had expectations for me.” – Tim “the Freak” Lincecum
Despite his power display and a .272 average, outfielder Nick Williams has not improved his plate discipline. And keep in mind, Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr will see the lion’s share of playing time in the second half with swapped outfielders going to contending franchises. But Williams still isn’t the best option if general manager Matt Klentak trades Michael Saunders or designates him for assignment.
Odds: 25 percent.
On a recent radio broadcast, Nick from South Philly questioned the host about first sackers Rhys Hoskins and Tommy Joseph. Why don’t the Phillies trade Joseph to make room for Hoskins? And the local personality replied that the GM doesn’t think he’s ready. That’s BS!
Even though the numbers would have Hoskins nearing an advancement, he finds himself behind Joseph, who has been very productive since May 1. However, Hoskins has cooled off lately: He’s averaging .218 with two homers and 10 RBIs for 78 at-bats since May 25, and he’s a right-side hitter like Joseph. Yeah, a promotion killer. Yes, he could break out of his slump tomorrow and bat .350, and a month from now circumstances might be different for many reasons.
Odds: 50 percent.
NICE CATCH: “Baseball is a rookie, his experience no bigger than the lump in his throat as he begins fulfillment of his dream.” – Ernie Harwell
As the radio show continued, Joe D. from the northeast complained about Cameron Rupp‘s lack of hitting and predicted Jorge Alfaro will soon be the starter behind the plate. Rupp is doing nothing! What’s Klentak waiting for? We want Alfaro now!
While Joseph keeps producing, Rupp is slumping for the second time this campaign. He’s averaging .117 with two home runs and five RBIs since May 14, and Andrew Knapp is batting .212 with two long balls and six RBIs since May 13. Ergo, catcher wanted.
After going zero for 20 to begin June, Alfaro is hitting .350 with two bombs and five RBIs to up his June average to .175 due to his last five games. The receiver batted .333 with three homers and 12 RBIs for April and hit .255 with 14 RBIs for May. Yes, management will want more than five contests to advance him. However, Knapp will get the first shot if Rupp’s struggles continue.
Odds: 65 percent.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “I remember I was a scared rookie, hitting .220 after the first three months of my baseball season, and doubting my ability.” – Carl “Yaz” Yastrzemski
Firstly, the obvious advancement is second baseman Scott Kingery from the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Overall, Kingery has a .302 average with 18 home runs and 37 RBIs. And although he’s batting .278 for June with two long balls and seven RBIs, he went four for four on June 1. So, he has a .220 mark with one bomb and five RBIs after the first of the month. Ergo, he’ll earn his promotion when he overcomes this brief adversity.
Odds: 90 percent.
Because the Philadelphia Phillies are at the bottom of the MLB, Klentak will only keep Saunders if the right fielder returns to his first-half form from last year. Otherwise, the exec will call up an outfielder from Lehigh Valley. And right fielder Dylan Cozens is a left-handed hitter with power, which would be a perfect fit, and he’s hitting .307 for May and June with 11 homers and 33 RBIs. When will he be ready? When will the front office decide? Four weeks.
Odds: 80 percent.
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Stats are through June 15.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
Plate discipline:
- Crawford: K% at 17.2% and BB% at 14.8%
- Williams for 2017: K% at 30.6% and BB% at 3.3%
- Williams for 2016: K% at 25.8% and BB% at 3.6%
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
Stats are through June 15.
Triple-A Hitting:
- Hoskins, 24: 66 Gms., 266 PA, a .291 Avg., a .387 OBP, a .577 SLG, a .286 ISO, a .299 BABIP, 14 HR, 49 RBI, a .964 OPS and a 1.1 WARP.
- Cozens, 23: 63 Gms., 253 PA, a .243 Avg., a .304 OBP, a .478 SLG, a .235 ISO, a .304 BABIP, 14 HR, 46 RBI, a .783 OPS and a 0.8 WARP.
- Alfaro, 24: 51 Gms., 217 PA, a .267 Avg., a .300 OBP, a .403 SLG, a .136 ISO, a .368 BABIP, 5 HR, 31 RBI, a .702 OPS and a 1.0 WARP.
- Williams, 23.5: 64 Gms., 245 PA, a .274 Avg., a .307 OBP, a .504 SLG, a .230 ISO, a .347 BABIP, 13 HR, 40 RBI, an .812 OPS and 1.6 WARP.
Next: Promotions for Phillies' Prospects
Double-A Hitting:
- Kingery, 23: 61 Gms., 281 PA, a .302 Avg., a .376 OBP, a .609 SLG, a .306 ISO, a .306 BABIP, 18 HR, 37 RBI, a .985 OPS, 3.3 WARP, 16 SB, 2 CS and an 8.5 Spd.