Upcoming Decisions for the Phillies GM
By mid-July, the front office will determine promotions for the top prospects at the highest two minor league levels in the Philadelphia Phillies’ pipeline after the first half.
The Tie-Breaking Month:
If you need a deciding factor for any situation, odd numbers are the solution whether it’s three, five, seven or nine.
During the course of any 162, management makes transactions that puzzle their fans, who add up these moves over time and conclude the GM is incompetent. And when the locals combine losing with these perceived errors, the calls for dismissal will lead to a firing of a pitching or hitting coach, a skipper and a general manager. Usually, the decision-maker will terminate a coach to quiet the faithful. But if the product on the field doesn’t improve, the manager and the exec respectively will receive their pink slips; however, the higher-up may have an addition season to satisfy the paying customers.
Regarding those so-called annoying mistakes, some are not poor choices by the front office. Rule-wise, every franchise can only provide a slot to 15 additional players besides the active 25. And signers who are 19 or older have four years before roster protection becomes necessary. So, before many parent clubs advance a youngster to the majors, they must have a satisfactory answer to every question on their checklist: for instance, offense, plate discipline and defense.
If a minor leaguer in his second campaign has two solid months at Double-A, a call-up – even in September – will require a 40-man roster spot and protection from the Rule 5 draft. In other words, the team promoting him will forfeit two years of control, which means the star will be a free agent two summers earlier. And if he leaves at that time or can’t live up to a long-term commitment with his original team – any guesses? – fans will perceive incompetence by the GM. Ergo, a no-win situation.
Barring an immediate need, an organization doesn’t have to replace a productive regular. A temporary trip to the disabled list by a starter is usually a good opportunity for a fill-in to demonstrate his talents for the decision-makers. In other words, management is not going to sacrifice two controlling seasons for a six-week stint or a turn or two in the rotation.
With July 31 approaching, a general manager’s routine powwow at the Triple-A affiliate created a chuckle between the GM and the skipper. Beat writers – the exec pointed out – thought the visit meant a deal may be in the works, and they wanted the scoop. Of course, the scheduled meeting and monthly trip by the decision-maker is just part of his job in April or July, but he smiled with bemusement as scribes clamored for any scrap of information.
IN OTHER WORDS: “The sports world is an echo chamber. All it takes is one quote from a general manager and a thousand sports columns bloom.” – Michael Lewis
Switching Howie Kendrick to second base opened a spot in the outfield for Cameron Perkins on the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs to showcase his ability. Meanwhile, the locals had wanted second sacker Scott Kingery. At that time, however, he had averaged .220 from June 2 through June 14, but he rebounded after this limited adversity to bat .364 through June 24. So, why is there a rush? The regular with the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils won’t need a 40-man slot until after the 2019 campaign. On the other hand, Perkins, the already-protected outfielder, has earned almost a month to impress general manager Matt Klentak.
Although only Mark Leiter‘s third of three starts with Lehigh Valley was solid, he is the fill-in for Jerad Eickhoff. On the other hand, right-hander Thomas Eshelman had eye-popping stats before his shaky appearance on June 22: four earned runs during six innings. But the hurler will not require 40-spot protection until after the summer of ’19. Ergo, don’t expect Eshelman or Kingery in 2017, barring a totally unexpected event.
First baseman Rhys Hoskins will not need to be on the 40-man roster until after the 2018 season. But the first sacker’s situation is different than Kingery’s because Hoskins is nearly ready for a promotion. Unfortunately, Tommy Joseph is blocking him. Of course, Cesar Hernandez has also been very productive but the Philadelphia Phillies have a leeway of another 162 at second base, while Kingery is at Triple-A.
Triple-A Comparison:
- Joseph, almost 25 in 2016: 27 Gms., 100 PA, a .347 Avg., 6 HR, 17 RBI, a .981 OPS and a 0.7 WARP.
- Joseph’s 300-AB Projection: 81 Gms., 300 PA, 18 HR, 51 RBI and a 2.1 WARP.
- Hoskins, 24: 75 Gms., 306 PA, a .305 Avg., 17 HR, 60 RBI, a .997 OPS and a 1.6 WARP.
- See statistical comparison for advanced numbers (last page).
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “Being general manager is like being the de facto owner. It’s like wearing the crown of ‘Restaurant Man’ without being ‘Restaurant Man.’ You’re trying to run the business, but you’re running the ranch without riding the big horse.” – Joe Bastianich
In the outfield for ’18, Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr have two positions, while Perkins will probably be in line for a reserve role. Meantime, Nick Williams did not accomplish plate discipline and probably won’t advance. Dylan Cozens, on the other hand, doesn’t have a good strikeout percentage either, but power hitters are a legitimate exception.
In the front office, an intern questioned a scout: Why didn’t the Phillies call up Williams? Well, he could have 20 homers like Jimmy “J-Roll” Rollins for a summer or two, but he won’t do it annually. If he could bat .280 – the scout continued – with average results regarding walks and punch outs, he’d be here now. But he didn’t.
Plate Discipline:
- Perkins: K% at 14.5% and BB% at 11.2%
- Williams: K% at 29.4% and BB% at 3.6%
- See plate-discipline comparison for performance-percentage ratings (last page).
When it comes to advancing from the Allentown affiliate to the red pinstripes, a future star needs two good months out of three. He can have a cold April with a hot May and a decent June to earn the promotion if the parent club has a need: One bad month isn’t a problem. Ergo, it’s the best two out of three.
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Stats are through June 23.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
Triple-A Plate Discipline:
- Cozens: K% at 30.1% and BB% at 9.3%
- Perkins: K% at 14.5% and BB% at 11.2%
- Williams: K% at 29.4% and BB% at 3.6%
- J.P. Crawford: K% at 17.5% and BB% at 13.7%
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
Stats are through June 23.
Triple-A Hitting:
- Joseph, almost 25 in 2016: 27 Gms., 100 PA, a .347 Avg., a .370 OBP, a .611 SLG, a .263 ISO, a .346 BABIP, 6 HR, 17 RBI, a .981 OPS and a 0.7 WARP.
- Hoskins, 24: 74 Gms., 301 PA, a .305 Avg., a .395 OBP, a .598 SLG, a .293 ISO, a .308 BABIP, 17 HR, 58 RBI, a .993 OPS and a 1.6 WARP.
- Perkins, 26.5: 63 Gms., 241 PA, a .298 Avg., a .388 OBP, a .476 SLG, a .178 ISO, a .333 BABIP, 6 HR, 21 RBI, a .258 OPS and a 1.6 WARP.
- Williams, 23.5: 72 Gms., 279 PA, a .276 Avg., a .313 OBP, a .502 SLG, a .226 ISO, a .347 BABIP, 14 HR, 42 RBI, an .815 OPS and 1.7 WARP.
Next: A Surprise Promotion Ahead for Phillies' Pitching
Double-A Hitting:
- Kingery, 23: 67 Gms., 307 PA, a .303 Avg., a .372 OBP, a .601 SLG, a .299 ISO, a .314 BABIP, 18 HR, 42 RBI, a .973 OPS, 3.5 WARP, 19 SB, 3 CS and an 8.8 Spd.