Seattle Mariners pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma has another injury setback

The already struggling starting rotation of the Seattle Mariners won’t have Hisashi Iwakuma ready anytime soon.

Seattle Mariners pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma’s return to the rotation has been put off further after another setback in his recovery from an injury that landed him on the DL in the middle of May. Despite treatment that included a platelet rich plasma injection in his shoulder, Iwakuma still isn’t ready to start throwing. His continued absence puts more pressure on Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto to make a move to help the team’s starting rotation for the stretch run.

Iwakuma’s health has been a concern for some time. After pitching for the Mariners for four years from 2012 to 2015, he became a free agent. It looked like he would sign a three-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but the Dodgers pulled the offer after they saw the results of his physical. He ended up re-signing with the Mariners.

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The Mariners’ current contract with Iwakuma started as a one-year deal for $10 million with vesting options for the next two seasons. He needed to pitch at least 162 innings and not end last season with an injury to have his contract kick in for this year, which he did. He pitched 199 innings with a 4.12 ERA, the highest of his career. He is being paid $10 million for this season and must pitch either 162 innings this year or a total of 324 innings over 2016-17 to have his $10 million option picked up for next year. Now that he’s been on the DL since May, he’s unlikely to get there.

Even before going on the DL, Iwakuma was struggling. He had a 4.35 ERA that could have been much worse (6.41 FIP). His strikeout rate (4.7 K/9) was the lowest of his career and his walk rate (3.5 BB/9) was the highest. He’s also allowed more home runs per nine innings than in any season in his career and a higher hard-hit percentage than in any other year.

There were also signs of injury during his first six starts. Iwakuma’s fastball used to sit in the 88-90 range. Just last year he averaged 87.8 mph on his fastball. This year, his fastball is averaging 85 mph. Three miles per hour is a significant drop for a starting pitcher in the major leagues. Only three other pitchers in baseball have a slower average fastball speed than Iwakuma and they include 40-year-old Bronson Arroyo, who is on the DL and unlikely to pitch in the big leagues again, 34-year-old Jered Weaver, who is also on the DL, and 42-year-old R.A. Dickey, who is not only old, he’s a knuckleball pitcher.

Iwakuma has been shut down from throwing for a week. He received a PRP and cortisone injection.

— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) July 4, 2017

At this point, the Mariners can’t trust that Iwakuma will be back at all this year. They’ll also be without Drew Smyly, who will undergo Tommy John surgery soon, and Felix Hernandez has not pitched well since his return from the DL (5.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). The current rotation is being pieced together with Elmer’s Glue and duct tape.

Thirteen different pitchers have started games for the Mariners and their starting pitchers rank 24^th out of 30 teams in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement. The team’s best starting pitcher is James Paxton, whose career high in innings pitched in a season is 121 innings. He’s at 74 innings already. Even some of the pitchers who have pitched well have concerns because their peripheral stats don’t match their success.

Ariel Miranda leads the team in starts and has a solid 3.82 ERA, but with a 5.14 FIP and 5.31 xFIP. This suggests his ERA is likely to go up in the second half. The same is true of Sam Gaviglio (3.44 ERA, 5.70 FIP, 4.77 xFIP). Andrew Moore was recently called up from the minor leagues and has only started two games, but the pattern holds with him also (3.60 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 5.05 xFIP).

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Despite their pitching woes, the Mariners are still within range of a Wild Card spot. A recent 3-7 stretch has dropped them to three games back, but a good stretch of winning play would keep them in the hunt. Jerry Dipoto is never afraid to make a deal. It wouldn’t be surprising if he finds some pitching before the trade deadline passes at the end of this month.