Baltimore Orioles: Chris Tillman and the contract year from hell

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Chris Tillman hoped to earn a nice paycheck this season. Instead, he’s just trying to get through his next start.

Chris Tillman probably felt pretty good heading into Spring Training. The Baltimore Orioles right-hander was coming off a solid 2016 campaign in which he won 16 games to the tune of a 3.77 ERA. With his contract expiring at season’s end, another strong year would almost certainly make him a popular man in free agency.

Then the shoulder issues started flaring up. Tillman received a cortisone shot in March to treat soreness in his right shoulder, putting his availability for Opening Day in doubt. Indeed, Tillman missed the first month of the season and made his 2017 debut on May 7. He turned in five scoreless innings against the White Sox. What a relief, right? All systems go.

Er, not quite. Tillman allowed three runs in 4.1 innings in his next outing, and things only grew worse from there. Of his nine starts so far this year, only one has qualified as a quality start (6/4 vs. Bos). In two he has failed to get past the third inning. One of those was likely the worst outing of Tillman’s career. He lasted just 1.1 frames against the Yankees on June 10, serving up nine runs on seven hits, three of them home runs. The shelling inflated his season ERA from 5.59 to 8.01.

In his subsequent two starts, Tillman has shown no signs of turning things around. Last night he surrendered five runs on eight hits over four innings to Cleveland, though the Orioles offense mercifully bailed him out from taking another much-deserved loss. Overall, Tillman owns a 1-5 record, 8.39 ERA, 2.17 WHIP and 1.18 K/BB ratio in 39.2 innings on the year.

While a .382 BABIP and 64.5 percent left-on-base rate aren’t helping, Tillman has shown signs of concern in many areas. His 5.0 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 rates would be his worst marks in those categories since 2010. He has also been victimized by the long ball, as he is allowing two home runs per nine innings.

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Those numbers are enough to give any pitchers nightmares. In a contract year, they’re absolutely terrifying. Over the previous eight seasons of his career, Tillman had quietly built a reputation as a dependable starting pitcher in a tough division. From 2012-2016, he posted a 3.81 ERA (108 ERA+) and 1.25 WHIP, and those figures are somewhat raised by a 4.99 ERA in 2015. He might not fit the traditional definition of an “ace” for many people, but that’s effectively the role he has played for the O’s.

You can’t help but wonder if the shoulder or some other physical ailment is still bothering him. Otherwise, it’s hard to explain why the 29-year-old former All-Star has imploded so suddenly. Manager Buck Showalter even sounded noncommittal to keeping Tillman in the rotation, which would be bad news for a pitcher hoping to find some way – any way – to salvage his season as a quality major league starter.

Had he approximated his 2016 performance, Tillman likely would have done quite well for himself next winter on an open market that always values pitching. While Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta would have received most of the attention among starters, he would have been a respectable second-tier option for teams not interested in (or priced out of) the big names. Not due to turn 30 until next April, Tillman could have been in line for a four- or five-year deal for good money.

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Of course, Tillman still has plenty of time to round back into form, but teams aren’t going to forget this awful stretch. If he continues to struggle, he’s probably looking at a cheap, one-year contract (perhaps to remain in Baltimore?) in hopes of re-establishing his value in 2018. In any case, he’s surely not going demand what he would have before the start of the season, which is a tough pill to swallow for a player aiming for that free agency payday.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

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