Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw Plagued by Homers

Clayton Kershaw is piecing together another well-rounded season for the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. But despite another strong start for the southpaw, he’s allowing more home runs than ever before.

It’s safe to say Clayton Kershaw has an issue. And no, it doesn’t have to do with the postseason.

The southpaw’s stats aren’t bad, unless you compare them to his numbers from the past few years. He boasts a 2.61 ERA with nearly 100 more strikeouts than walks, a .93 WHIP and a 10-2 record.

But one aspect of Kershaw’s game has been troublesome this year, as seen in Monday’s victory against the New York Mets. He can’t seem to avoid the home-run ball.

Kershaw has already allowed a career-high 17 bombs this year, and it’s only June. New York was the first team to clobber four homers off the Dodgers’ ace in one outing, but it was the third time this season that he allowed at least three in one game.

While the lefty has been prone to the long ball at times, this recent splurge has seemed unexpected, considering that he allowed just eight home runs last year in 149 innings – he’s pitched 103 1/3 innings this season. Of the 30 earned runs he’s yielded, 22 are connected to home runs.

This doesn’t mean Kershaw has been “figured out” by any means. But when more than 20 percent of the hits allowed are home runs, something must not be working.

Each pitch in Kershaw’s arsenal has still been pretty effective, although his numbers have spiked slightly. Opponents usually hit worse against his off-speed stuff than they have this season, particularly his slider.

Average/Slugging Percentage against off-speed pitches in Kershaw’s career (via FanGraphs) http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=2036&position=P

2008: Slider (.500/.500), Curveball (.153/.200)

2009: Slider (.161/.161), Curveball (.119/.139)

2010: Slider (.140/.163), Curveball (.290/.355)

2011: Slider (.113/.187), Curveball (.163/.184)

2012: Slider (.197/.365), Curveball (.083/.099)

2013: Slider (.194/.306), Curveball (.096/.096)

2014: Slider (.150/.238), Curveball (.118/.173)

2015: Slider (.175/.260), Curveball (.116/.169)

2016: Slider (.138/.191), Curveball (.118/.161)

2017: Slider (.222/.311), Curveball (.121/.348)

Players are hitting above .200 against Kershaw’s slider for the first time since his rookie campaign, when he threw just six sliders the entire season. Three homers have been smacked against sliders this year, mostly because they didn’t break as much as usual.

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Maybe the biggest surprise has been that Kershaw’s curveball has seemed hittable this year. Heading into 2017, the three-time Cy Young winner yielded just three home runs off curveballs. Hitters have mashed four spinners out of the park this season.

Hitters have demonstrated more power against Kershaw’s off-speed pitches, but have still struggled against them. Expect the bloated numbers against them to dwindle a little bit, unless the home run spree continues into the second half of the season.

Players that have pounced Kershaw this year have had relatively good seasons.

Mark Reynolds and Nolan Arenado each touched him for a bomb – both are hitting around .300 and have crushed 15 bombs each. Even veterans like Jay Bruce, Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rizzo are having above-average seasons. So give credit where credit is due.

Ryan Zimmerman launches his NL leading 17th home run off Clayton Kershaw pic.twitter.com/1CiCOcwqXr
— FanSided (@FanSided) June 7, 2017

Don’t expect to see this power surge to continue. Kershaw has time and time again shown he can overcome adversity, even without overpowering stuff. He’s still the best pitcher in baseball – sorry Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, it’s the truth.

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If it does become a prolonged problem, however, Kershaw could be looking at his worst regular season since his rookie year.