Diamondbacks: A psychological argument against the Chase Field humidor
If the Arizona Diamondbacks were to install a humidor and experience the natural regression to the mean they are likely to experience, the humidor would be blamed.
I recently wrote about MLB asking the Arizona Diamondbacks to hold off on implementing the humidor until next year. Even though MLB has asked for the delay, I believe it is a decision that benefits the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks had planned to install the humidor during this season and I proposed it would be a bad move to do so.
An analysis by physicist Alan Nathan at the Hardball Times predicted the humidor would reduce home runs at Chase Field by 25 to 50 percent. This would result in a reduction in runs scored by the Diamondbacks and their opponents. For this article, I’m going to set that aside and focus on the psychological aspect of making this mid-season change.
Before the season started FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Clay Davenport projected the Diamondbacks would win 77 or 78 games, a winning percentage around .480. They are currently 51-31, a .622 winning percentage. As well as they have played so far, they are not likely to continue to win at a .622 clip.
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The FanGraphs depth charts have them projected to go 41-39 from this point on, a .509 winning percentage. This would still get them to 92 wins and a playoff spot, but it would be a big drop from their current winning ways. This is a more realistic expectation for the Diamondbacks than to expect them to continue to play .622 ball.
Enter the humidor. If the Diamondbacks were to install a humidor mid-season and the team goes from a .622 team to a .509 team like the FanGraphs depth charts project, where would people lay the blame? On the humidor, of course.
It wouldn’t be true. It wouldn’t be the fault of the humidor that the team regressed. They should be expected to regress. It would just be very easy to blame the humidor for the team’s performance in the second half. If the team were to miss the playoffs, that would be the story of the year for the Diamondbacks. The headline would read, “Arizona’s season doomed by the humidor.” Announcers would give the team’s pre-humidor record and their record with the humidor.
An additional factor is the team’s current home record of 31-13, a .705 winning percentage. They are not likely to continue to win 70 percent of their home games. When regression hits and they win 50 to 60 percent of their home games in the second half, the humidor would be blamed.
If you don’t believe in the projections, consider the recent history of teams who played well in the first half. Over the last 10 years, there have been 80 teams with a first-half winning percentage of .550 or better. Fifty-seven of those teams were worse in the second half (71%). These 80 teams combined for a .580 winning percentage in the first half and a .546 winning percentage in the second half.
The Diamondbacks currently have a winning percentage of .622, so perhaps they should be compared to better teams. Over the last 10 years, there have been 25 teams with a first-half winning percentage of .600 or better. Twenty of those 25 teams were worse in the second half (80%). These 25 teams combined for a .611 winning percentage in the first half and a .561 winning percentage in the second half.
We’ll do this one more time. Over the last 10 years, there have been six teams with a first-half winning percentage of .621 or better. Five of these six teams were worse in the second half (83%). These six teams combined for a .630 winning percentage in the first half and a .524 winning percentage in the second half.
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Whether you go by projections or history, the Diamondbacks are likely to be worse in the second half. If they were to install a humidor and it coincided with the team playing worse, the humidor would be blamed. It would be setting the humidor up as the fall guy and fans and players might clamor for it to be removed before next season. If the Diamondbacks are serious about using a humidor, they shouldn’t sabotage those plans by installing it in the middle of a very good season.