MLB All Star Surprises

The MLB All Star rosters were announced last night, and many of the game’s most talented and popular stars will be heading to Miami next week for the festivities. Here are some of out biggest surprises from the unveiling of the rosters.

If you haven’t seen the rosters yet, here they are, separated by league. Players with an asterisk next to their names have been voted in as starters.

American League

Justin Smoak* (1B, TOR), Jose Altuve* (2B, HOU), Carlos Correa* (SS, HOU), Jose Ramirez* (3B, CLE),  Salvador Perez* (C, KC), Aaron Judge* (OF, NYY), Mike Trout* (OF, LAA), George Springer* (OF, HOU), Corey Dickerson* (DH, TB), Gary Sanchez (C, NYY), Yonder Alonso (1B, OAK), Starlin Castro (2B, NYY), Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL), Miguel Sano (3B, MIN), Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE), Mookie Betts (OF, BOS), Avisail Garcia (OF, CHW), Michael Brantley (OF, CLE), Nelson Cruz (DH, SEA).

As for the pitchers, most of the usual suspects are on the list, with a couple of surprises.

Chris Sale (SP, BOS), Dallas Keuchel (SP, HOU), Ervin Santana (SP, MIN), Jason Vargas (SP, KC), Luis Severino (SP, NYY), Yu Darvish (SP, TEX), Michael Fulmer (SP, DET), Corey Kluber (SP, CLE), Lance McCullers Jr. (SP, HOU), Craig Kimbrel (RP, BOS), Andrew Miller (RP, CLE), Dellin Betances (RP, NYY).

Out of these All Stars, Mike Trout will likely need to be replaced due to his current stint on the disabled list, and the AL final vote candidates (below) won’t be of much help there. Outside of the outfielders already on the team, Lorenzo Cain of the Royals would be the next-best option in terms of fWAR (2.9) this season, but if we’re going for more of an offensive threat, Steven Souza Jr. of the Rays (137 wRC+, fourth among AL outfielders) or Khris Davis of the A’s (129, 7th) could be options to consider. Josh Reddick has the same wRC+ as Davis, but with a number of Astros already on the team, the league could go in another direction. At the same time, the Astros have been a dominant force in the AL this season, so why not add one more?

Final Vote Nominees:

Elvis Andrus (SS, TEX), Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS), Didi Gregorius (SS, NYY), Logan Morrison (1B, TB), Mike Moustakas (3B, KC).

Of these five, Logan Morrison, or LoMo, is easily the most deserving. He has the highest fWAR (2.8) by a small margin over Bogaerts (2.7), but his wRC+ is at least 29 points higher than any other option. It would also be nice to see another Tampa Bay Ray instead of another representative from one of the bigger market teams. My guess for the final vote: Bogaerts makes it.

National League

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Ryan Zimmermann* (1B, WAS), Daniel Murphy* (2B, WAS), Zack Cozart* (SS, CIN), Nolan Arenado* (3B, COL), Buster Posey* (C, SF), Bryce Harper* (OF, WAS), Charlie Blackmon* (OF, COL), Marcell Ozuna* (MIA, OF), Yadier Molina (C, STL), Paul Goldschmidt (1B, ARZ), Joey Votto (1B, CIN), DJ LeMahieu (2B, COL), Josh Harrison (2B, PIT), Jake Lamb (3B, ARZ), Corey Seager (SS, LAD), Cody Bellinger (OF, LAD), Giancarlo Stanton (OF, MIA), Michael Conforto (OF, NYM), Ender Inciarte (OF, STL).

And now for the pitching staff, which is definitely more reliever-heavy than the AL squad.

Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD), Max Scherzer (SP, WAS), Robbie Ray (SP, MIA), Zack Greinke (SP, ARZ) Carlos Martinez (SP, STL), Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS), Kenley Jansen (RP, LAD), Greg Holland (RP, COL), Wade Davis (CHC, RP), Brad Hand (RP, SD), Corey Knebel (RP, MIL), Pat Neshek (RP, PHI).

The NL team will likely have to replace Michael Conforto, who hit the disabled list this weekend. After much talk about his declining skill set this past offseason, Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates could be the best option to take that spot on the roster. Cutch has a 130 wRC+ this year, tied with utility man Chris Taylor of the Dodgers for tops among NL outfielders. Taylor’s flexibility around the diamond could give him a leg up, however.

Final Vote Nominees:

Justin Bour (1B, MIA), Kris Bryant (3B, CHC), Anthony Rendon (3B, WAS), Mark Reynolds (1B, COL), Justin Turner (3B, LAD). Guess for who makes it: Rendon, because Nats fans already voted three of their own in as starters. Bour could be a sleeper pick here since he’s the hometown guy.

These are the rosters. Now here are some of the oddities that we found.

Where are the Cubbies?

There are only five teams above the .500 mark in the National League and the Cubs aren’t one of them. At 41-41, they currently sit two games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. Raise your hand if you saw that coming. Now put it down, liar.

The Cubs have all of one representative that is definitely bound for Miami, but every team is guaranteed at least one. Wade Davis is one of six relief options available to National League (and Cubs) manager Joe Maddon, and that got me to thinking: What if the lack of Cubs on the roster is all by design?

Sure, the fan vote didn’t help matters much, and the Cubs aren’t necessarily mashing the ball this year, but Maddon has the final say on the rosters after the fan vote, and we’ve seen managers play favorites with their own guys in the past. Maybe Maddon is giving the majority of his guys a full week off to rest and recoup for the days ahead in which they’ll have to make up some ground.

Add to that the fact that their NLDS opponent (Dodgers would presumably face the wild card winner given their six game lead for best record in NL), the Washington Nationals, have a total of five reps in the game (three starters and two starting pitchers), and that week’s rest could pay huge dividends come playoff time.

If Kris Bryant gets voted in this week, that doesn’t mean that Maddon has to play him by any means. This could all work right into his hands.

I could also be overthinking this a tad.

Justin Turner and Travis Shaw

While Justin Turner is on the final ballot, there is no guarantee that he’ll make the club. There are a lot of people that aren’t Dodger fans out there, which could sway plenty of votes to the hometown player Justin Bour, the dreamy-eyed Kris Bryant, or Anthony Rendon of the Nationals, given that their fans have already voted in three of their players as starters.

Turner is batting .382 and has a .472 on-base percentage. His wRC+ (182) is second in the National League behind the injured Freddie Freeman (203), and 16 points higher than the next-best player. It’s 52 points higher than All Star reserve third baseman Jake Lamb.

In terms of WAR, Turner (3.7) ranks second in the NL, again to a first baseman, but this time it’s to Paul Goldschmidt (3.9). Turner has done all of this work while playing in only 58 games this season, which may be why he wasn’t added straight away, but he’s been so good that it deserves an All Star nod.

My argument for Travis Shaw isn’t going to be that he is more deserving than some of the other players that have been added to the roster. Third base is a deep position, and I get that. But Shaw is arguably the best hitter on what of the great surprises (biggest surprises?) of 2017 in Milwaukee. Finding him a spot would have been a nice touch, especially with the story that goes with his journey from Boston to Milwaukee as the Red Sox had seemingly given up on him. Now he’s playing All Star caliber baseball with his new club. Little stories like that help grow the game (which I hear is important to the league), not having a few clubs dominate entire rosters.