Philadelphia Phillies: Can Aaron Altherr’s success at the plate last?
Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Aaron Altherr is in the middle of a breakout season at the plate, but can he keep things up?
The Phillies are a tough team to watch these days. Still amidst the rebuilding process, they already have lost 51 games this season. The farm system is doing what it needs to, but fans have plenty of waiting to do before this team is a contender again. One of the few pleasures of watching your team rebuild is being able to see players grow first-hand. In the last couple of seasons, we’ve seen Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez establish themselves as quality everyday players. This year, Aaron Altherr is the player to look at.
Although he was never really considered a top prospect, Altherr was able to grind his way through the minors and get a chance to play in Philadelphia. His first look in the majors came back in 2015. During that 39 game stint, Altherr was able to accumulate 1.8 fWAR and a .827 OPS. A wrist injury cost him the majority of the ’16 season, and he was unable to get into rhythm. Now Altherr is healthy, and he’s been crushing the ball lately.
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Looking at the numbers
In 67 games so far this season, Altherr owns a .283/.353/.529 slash line to go along with 13 homers, 16 doubles and 41 RBI. At a glance, those numbers look pretty good. He’s hitting for power and he’s getting on base. What more could you ask for?
Unfortunately, it appears that these are hollow numbers. After digging a little deeper, it becomes apparent that Altherr’s success looks less than sustainable. For one, he’s striking out in more than 1/4 of his at-bats (25.2%). He walks just 8% of the time, and what’s most concerning: he owns a .344 BABIP this season. Some players have the profile to maintain that high of an average on balls in play. Altherr is not one of those players.
The players that carry that sort of BABIP across their careers are fast, and hit a lot of ground balls. Altherr has some speed, but hits line drives only 18.1% of the time. What he does do is hit a lot of fly balls (38.2%), and 1 out of every 5 of those is a home run. At this present time, Altherr has a HR/FB rate of 20%. That’s double the league average.
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So the question is, can Aaron Altherr make his success last? The short answer is no. At least, if he does, it won’t be with the same approach. With a BABIP 44 points above than the league average and a HR/FB rate twice as high as the norm, Altherr is destined to regress. For the sake of the present and future Phillies, Altherr should consider flattening his bat path.